MJO812 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: Can you go into a bit more detail for those with out paid access Euro is closer with the anafrontal wave and then it also forms another wave along the front. Looks like LI and SNJ gets several inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Cape May 8" on the euro from both waves, up here off the coastal plain in upper Bucks 1" meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 This is be a situation that may evolve quite a bit over the next 2-3 days. Often the WAR has been stronger than forecast at this range, and pieces of energy/inverted troughs are always tough to call at any range. The best outcome would be the ridge flexing a little more and forcing the low to track closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 WAR= weak and retreating as per OPC guidance..... Exit stage right! http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 18z gfs shows how we can go snowless over basically snowless over the next 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 20 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: 18z gfs shows how we can go snowless over basically snowless over the next 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swamplover56 Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 Good to see you back tommy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 4, 2017 Share Posted December 4, 2017 19 minutes ago, swamplover56 said: Good to see you back tommy thanks 56..... hope all is well 18z GEFS 10 day mean ,for good measure http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 3 hours ago, Doorman said: WAR= weak and retreating as per OPC guidance..... Exit stage right! http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml Welcome back.... but you’re missing one thing. If the trough goes neg.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 hour ago, dmillz25 said: Welcome back.... but you’re missing one thing. If the trough goes neg.... IF....Mr Savalas could sing, he may have sold out the Garden!!! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J94-_w9ARX0 - http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml bring me guidance that shows a neg tilt trough and I will bite http://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/127/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Painfully close. Suffolk does well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 00z GFS looks a bit better for Friday night than 18z, slightly west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Sunday could be a real nice hit... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 3 minutes ago, SnowBlitzkrieg said: Sunday could be a real nice hit... In New England, but much inproved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 Man , the cold keeps reloading on the GFS with 2 decent snow events mid month. Cold and wintry month ahead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 thanks 56..... hope all is well 18z GEFS 10 day mean ,for good measure http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/Welcome back brother Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 5, 2017 Author Share Posted December 5, 2017 Our Friday sat storm looks DOA...however heights rebuild and a trof digs with a more consolidated piece of energy to work with at its base, trof goes neutral and our system rides the coast, NE gets hammered.. late Tuesday into wed next week...encouraging amount of storm opportunities, were bound to cash on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 5, 2017 Author Share Posted December 5, 2017 EPS likes a coastal late next Tuesday into Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 2 hours ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Our Friday sat storm looks DOA...however heights rebuild and a trof digs with a more consolidated piece of energy to work with at its base, trof goes neutral and our system rides the coast, NE gets hammered.. late Tuesday into wed next week...encouraging amount of storm opportunities, were bound to cash on 1 Yea that was about 50 mi E of being a MECS for NYC/HV...low reaches 959 at 216...shows what the pattern is capable of producing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 GEFS definitely shifted west with the precipitation for Friday into Saturday’s event. Let’s see if this could turn into a trend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 40 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: GEFS definitely shifted west with the precipitation for Friday into Saturday’s event. Let’s see if this could turn into a trend! This threat isn't over just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 1 hour ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: GEFS definitely shifted west with the precipitation for Friday into Saturday’s event. Let’s see if this could turn into a trend! It’s hard to count out a suppressed event that would become something with a little more amplitude on the ridge. We’ve seen these shift west last minute numerous times the last few winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 This threat isn't over just yetNever was....wont have a decent handle until Wednesday afternoon/evening at best. When ens members range from so far West it rains to several inches accumulation to coating to flurries to partly cloudy at this range, it is safe to say uncertainty still looms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 5, 2017 Author Share Posted December 5, 2017 My Main concern for this Friday event, Is our elongated piece of energy, we’ve yet to see a model run that consolidated our energy around the base of our trof, no matter how strong our WAR is pressing, it won’t matter if we have strung out energy profiles along the base of our trof, were just going to get an elongated area of low pressure... look for 500 to consolidate energy at our trof basin for a snow storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 5, 2017 Author Share Posted December 5, 2017 Nam has a crazy look to it at H5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 39 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: My Main concern for this Friday event, Is our elongated piece of energy, we’ve yet to see a model run that consolidated our energy around the base of our trof, no matter how strong our WAR is pressing, it won’t matter if we have strung out energy profiles along the base of our trof, were just going to get an elongated area of low pressure... look for 500 to consolidate energy at our trof basin for a snow storm Like the NAM? NAM slows the whole thing down digging the trof and trying to consolidate the energy way down South at the end of the run. Almost implies that there would be a delayed but not denied SECS if the run went to 96+ hours. But alas, the NAM doing it's NAM'ing thing probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 20 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Like the NAM? NAM slows the whole thing down digging the trof and trying to consolidate the energy way down South at the end of the run. Almost implies that there would be a delayed but not denied SECS if the run went to 96+ hours. But alas, the NAM doing it's NAM'ing thing probably. Extrapolated NAM would probably be an 8"+ hit. H5 is spectacular. Too bad its the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 5, 2017 Author Share Posted December 5, 2017 Slightly better trof orientation on gfs early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 21 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Extrapolated NAM would probably be an 8"+ hit. H5 is spectacular. Too bad its the NAM. Soon, the Dgex will be no more and the NAM is getting a huge upgrade. NWS is retiring the dgex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 5, 2017 Share Posted December 5, 2017 12 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Slightly better trof orientation on gfs early GFS Definitely west so far UP TO 66 hrs ends up east of its last run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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