MJO812 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 10 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Winter is not ending on January 11th sorry to break it to you. Yes winter looks to peak this week but it's not ending in two weeks use some common sense dude I agree Looks like a warm-up but who knows how long it will last Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 “You’re enjoying your day, everything is going your way and along come the Debbie Downers!” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 31 minutes ago, Animal said: I was curious to see what the 12z GFS would show as we are now in the "big" window. to my surprise...I don't see a storm that impacts the NY metro area. hmm. There is no big window anymore with the models. They have been awful. Let's wait until the energy is sampled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 27 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's an awful model run, it would be devastating if we didn't get any snow from this pattern because we will warm after wards, and if it ends up like 10/11 then winter will end early. Have fun defending this one weenies. Winter didn't end early in 10/11 The warm-up started in February that winter. We still saw some snow during the warm up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I said if it goes that route, not that it will. GGEM only has a clipper during the next 10 days and completely whiffs on wave 1 & 2. Euro/EPS have stayed away from this the last 2-3 days. EPS has alot of lows close to the coast. Yes it shows mostly a Miller B but that can change in a second. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Will have to see if Euro has a decent clipper for saturday like the GGEM now has. A clipper might be our best chance in this frigid pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 why are we even looking at the gfs? This model is useless lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 3 minutes ago, snow1 said: why are we even looking at the gfs? This model is useless lately. Very true. GFS is useless beyond 5 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: There is no big window anymore with the models. They have been awful. Let's wait until the energy is sampled. 8 minutes ago, Snow88 said: EPS has alot of lows close to the coast. Yes it shows mostly a Miller B but that can change in a second. There is no indication there is going to be any phasing of the streams - northern stream as of right now is forecasted to be dominate around here until there is evidence to the contrary.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Posting this again with slight changes as people are playing model certainty again. I really wonder why no one learned the last time around. Regardless, we have seen this show before. We see mega numbers spit out a week in advance that gets everyone excited. Then as we get into that 4-6 day range the models lose the storm or supress it. This gets the warministas out. Then finally within 72 hours the storm trends closer and closer. In the case of last March too close for the coast. Climatologically these storms like to follow the north wall of the Gulf Stream and thus take that bench mark track. There is a ton of energy out there. We still have above normal sea surface temps offshore. Mix that with true arctic air and things go boom. It’s a simple mix of meteorology and climatology. This isn’t the 80s we have had an incredible ability to squeeze big events out of any cold we get. No reason to think that stops now. Anyone speaking in absolutes this far out before these waves are even sampled is a weather kook and shouldn’t be taken seriously... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 5 minutes ago, NEG NAO said: There is no indication there is going to be any phasing of the streams - northern stream as of right now is forecasted to be dominate around here until there is evidence to the contrary.. I agree A few inches would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 42 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It's an awful model run, it would be devastating if we didn't get any snow from this pattern because we will warm after wards, and if it ends up like 10/11 then winter will end early. Have fun defending this one weenies. I got 3 inches last night. The next 2 weeks are going to be cold and what happens beyond that we just don't know yet. Odds are there will be a relaxation in middle of January but it's foolish to say winter will end early. If it's ok with you I'm not going to put the winter boots away just yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 12 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Posting this again with slight changes as people are playing model certainty again. I really wonder why no one learned the last time around. Regardless, we have seen this show before. We see mega numbers spit out a week in advance that gets everyone excited. Then as we get into that 4-6 day range the models lose the storm or supress it. This gets the warministas out. Then finally within 72 hours the storm trends closer and closer. In the case of last March too close for the coast. Climatologically these storms like to follow the north wall of the Gulf Stream and thus take that bench mark track. There is a ton of energy out there. We still have above normal sea surface temps offshore. Mix that with true arctic air and things go boom. It’s a simple mix of meteorology and climatology. This isn’t the 80s we have had an incredible ability to squeeze big events out of any cold we get. No reason to think that stops now. Anyone speaking in absolutes this far out before these waves are even sampled is a weather kook and shouldn’t be taken seriously... The entire evolution has changed. This isn't even the same thing we were originally tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I see a weak s/w and an insufficient western ridge due to too much energy crashing into it causing deamplification. An overmodeled SE ridge in the long range also didn't help. Again, we are now counting on a possible late blooming Miller B to deliver the goods. The problem is that we need this to dig several hundred miles to the south and redevelop off of the Delmarva and I don't see a mechanism to make that happen as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 We need MAJOR changes for some significant to happen with wave 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snow1 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 How does the gfs ensembles look? