Rjay Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 I wonder if this will trend more amplified as we get closer to the event..... Everything else has this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 20 minutes ago, Rjay said: I wonder if this will trend more amplified as we get closer to the event..... Everything else has this winter. The ensemble mean snows for 30 hours. Assume an undermodeled WAR continues and this is more towards the BM Synoptically a high end event is likely in your not to distant future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: The ensemble mean snows for 30 hours. Assume an undermodeled WAR continues and this is more towards the BM Synoptically a high end event is likely in your not to distant future. No storm signal here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 11 minutes ago, Rjay said: No storm signal here. The precip panels on are SV advertise a long duration event. This will go off from the M/A to Maine. This will get juicy like I said I think it's a high end event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: The precip panels on are SV advertise a long duration event. This will go off from the M/A to Maine. This will get juicy like I said I think it's a high end event I was being sarcastic. Huge storm signal at this range. Long duration on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 19 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: The ensemble mean snows for 30 hours. Assume an undermodeled WAR continues and this is more towards the BM Synoptically a high end event is likely in your not to distant future. funny how some people were obsessively worried about the WAR lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 19 minutes ago, Rjay said: No storm signal here. "Nothing to see here" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Three rules come to mind: 1) Axis of heaviest snow about 150-200 miles NW of 850 mb low. 2) NYC metro MECS/HECS are typically modeled in medium range as near misses or SECS, with subtle north shift in precip as event nears in 48-72hrs out. Southern energy and robust moisture feed is under-modeled. 3) Climo: If NWP is consistently showing 12-24 in in Richmond 4/5/6 days out, high chance the heaviest of QPF will shift north in more climatoligucallly prone areas in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 these situations where the primary stays intact to far north it's bad for the coast...big storms like Dec 1960 had a primary die fast and the hand off to the coastal was east of Virginia... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 11 minutes ago, Enigma said: Three rules come to mind: 1) Axis of heaviest snow about 150-200 miles NW of 850 mb low. 2) NYC metro MECS/HECS are typically modeled in medium range as near misses or SECS, with subtle north shift in precip as event nears in 48-72hrs out. Southern energy and robust moisture feed is under-modeled. 3) Climo: If NWP is consistently showing 12-24 in in Richmond 4/5/6 days out, high chance the heaviest of QPF will shift north in more climatoligucallly prone areas in time. Could not agree more. If you go back to all the "big ones" they pretty much have one thing in common. They are initially labeled as southern sliders or near misses only to creep NW over time. You see it a lot of the time in the mid range where the models can even lose the storm altogether. Another issue what I think is happening which some posters have already stated is that the models are having a problem in which wave to hone in on. Until then expect a lot of jubilation and cliff jumping for a while longer as each model run comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newman Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 30 minutes ago, Enigma said: Three rules come to mind: 1) Axis of heaviest snow about 150-200 miles NW of 850 mb low. 2) NYC metro MECS/HECS are typically modeled in medium range as near misses or SECS, with subtle north shift in precip as event nears in 48-72hrs out. Southern energy and robust moisture feed is under-modeled. 3) Climo: If NWP is consistently showing 12-24 in in Richmond 4/5/6 days out, high chance the heaviest of QPF will shift north in more climatoligucallly prone areas in time. Wasn't '96 modeled to be suppressed but trended north towards start time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 56 minutes ago, Rjay said: No storm signal here. But no Kuchera weenie maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 11 minutes ago, Newman said: Wasn't '96 modeled to be suppressed but trended north towards start time? Euro first showed Jan 1996 about 8 days out. Euro never lost the storm but suppressed it about 5-6 days out with initial NWS forecast as 6-12 in ( including WSW). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 43 minutes ago, uncle W said: these situations where the primary stays intact to far north it's bad for the coast...big storms like Dec 1960 had a primary die fast and the hand off to the coastal was east of Virginia... the bad situation happened a lot in the 80s, Feb 07 was sort of a half/half situation, the primary died out a bit quicker than expected and the arctic air didn't retreat and we stayed cold enough for all frozen. Same happened in March 07 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 12z EPS...suppression followed by SECS Miller B around 198 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 19 minutes ago, Enigma said: 12z EPS...suppression followed by SECS Miller B around 198 hr. What's suppressed ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 18z GFS brings back the storm albeit a day later. Might be a case of keying in on the wrong wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 hours ago, Enigma said: Euro first showed Jan 1996 about 8 days out. Euro never lost the storm but suppressed it about 5-6 days out with initial NWS forecast as 6-12 in ( including WSW). PD2 was also modeled suppressed only to have BOS break there all time single storm snow record at 27”. I really like we’re we stand right now. All the players are on the field. Anyone talking in absolutes is bound to get burned Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Some pretty noticeable changes on the gfs so far 18z vs 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 2 minutes ago, Rjay said: Some pretty noticeable changes on the gfs so far 18z vs 0z You beat me to the punch. Looks like GFS is noticing the first wave. Could have big implications later in the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Lol the gfs is so bad. Well the storm is back on the 0z run when it was basically nonexistent on the 18z run but I don't think this run is going to cut it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 18z vs 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 minutes ago, Rjay said: Lol the gfs is so bad. Well the storm is back on the 0z run when it was basically nonexistent on the 18z run but I don't think this run is going to cut it. Talk about a buzzkill. Storm slides east straight OTS. Didn't see that coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 My personal fav the Ukie looks pretty good at day 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 18 minutes ago, Rjay said: My personal fav the Ukie looks pretty good at day 6 That looks great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 0z GGEM hits us with a pretty good snowstorm on friday as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Ukie images Here's the link to the Ukie images http://wx.graphics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 The Euro was disjointed. Northern stream needs to dive in faster. A strong storm ots this run but there's still some snow in the area. Prob a few inches but it's not from the main low. Maybe from an IVT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 4 minutes ago, Rjay said: The Euro was disjointed. Northern stream needs to dive in faster. A strong storm ots this run but there's still some snow in the area. Prob a few inches but it's not from the main low. Maybe from an IVT. Details that will take a few days to be worked out-I’m not concerned yet. The overall pattern to me looks primed for at least a good swing at something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 3 hours ago, NutleyBlizzard said: Talk about a buzzkill. Storm slides east straight OTS. Didn't see that coming. We really need that SE Ridge to amp up. I don't even care if the storm cuts across Long Island, that's far better than going out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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