MJO812 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Ukie looks nice for the snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: You do realize that we dont need alot of precip for a few inches of snow ? Ukie and cmc gives the city 2-4. Gfs is coming around. Stop feeding the trolls. Everything he said is wishful thinking from his point of view and contains no meteorology. Just assumptions based on a skewed view of patterns of the past. Again, this is not the 80s. Just because we have the tpv close by doesn’t mean it can’t and will not snow. ill ride the seasonal trend for west trends at the last minute. Even if we only get an inch or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 It should again be noted that there is a large difference at 500 mb between the 0z ECMWF and 12z GFS. The 12z CMC has a 500 mb pattern that is much closer to that depicted on the 0z ECMWF. Given its higher resolution, I believe the ECMWF likely has a better handle on the 500 mb pattern right now than the 12z GFS does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 You can look at it two ways. Winter of 13-14 featured several storms in Jan/Feb with the PV close by and bitter cold air with moderate snow events...However March of that year yielded cold and dry when the PV sunk back south again. Just depends on little nuances that can make a big difference either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 The latest model skill scores are Euro#1...UK#2....CMC#3...GFS....#4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 Wow the GFS below the CMC-that's a new low on so many levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 hour ago, Ericjcrash said: Definitely dried up this run, brings the goods next week though . Eric and Nutley and anyone else , I realize that this is the "model discussion thread" and although this weekend is NOT a non snow event yet ,,,,,much like the GEM is showing this for the 4th or 5th and a possible storm, these same models last week were calling for the possibility of a very big storm between the 28th and 30th. I understand that nothing is ever guaranteed , its a long time off and they are only model runs.The weenie in me likes the pictures but it seems the models have been all over the place with previous events this winter and have not gotten a handle on things even when very close to events thus far this year. It appears to me at least that as far as this weekend the models are having a very hard time with this different setup and the dynamics,,,but I am just a novice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 EURO much worse than last few runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 For Saturday "storm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 6 minutes ago, mikem81 said: EURO much worse than last few runs Yeah that’s not good. I’m sticking to my guns and not throwing in the towel until sampling tomorrow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 50 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said: Yes a cold pattern can be suppressive but this is not always the case. I remember several past MECS with temps in the upper teens to lower 20s, so just saying its cold and that's that is not constructive. Yes. I don't really agree with the notion that an unseasonably cold pattern will necessarily lead to bone-dry conditions and suppressed systems. I would think that the overall pattern would be far more important in influencing snowfall patterns. Although probably stated numerous times, January 1996 was frigid before the blizzard and even the following week before the thaw. January 2005 was also frigid before and after the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 23 minutes ago, mikem81 said: EURO much worse than last few runs It does try to develop a western ridge for next week, that would significantly increase the chance of a Miller A system, but it's been on again off again with it. If you're really hoping for snow that would be the one to watch, maybe it won't evaporate like this week's big threat did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 hour ago, ILoveWinter said: Yes a cold pattern can be suppressive but this is not always the case. I remember several past MECS with temps in the upper teens to lower 20s, so just saying its cold and that's that is not constructive. The problem really isn't the arctic intrusion, it's the lack of blocking. We stay cold because the trough in the East reloads, but look how progressive the trough is on the Euro now for next weekend. Because of how progressive the pattern is, we are trying to thread the needle, and it looks increasingly like no dice this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 For those interested, the Euro does give the area a glancing blow near the end of next week. The pattern is still progressive, but there was at least a phase this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: For those interested, the Euro does give the area a glancing blow near the end of next week. The pattern is still progressive, but there was at least a phase this run. What is progressive about a 500mb trough locked in the northeast for 10+ days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 4 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: What is progressive about a 500mb trough locked in the northeast for 10+ days? The trough moves through and then reloads. The pattern is stagnant but the flow is progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 35 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The problem really isn't the arctic