December Model Discussion

[NEG NAO]

7 hours ago, snow1 said:

DT throwing in the towel on this upcoming threat! 

I think the vendor thread should be activated again.......could be interesting..........

[Paragon]

9 hours ago, sferic said:

Close for Jan 21st 1985  high of 9 as per http://thestarryeye.typepad.com/weather/2013/01/baby-its-cold-outside-a-history-of-single-digit-temperatures-in-new-york-city.html

Good memories that was our last single digit high- we came so close in 1994 but missed it

 

[Paragon]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The EPS brings the .5 line to just east of LI. All we need is a slow crawl west next 4 days of runs to get NYC into a nice high ratio Arctic fluff event. The OP Euro and UKMET coming west last few runs should get people's attention on the potential if everything falls into place.

 

 

 

What's keeping this from coming much further west?  The NAO isn't even that negative or anything.

[Paragon]

8 hours ago, David-LI said:

GFS's next week arctic shot is brutal.

It better get below zero and make some history.

 

[Paragon]

Just now, bluewave said:

There is room in later runs to creep back closer to the BM since it's right where the jet exit region suggests a low should form.

 

 

 

Chris.I saw you posted maps in the other thread showing how cold it's going to be for NYE and then the projected warmup on Jan 7th, is there anything to indicate we might have a big storm developing just before the pattern changes?

 

[Paragon]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It's probably better to just take it one storm at a time in a pattern like this.

I saw this pretty cool simulation where they project where high and low pressures will be a week or more ahead of time (I think the max was 10 days), they said it's not to predict storm formation but was a probability scheme to show where it was most likely to occur at a given time.

I don't think it was any particular model, but they used all the different ensembles of different models and came up with the simulation.

 

[Paragon]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The Euro and UKMET have shifted to a more northern stream or TPV dominant event last few days. That's where some of the confusion comes in with all these OP model run shifts in recent days. But the EPS has held steady with the general storm potential. All the best model action in recent years has been under 72 hrs anyway. So we still have time to track this before making a first or even last call.

Was that the issue with Boxing Day too?  Confusion with northern stream interaction so we didn't know the phase would occur in time for us until less than 24 hrs before the event.

 

[CTWeatherFreak]

57 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I think the vendor thread should be activated again.......could be interesting..........

You know its coming now that he pulled the plug!

[Paragon]

45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

There aren't many analogs for the weekend potential coming up. I can't really remember any recent snow events where the TPV dropped so far SE into Northern New England.  Most of the time the TPV is in SE Canada with a spoke of energy rotating underneath. The main question for us is how far west and quick it gets going. 

Anything like this from winter 2003-04?

 

 

[sferic]

Apologies if this has been posted already but for KNYC what was the longest stretch of consecutive days temperature stood below 32?

[Paragon]

58 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The last recent time I can remember a storm forming on a TPV crossing New England was February 2015. But no 2 set ups are ever exactly alike.

 

 

 

That was the other winter I was thinking about but some people have bad feelings about that winter although I highly enjoyed it!

Wish we could get a combo like Feb-Mar 2015 again!

Why do our cold spells usually not last that long?

I get frustrated when I read about old winters and how often our rivers and waterways got frozen and people walked across them and set up shop on the ice, etc.

 

 

[EastonSN+]

15 minutes ago, Paragon said:

That was the other winter I was thinking about but some people have bad feelings about that winter although I highly enjoyed it!

Wish we could get a combo like Feb-Mar 2015 again!

Why do our cold spells usually not last that long?

I get frustrated when I read about old winters and how often our rivers and waterways got frozen and people walked across them and set up shop on the ice, etc.

 

 

The tri state area had way above average snowfall that winter although December was warm.

[Paragon]

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The tri state area had way above average snowfall that winter although December was warm.

I loved that winter, more than 2013-14 which was also good though.

Feb 2015 cold and frequent snow and amazing cold and snow right into March!

 

It looked like the kind of snow you only see in the arctic lol.

 

SST were near freezing   I remember getting freezing drizzle on a sea breeze lol.

 

 

[MJO812]

Nice snow event on the cmc for Saturday

[snowman19]

2 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Nice snow event on the cmc for Saturday

It’s showing an inverted trof event. We all know how modeled IVT events have worked out the last several years...

