MJO812 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, winterwx21 said: Yeah I would gladly take a few inches with the super cold air in place. Right now we have GGEM and UKMET showing a couple/few inches for saturday. Hopefully the Euro will agree. Euro did agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Watch us find another way to end up with a KU now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I get a feeling our big daddy will likely occur right before the pattern changes around the end of the first week of January. Don't most big storms happen either during the onset of arctic air or right before arctic air retreats? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 17 minutes ago, Rjay said: Watch us find another way to end up with a KU now. 6+ for NYC with more in LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 My Holly says GL clipper Fri Not going to phase with GofM low for the "significant snow" as of 12:30 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 26 minutes ago, Rjay said: Watch us find another way to end up with a KU now. The most likely time, if it’s going to happen, would be as the pattern starts to flip around the 2nd week of January IMO. The bigger storms tend to come right as the cold pattern is breaking and lifting out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 32 minutes ago, Rjay said: All northern stream. This our potential now. What the Euro just show. It's not the blockbuster KU everyone was looking for but it's a solid moderate event with cold temps and high ratios. I should pin this somewhere. This is our new threat for next weekend. Hopefully it trends even better but it doesn't have the same potential of what we were originally tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The most likely time, if it’s going to happen, would be as the pattern starts to flip around the 2nd week of January IMO. The bigger storms tend to come right as the cold pattern is breaking and lifting out Open a thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 We went from a big Blockbuster or two to maybe a clipper type event that could drop a few inches on Saturday. I hope we get something otherwise all this cold is a complete waste and unnecessary. If it's not going to snow, then give me springtime weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: We went from a big Blockbuster or two to maybe a clipper type event that could drop a few inches on Saturday. I hope we get something otherwise all this cold is a complete waste and unnecessary. If it's not going to snow, then give me springtime weather. What's wrong with a few inches of snow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 13 minutes ago, Snow88 said: What's wrong with a few inches of snow ? Nothing at all is wrong with a few inches of snow. The biggest problem is that people have been hyping a block buster storm for a week on social media due to the fact a long range model showed something like 24-50 inches of snow in spots. Mt Holly NWS had to address this yesterday in their afd. People are hearing & being told that a big storm is coming this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 8 minutes ago, Animal said: Nothing at all is wrong with a few inches of snow. The biggest problem is that people have been hyping a block buster storm for a week on social media due to the fact a long range model showed something like 24-50 inches of snow in spots. Mt Holly NWS had to address this yesterday in their afd. People are hearing & being told that a big storm is coming this weekend. What does irresponsible social media hyping have to do with not seeing the bright side of a possibility of several inches of snow? We all know better (or at least we should) than to fully put our faith on day 7-10 model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: The high latitude blocking started slowly breaking down in mid January and by the end of January it was gone and it never came back again, right through spring. The torch pattern started early February, yes We still had a 4.5 inch overturning overrunning change over event in late Feb or early March I believe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 A wild and juicy OP run gets hopes up too much despite knowing deep inside that such resolutions at such a time distance rarely pan out. The disappointments happen as a function of human nature despite repeated lessons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Just amazing cold shown on the euro....Starting tomorrow no days above mid 20's with several only teens for highs, with many nights single digits. Such cold for an extended period will cause problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 hour ago, White Gorilla said: A wild and juicy OP run gets hopes up too much despite knowing deep inside that such resolutions at such a time distance rarely pan out. The disappointments happen as a function of human nature despite repeated lessons. The pattern depicted on all the ensembles screamed major potential. It still screams potential but it's not the same look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 hour ago, doncat said: Just amazing cold shown on the euro....Starting tomorrow no days above mid 20's with several only teens for highs, with many nights single digits. Such cold for an extended period will cause problems. The cold on that Euro run would be historic for NYC lol. The lows for the last four nights are all below zero. That has only happened once since 1869 (during the winter of 1917-1918). The last night gets down to -9, which would be the third coldest low temperature since 1869 (it got down to -15 in 1934 and -13 during that streak in 1917-1918). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 18z gfs continues with mainly a non event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, snow1 said: 18z gfs continues with mainly a non event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 "Wave 1" seems to be DOA. Interesting multiple models show norluns, albeit at different times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Norluns never work out for this area. All the talk about big snows is now gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Lmao good luck if you’re following up the models for your guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 28 minutes ago, snow1 said: 18z gfs continues with mainly a non event GFS still insisting that we'll see a light snowfall (1 to 2 inches) on friday with the 1st wave, and then gives us nothing saturday. GGEM, UKMET and EURO are nothing with the first wave but then give us a decent snowfall on saturday from a system coming in from the west. It looks as if GFS is lost, but you never know for sure of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 4 hours ago, Rjay said: Watch us find another way to end up with a KU now. Exactly why all this it’s over talk is complete garbage. We just saw a snow event apear out of thin air. (As far as the models are concerned) Are we going to see a KU I would say probably not, and I have been saying that for a few days. But saying nothing is going to happen for a Saturday event on Monday is just as irresponsible as saying there will be a KU. this board has a real problem with watching model runs and proclaiming that’s whats going to happen. If by Thursday this looks like a non event I’ll throw in the towel. Until then anything and everything is still possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 35 minutes ago, snow1 said: Norluns never work out for this area. All the talk about big snows is now gone. Says Who? Yes the models except the Euro don't show a big snowstorm but we all know that it can show right back up as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 38 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: "Wave 1" seems to be DOA. Interesting multiple models show norluns, albeit at different times. Wave 1 isn't DOAyet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 The coming severe cold could produce NYC’s coldest temperature sine February 14, 2016 when the temperature fell to -1 degree. That was the City’s last single digit reading. One or more single digit readings remain likely before the pattern breaks near the end of the first week in January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Probably one of the colder nights at midnight New Year's Eve. Do we have a top ten coldest when the ball dropped? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 13 minutes ago, sferic said: Probably one of the colder nights at midnight New Year's Eve. Do we have a top ten coldest when the ball dropped? The following are the ball drop temperatures below 20° (old year/new year): 1°, 1917-18 11°, 1962-63 15°, 1976-77 and 1996-97 17°, 1997-98 18°, 1939-40 and 2008-09 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 2 hours ago, Rjay said: The pattern depicted on all the ensembles screamed major potential. It still screams potential but it's not the same look. This has become a N branched dominate feature now that is still in a sparser data region , but that doesn't mean this can't turn into a snowstorm on the EC. This will be grabbed tomorrow by 12z and the models will get a better handle on what it is Right now all the solutions you are seeing in the numerical guidance is not to be taken too seriously because the models are probably undermodeling the N vort Why? Well it's done it for the last 2 systems and has to correct to the stronger SW. Secondly the WAR has been undermodeled in the mid range since November and every coastal has ended up closer than forecast. These are 2 very big forecast fixes that change what you are looking at. Its very hard to come in here at times and explain why the models could be wrong , why there was a never a SE ridge , why it was going to snow on the coast on the 10th and how most of you were going to snow on Christmas when the prevailing posts in here from 5 days ago was 60 and rain. We don't look to why the model is right , we debate away why the model is wrong and what needs to catch up synoptically to make the forecast work. This is not going to take much to produce a snowstorm here , so I would advise against difinititive statements 5 days out on the E/C . Merry Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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