MJO812 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 11 minutes ago, Hailstorm said: Not as bullish as 0z, but still has 2" for NYC. Few inches thanks to the ratios A shift more west and we will see alot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just a brutally cold euro run....several mornings single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 26 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: The trough didn't go neutral as quickly as it did on the 0z run of the ECMWF. As a result, the storm took a path that was farther offshore. The ECMWF still brings brutal cold into the region with a low temperature in NYC around 2° on January 3. The positive tilt broad trough is one issue yes but the real problem with this setup is the tropospheric polar vortex. People keep saying “it’s definitely coming west” like the last few events because of the WAR/SE Ridge. Problem is, this setup is completely and totally different because of the TPV. Its position is causing suppressive flat flow. If not for that factor, then yes, I’d agree, it’s coming west last minute, but we are looking at a totally different animal this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The positivel tilt broad trough is one issue yes but the real problem with this setup is the tropospheric polar vortex. People keep saying “it’s definitely coming west like the last few events because of the WAR/SE Ridge. Problem is, this setup is completely and totally different because of the TPV. Its position is causing suppressive flat flow. If not for that factor, then yes, I’d agree, it’s coming west last minute, but we are looking at a totally different animal this time in layman's terms too, statistically, because something happened before doesn't mean it will happen again, even if trends and indicators favor it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The positive tilt broad trough is one issue yes but the real problem with this setup is the tropospheric polar vortex. People keep saying “it’s definitely coming west” like the last few events because of the WAR/SE Ridge. Problem is, this setup is completely and totally different because of the TPV. Its position is causing suppressive flat flow. If not for that factor, then yes, I’d agree, it’s coming west last minute, but we are looking at a totally different animal this time Agree, I don't see why this would trend west in this pattern. It's more likely to be even more suppressed and flat. Widespread arctic cold is usually terrible for snow events around here, there's no mechanism to bring a storm. Parts of the south have a much better chance than we do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 6 minutes ago, North and West said: in layman's terms too, statistically, because something happened before doesn't mean it will happen again, even if trends and indicators favor it. Correct. If not for that TPV making this very progressive, it would be totally different situation this upcoming weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 52 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Correct. If not for that TPV making this very progressive, it would be totally different situation this upcoming weekend. I think we have a better chance with wave 1. Nao and AO are going near neutral. What is going to suppress the storm ? We will not need alot of precip for accumulating snow. High ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 52 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Correct. If not for that TPV making this very progressive, it would be totally different situation this upcoming weekend. Unfortunately this time I agree with you. Myself and others had said days ago that suppression not a cutter would be the only worry here. The same mechanism bringing the powerful cold shot is the same one that will suppress this. Not to say we can’t muster a couple inches of arctic fluff but a significant impact event appears to be off the table for our subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: I think we have a better chance with wave 1. Nao and AO are going near neutral. What is going to suppress the storm ? We will not need alot of precip for accumulating snow. High ratios That would be the polar vortex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 10 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: That would be the polar vortex The thing is the Euro is nowhere near as potent with the cold push as the GFS is after Day 5. So while this storm may be suppressed I think we have a shot at something significant shortly thereafter. I mean the GFS would have Tampa at 16 for a low while the Euro doesn’t have a 16 degree low in Bowling Green Kentucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 30 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Unfortunately this time I agree with you. Myself and others had said days ago that suppression not a cutter would be the only worry here. The same mechanism bringing the powerful cold shot is the same one that will suppress this. Not to say we can’t muster a couple inches of arctic fluff but a significant impact event appears to be off the table for our subforum. Models might be overdoing the cold We have to see in future runs if the wave comes back west We would not need alot of precip for several inches . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: The positive tilt broad trough is one issue yes but the real problem with this setup is the tropospheric polar vortex. People keep saying “it’s definitely coming west” like the last few events because of the WAR/SE Ridge. Problem is, this setup is completely and totally different because of the TPV. Its position is causing suppressive flat flow. If not for that factor, then yes, I’d agree, it’s coming west last minute, but we are looking at a totally different animal this time Right now, one can't automatically assume that the system will come west. Looking at the EPS, the mean snowfall figure is around 1". However, more than half the ensemble members have < 1" snow and a few have little or nothing. Just one member (#47) has a snowfall of 6" or more. If the latest run of the EPS is representative, there's only about a 5% probability that the storm would bring 4" or more. But there's only a somewhat greater probability that there would be no measurable snow. Still, there's some room for modest changes to allow for several inches. There's also a risk that things change toward even less snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 55 minutes ago, Snow88 said: I think we have a better chance with wave 1. Nao and AO are going near neutral. What is going to suppress the storm ? We will not need alot of precip for accumulating snow. High ratios The TPV is going to suppress it. We weren’t dealing with a TPV for the previous few events that moved west, that’s the reason why the WAR/SE Ridge moved them favorably for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Although somewhat of a crappy model JMA gives us a healthy snowstorm for new years eve timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 15 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Although somewhat of a crappy model JAM gives us a healthy snowstorm for new years eve timeframe JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Wpc threw out the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Agree, I don't see why this would trend west in this pattern. It's more likely to be even more suppressed and flat. Widespread arctic cold is usually terrible for snow events around here, there's no mechanism to bring a storm. Parts of the south have a much better chance than we do. The flat, progressive fast flow from the TPV is causing the suppression. The trough stays broad and positive tilt as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 Once again, I think our best chances at major storm is once the pattern relaxes or right before around January 7-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: My guess for the last storm chance before the relaxation is January 5th. Gfs shows it at 18z. Ec showed it developing out west at 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: Gfs shows it at 18z. Ec showed it developing out west at 240. This is not a pattern changing storm - after that on the 18Z GFS the cold keeps coming down from the north............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 2 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: This is not a pattern changing storm - after that on the 18Z GFS the cold keeps coming down from the north............ Just saw that. A lot colder in the lr than previous runs. Perhaps models breaking down pattern too early before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: Just saw that. A lot colder in the lr than previous runs. Perhaps models breaking down pattern too early before. you have too figure that inside this current pattern that eventually there will be a significant snowstorm - most long lasting very cold patterns feature at least 1 - unfortunately we will not have much advanced notice maybe 3 - 4 days at best since models are struggling with this pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 54 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Once again, I think our best chances at major storm is once the pattern relaxes or right before around January 7-10 It's the most likely chance of a storm although not necessarily a "snow" storm. Often when a cold pattern is breaking you get a mixed bag system from a SWFE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 34 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's the most likely chance of a storm although not necessarily a "snow" storm. Often when a cold pattern is breaking you get a mixed bag system from a SWFE. Actually a perfect example was January 23 2015 HECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 I know I should know this but what does SWFE stand for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: My guess for the last storm chance before the relaxation is January 5th. Gfs and gefs and eps has a storm signal around the 6th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 8 minutes ago, sferic said: I know I should know this but what does SWFE stand for? Southwest Flow Event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 I know I should know this but what does SWFE stand for?I feel like we should have an easily accessible link to the acronyms used here. Some I’m not familiar with, either.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 I have not seen such inconsistency in the medium range modeling in years. GEM has become joke. Tonight's run is absurd at 198 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 27, 2017 Share Posted December 27, 2017 CMC is a light to moderate event on the 30-31 and has a Miller A on 1/4. GFS has a similar system 1/4-1/5 and nothing 30-31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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