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 I was curious to see what the 12z GFS would show as we are now in the "big" window. to my surprise...I don't see a storm that impacts the NY metro area. hmm. That's about right lol🤣 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, Rjay said: We need MAJOR changes for some significant to happen with wave 1. Not really PNA looks good for this storm. I wouldn't be shocked to see the models trend back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 10 minutes ago, Rjay said: I see a weak s/w and an insufficient western ridge due to too much energy crashing into it causing deamplification. An overmodeled SE ridge in the long range also didn't help. Again, we are now counting on a possible late blooming Miller B to deliver the goods. The problem is that we need this to dig several hundred miles to the south and redevelop off of the Delmarva and I don't see a mechanism to make that happen as of now. The southeast ridge has been trending stronger as we got closer to the past storms. What is going to change this time around ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: Not really PNA looks good for this storm. I wouldn't be shocked to see the models trend back west. We have to much energy crashing into it. The PNA as currently modeled is not going to cut it. A major change sure would help though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: The southeast ridge has been trending stronger as we got closer to the past storms. What is going to change this time around ? The SE ridge is basically non-existent on the last bunch of runs. We would need it to trend stronger and start trending very soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: Winter didn't end early in 10/11 The warm-up started in February that winter. We still saw some snow during the warm up. The high latitude blocking started slowly breaking down in mid January and by the end of January it was gone and it never came back again, right through spring. The torch pattern started early February, yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 24 minutes ago, Rjay said: The SE ridge is basically non-existent on the last bunch of runs. We would need it to trend stronger and start trending very soon. Agree with you here, we have a few issues, totally non exsistant WAR/SE ridge, the TPV, and the +PNA ridge is under attack from the upstream shortwave, deamplifying it and knocking it down. Plus we have very strong arctic high pressure pressing down, acting to further suppress the flow south of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The high latitude blocking started slowly breaking down in mid January and by the end of January it was gone and it never came back again, right through spring. The torch pattern started early February, yes We would have beaten 1996 if the blocking didn't go away Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Agree with you here, we have a few issues, totally non exsistant WAR/SE ridge, the TPV and the +PNA ridge is under attack from the upstream shortwave, deamplifying it and knocking it down. Plus we have very strong arctic high pressure pressing down, acting to further suppress the flow south of us I don't think a minor or moderate event is off the table though. It's just that we need that upstream s/w to be further west and stronger to amplify the PNA ridge. We also need a stronger SE ridge. Then we have a shot at something sizable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 UKMET looks decent for saturday. Hopefully we can get some high ratio snow from the system coming in from the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, winterwx21 said: UKMET looks decent for saturday. Hopefully we can get some high ratio snow from the system coming in from the west. Looks like a couple/few inches of snow. I'll take it at this point. It also shows a crazy IVT into CNJ which as we know is impossible to forecast at this lead time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Looks like a couple/few inches of snow. I'll take it at this point. It also shows a crazy IVT into CNJ which as we know is impossible to forecast at this lead time. Euro is showing a nice snow event now for Saturday Miller B Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 1 minute ago, Rjay said: Looks like a couple/few inches of snow. I'll take it at this point. It also shows a crazy IVT into CNJ which as we know is impossible to forecast at this lead time. Yeah I would gladly take a few inches with the super cold air in place. Right now we have GGEM and UKMET showing a couple/few inches for saturday. Hopefully the Euro will agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro is showing a nice snow event now for Saturday Miller B All northern stream. This our potential now. What the Euro just show. It's not the blockbuster KU everyone was looking for but it's a solid moderate event with cold temps and high ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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