jm1220 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 On 12/24/2017 at 7:32 AM, Paragon said: We really need that SE Ridge to amp up. I don't even care if the storm cuts across Long Island, that's far better than going out to sea. Expand I'd honestly rather take a few minor snow events like this month so far than something like what happened with the March storm. The writing was somewhat on the wall with that but ending up with 3" of slop that was mostly washed away vs. a good shot at a foot or more and a blizzard watch 2 days before... no thanks. I'd much rather be here on guidance vs. us be in the bullseye now. The SE Ridge has also almost always strengthened close into events and storms end up more amped. Given that this is a Nina winter, it gives it even more likelihood. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 On 12/24/2017 at 8:31 AM, jm1220 said: I'd honestly rather take a few minor snow events like this month so far than something like what happened with the March storm. The writing was somewhat on the wall with that but ending up with 3" of slop that was mostly washed away vs. a good shot at a foot or more and a blizzard watch 2 days before... no thanks. I'd much rather be here on guidance vs. us be in the bullseye now. The SE Ridge has also almost always strengthened close into events and storms end up more amped. Given that this is a Nina winter, it gives it even more likelihood. Expand I guess I never really like late March events because they seem to melt right away, if that was more like the Jan 2008 Heavy Snow Warning bust, I'd have a bigger issue with it. I was thinking more like the Millenium Storm if we could get a track like that and a dynamic storm like that one, it would be pretty amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Gfs significantly improved from 6z Gefs is also better than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 The Euro control is ridiculous. Posting it for fun. 1000mb to 959mb in 12 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 On 12/24/2017 at 12:38 PM, Rjay said: The Euro control is ridiculous. Posting it for fun. 1000mb to 959mb in 12 hours Expand Impossible, that would be our strongest (winter) storm of all time. great to see though. Confidence is starting to rise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 On 12/24/2017 at 12:42 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Impossible, that would be our strongest storm of all time. great to see though. Confidence is starting to rise. Expand how far west would the accumulating snow shield be with that track? looks kind of far offshore the low, crushing mtp to bid and mvy/ack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 On 12/24/2017 at 12:46 PM, codfishsnowman said: how far west would the accumulating snow shield be with that track? looks kind of far offshore the low, crushing mtp to bid and mvy/ack? Expand I - 95 as far west as about eastern PA as outlined by WPC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 6z gefs shifted west and has a nice track for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 On 12/24/2017 at 12:42 PM, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Impossible, that would be our strongest (winter) storm of all time. great to see though. Confidence is starting to rise. Expand ...something else is starting to rise..!!! great track for us LI boys..further east the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 On 12/24/2017 at 12:46 PM, codfishsnowman said: how far west would the accumulating snow shield be with that track? looks kind of far offshore the low, crushing mtp to bid and mvy/ack? Expand Our subforum sees 1-2' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Verbatim, that control run has the mother of all norluns for north Jersey into NYC and eastern Suffolk gets clipped by the western side of the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 On 12/24/2017 at 1:09 PM, EasternLI said: Verbatim, that control run has the mother of all norluns for north Jersey into NYC and eastern Suffolk gets clipped by the western side of the CCB. Expand Yup. Ridiculous solution. That's why it's just for fun. No point in us discussing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 On 12/24/2017 at 1:10 PM, Rjay said: Yup. Ridiculous solution. That's why it's just for fun. No point in us discussion it. Expand Oh yeah, totally agree. Would be fun to nowcast that sucker though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 On 12/24/2017 at 1:07 PM, Rjay said: Our subforum sees 1-2' Expand I will leave it at that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 On 12/24/2017 at 12:46 PM, codfishsnowman said: how far west would the accumulating snow shield be with that track? looks kind of far offshore the low, crushing mtp to bid and mvy/ack? Expand With everything trending further west last second that’s just where we want I be at this juncture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 I think everyone is getting a little too excited about the Euro and EPS. Both are big-time misses. Relying on a Norlun is an ingredient for major letdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 On 12/24/2017 at 3:47 PM, Enigma said: I think everyone is getting a little too excited about the Euro and EPS. Both are big-time misses. Relying on a Norlun is an ingredient for major letdown. Expand Way too far to be worried about the track, essentially it' going to come down how suppressd the jet stream gets pushed south. No doubt there will be a storm just how far north will it go. By Wednesday we should know for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 On 12/24/2017 at 3:57 PM, SnoSki14 said: After seeing these past couple days transpire, things have become a lot more bleak. Also those who called for an inch or two for Christmas are going to be wrong. We also have about two weeks before the pattern breaks down to get snow otherwise those AN snowfall calls could be in jeopardy. Expand This was always going to be a close call so forecasting 1-2 and getting nil is not really a huge bust. Regardless, some parts of the metro will indeed receive 1-2. As for the late week storm, still lots of time before anyone should press the panic button. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Northern stream is a bit quicker on the GFS. Remains to be seen if its enough to bring the storm up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Canadian and gfs both miss us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 On 12/24/2017 at 4:02 PM, ILoveWinter said: This was always going to be a close call so forecasting 1-2 and getting nil is not really a huge bust. Regardless, some parts of the metro will indeed receive 1-2. As for the late week storm, still lots of time before anyone should press the panic button. Expand That is true, but the late week storm is now losing the +PNA/-AO combo and the Euro/EPS are a miss, gfs is very flat as well. That's a very bad sign. We could end up cold and dry until the pattern breaks down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 On 12/24/2017 at 4:08 PM, WeatherFeen2000 said: Canadian and gfs both miss us Expand Bad trends thus far with the op's. Hopefully the ensembles won't start to back off too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Still plenty of time for trends to reverse. We need to look at the larger teleconnections forecast for that time period beyond run to run modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 On 12/24/2017 at 4:12 PM, NutleyBlizzard said: Bad trends thus far with the op's. Hopefully the ensembles won't start to back off too. Expand Too early to worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 If anyone will sniff out a storm this big I would rely on the euro. Let' wait and see if this goes our way today cause so far it hasnt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Long as the ensembles are hinting at a storm no need to worry the system will not be onshore till Tuesday, long as we have the ensembles no need to worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Whiners will whine, weenies will ween, Merry Christmas to all snow we can dream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Hmmm the typical everyone giving up time. We’ll see in 2-3 days what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Hello Bermuda Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Setup is poor for next weekend. It’s toast, next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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