[donsutherland1]

38 minutes ago, sferic said:

Apologies if this has been posted already but for KNYC what was the longest stretch of consecutive days temperature stood below 32?

16 consecutive days:

1/19/1961 26°
1/20/1961 19°
1/21/1961 21°
1/22/1961 21°
1/23/1961 22°
1/24/1961 25°
1/25/1961 19°
1/26/1961 21°
1/27/1961 20°
1/28/1961 21°
1/29/1961 28°
1/30/1961 25°
1/31/1961 29°
2/1/1961 24°
2/2/1961 20°
2/3/1961 28°

The temperature reached 34° on 2/4, ending the streak.

[David-LI]

GFS a close miss for the weekend storm

[Enigma]

With the orientation/tilt of the TPV along with its proximity to the NE, it will take a miracle to get snow north of the Mason-Dixon Line. This pattern is very progressive and the mean trough needs to retrograde west in order to get us back into an active storm track. I cannot take the GEM or the GFS seriously at this point.

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, David-LI said:

GFS a close miss for the weekend storm

12Z model runs released so far just add to the confusion - each one at 500mb is different especially as you go farther out in time through the weekend

[snowman19]

Just now, Enigma said:

With the orientation/tilt of the TPV along with its proximity to the NE, it will take a miracle to get snow north of the Mason-Dixon Line. This pattern is very progressive and the mean trough needs to retrograde west in order to get us back into an active storm track. I cannot take the GEM or the GFS seriously at this point.

Enigma, I’m thinking the same thing. That aside, the CMC is just totally out to lunch in my opinion. It has that inverted trof over the area, the whole evolution just doesn’t look right IMO. IVT setups here rarely workout anyway

[WeatherFeen2000]

4 minutes ago, Enigma said:

With the orientation/tilt of the TPV along with its proximity to the NE, it will take a miracle to get snow north of the Mason-Dixon Line. This pattern is very progressive and the mean trough needs to retrograde west in order to get us back into an active storm track. I cannot take the GEM or the GFS seriously at this point.

How about the euro? It drops 3-6 inches of snow for our area

[winterwx21]

26 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Enigma, I’m thinking the same thing. That aside, the CMC is just totally out to lunch in my opinion. It has that inverted trof over the area, the whole evolution just doesn’t look right IMO. IVT setups here rarely workout anyway

Euro and UKMET have been showing snow for saturday as well. CMC is not alone so I have no idea what you're talking about.

[donsutherland1]

There are tremendous differences at 500 mb between the 12z GGEM and 12z GFS at 102 hours. The former solution is much closer to the 500 mb forecast on the 12/26 0z ECMWF at 114 hours. Let's see what the 12z ECMWF shows. In theory, the higher resolution ECMWF should have a better handle than the GFS in a northern stream-dominated pattern. It's too soon to write off at least a moderate event for parts of the region for the 30th-31st.

[Rjay]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

There are tremendous differences at 500 mb between the 12z GGEM and 12z GFS at 102 hours. The former solution is much closer to the 500 mb forecast on the 12/26 0z ECMWF at 114 hours. Let's see what the 12z ECMWF shows. In theory, the higher resolution ECMWF should have a better handle than the GFS in a northern stream-dominated pattern. It's too soon to write off at least a moderate event for parts of the region for the 30th-31st.

Yup.  The 12z cmc and the 0z Euro have very similar looks at 500mb.  

[Rjay]

The Ukie is a lot closer than it's been and it goes bonkers in a 24 hour period. 

[MJO812]

37 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Enigma, I’m thinking the same thing. That aside, the CMC is just totally out to lunch in my opinion. It has that inverted trof over the area, the whole evolution just doesn’t look right IMO. IVT setups here rarely workout anyway

Euro has support now

[Stormlover74]

Euro still good?

[Hailstorm]

3 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Euro still good?

Not as bullish as 0z, but still has 2" for NYC.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Still waiting on sampling guys. Wait until Thursday for making any claims of victory. At this point a KU looks unlikely but a moderate event is still on the table. Anyone really want it to be extremely cold with brown ground in the city and coast? I don’t get that. If it’s going to be extremely cold let’s at least get a few inches...

[donsutherland1]

The trough didn't go neutral as quickly as it did on the 0z run of the ECMWF. As a result, the storm took a path that was farther offshore. The ECMWF still brings brutal cold into the region with a low temperature in NYC around 2° on January 3.