intrusion, it's the lack of blocking. We stay cold because the trough in the East reloads, but look how progressive the trough is on the Euro now for next weekend. Because of how progressive the pattern is, we are trying to thread the needle, and it looks increasingly like no dice this time around. I tried explaining this about the weekend yesterday, I wasn’t doing it because I was trying to take people’s snow away or I’m “warm biased”, but the fact remains that this current setup with the TPV is completely, totally different than what we had for the last few events that moved west at the last minute. “It’s going to come west like the others did at the last minute” is not going to work this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 The Jan 3-5th time frame looks like a great time period for a big storm. The PV begins to relax so suppression wouldn't be a huge problem. Also, all models have some miller A during that time frame, just different outcomes. 12z Euro: An attempt for a triple phase on the east coast and the western ridge looks nice as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 11 minutes ago, Newman said: The Jan 3-5th time frame looks like a great time period for a big storm. The PV begins to relax so suppression wouldn't be a huge problem. Also, all models have some miller A during that time frame, just different outcomes. 12z Euro: An attempt for a triple phase on the east coast and the western ridge looks nice as well. Eps is on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Wow the GFS below the CMC-that's a new low on so many levels. Yeah nice upgrade lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 minute ago, doncat said: Yeah nice upgrade lol. The CMC was upgraded in September I think and no question it’s been noticeable so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 26 minutes ago, snowman19 said: I tried explaining this about the weekend yesterday, I wasn’t doing it because I was trying to take people’s snow away or I’m “warm biased”, but the fact remains that this current setup with the TPV is completely, totally different than what we had for the last few events that moved west at the last minute. “It’s going to come west like the others did at the last minute” is not going to work this time Some decent blocking this time around would have resulted in a blockbuster. It might have favored the mid-atlantic over our region, but it would have depended on the magnitude of the blocking. If you try to undercut the TPV with a strong phased system you're going to get snow and a lot of it. Instead the trough moves out, and the fact that it gets quickly replaced is irrelevant to the system in question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Wow the GFS below the CMC-that's a new low on so many levels. Same thought came to mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 52 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The CMC was upgraded in September I think and no question it’s been noticeable so far Let's hope that holds true and we get the couple inches that CMC is showing for saturday, rather than the nothing that GFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 54 minutes ago, doncat said: Yeah nice upgrade lol. Leave it to the GFS to find a way to get worse after an upgrade. http://mashable.com/2017/03/10/hurricane-forecasts-suffer-gfs-model-upgrade/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 23 minutes ago, bluewave said: Leave it to the GFS to find a way to get worse after an upgrade. http://mashable.com/2017/03/10/hurricane-forecasts-suffer-gfs-model-upgrade/ This model is an American embarrassment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Leave it to the GFS to find a way to get worse after an upgrade. http://mashable.com/2017/03/10/hurricane-forecasts-suffer-gfs-model-upgrade/ The hurricane issue was supposed to have been corrected. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/synergy/July_2017_NCEP_Synergy_Meeting_Notes.pdf Like many, I'm concerned about the GFS's performance ranking below the CMC (and also UKMET). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 32 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The hurricane issue was supposed to have been corrected. http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/synergy/July_2017_NCEP_Synergy_Meeting_Notes.pdf Like many, I'm concerned about the GFS's performance ranking below the CMC (and also UKMET). Seems like the main reason we really need the GFS for is the MOS output. Do you know where we can find the ECMWF MOS? That's about the only thing we need to make the ECMWF forecasts more complete. I know Forky posted the recent cold bias issues with the raw Euro 2m T's. But my guess is that the MOS numbers may correct for that. MDL's SMB applies the MOS technique to output from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting's (ECMWF) models. This statistically calibrated objective guidance includes a wide variety of weather elements and time projections and is provided within NOAA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 hour ago, winterwx21 said: Let's hope that holds true and we get the couple inches that CMC is showing for saturday, rather than the nothing that GFS is showing. 18z cmc looks nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 NAVGEM has more of a storm this weekend than the NAM or GFS. I would watch this one. It’s not going to be a monster but it’s also likely not to be a zero either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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