WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 6 minutes ago, Paragon said: wow 10 out of 20 are rainy here. That’s for Monday not the big storm next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Just now, WeatherFeen2000 said: That’s for Monday not the big storm next weekend Oh that's a relief lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: Also, if memory serves aren't the very long duration storms closer to spring time? Maybe NAO blocks are more common at that time? I just remembered that March 1956 was another example of a very long duration storm (during a La Nina too.) Cold be something to that theory. I would posit that as wavelengths begin to change seasonally closer to spring it would be easier to find at minimum a pseudo or transitory block more favorable to a slower system. Wonder if Don has any insight on Nao periods later in winter versus longer duration systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Cold be something to that theory. I would posit that as wavelengths begin to change seasonally closer to spring it would be easier to find at minimum a pseudo or transitory block more favorable to a slower system. Wonder if Don has any insight on Nao periods later in winter versus longer duration systems. Yes, thats right, shortening wavelengths give a different outcome than they would in, say, January. Funny thing is before Jan 1996 you have to go really far back to get a HECS-type storm in January. (I'd consider 18+ to be HECS.) Actually March hasn't seen one in a long time either. March 1993 would have been easily, with a slightly further east track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, JetsPens87 said: Cold be something to that theory. I would posit that as wavelengths begin to change seasonally closer to spring it would be easier to find at minimum a pseudo or transitory block more favorable to a slower system. Wonder if Don has any insight on Nao periods later in winter versus longer duration systems. Late in the season, the PNA and then the AO grow less important when it comes to significant snowfalls in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Euro already has some changes early on Energy is ejecting faster and a strong pac ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 19 minutes ago, Paragon said: Yes, thats right, shortening wavelengths give a different outcome than they would in, say, January. Funny thing is before Jan 1996 you have to go really far back to get a HECS-type storm in January. (I'd consider 18+ to be HECS.) Actually March hasn't seen one in a long time either. March 1993 would have been easily, with a slightly further east track. Before 1996, you would have to go really far back to find a HECS type storm in any month in terms of snowfall accumulations in the megalopolis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 22 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: Late in the season, the PNA and then the AO grow less important when it comes to significant snowfalls in the area. Because of shorter wavelengths, Don? What becomes most important? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro already has some changes early on Energy is ejecting faster and a strong pac ridge I hope people are awake for this, keep us updated please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 5 minutes ago, tmagan said: Before 1996, you would have to go really far back to find a HECS type storm in any month in terms of snowfall accumulations in the megalopolis. Only one I can think of in the 80s is Feb 1983. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Euro is a near miss It is now focusing on the 1st vort like the other models are doing I like where we stand Goodnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Looks like a nice snow event for NYE on the Euro Euro still doesn't know which wave to focus on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 00z Euro and 06z GFS could be onto something. Due to the proximity of the PV, I think the flow will remain too flat and confluence in the NE will win out (i.e.: near miss). 06z GFS was substantially weaker with the vort in the west. IMO, the only way we can win here is with a SWFE event. If we have to rely on a Miller A or hybrid ( i.e.: Euro) I think we'll have only a glancing blow and maybe an ACY special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 7 hours ago, Paragon said: Because of shorter wavelengths, Don? What becomes most important? Yes. The shortening wave lengths make local synoptic features more important than the state of the teleconnections late in the season in influencing the outcomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 PNA is forecasted to go positive around next weekend http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/pna.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 5 hours ago, Enigma said: 00z Euro and 06z GFS could be onto something. Due to the proximity of the PV, I think the flow will remain too flat and confluence in the NE will win out (i.e.: near miss). 06z GFS was substantially weaker with the vort in the west. IMO, the only way we can win here is with a SWFE event. If we have to rely on a Miller A or hybrid ( i.e.: Euro) I think we'll have only a glancing blow and maybe an ACY special. The storm signal is there right now. That’s all we need. Anyone playing model verbatim is going to get burned. Yesterday’s runs showing a HEC got the weenies excited and this mornings runs the warministas. Thruth usually lies between the two Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: This is really close to being something big. Just need some help from the PNA and NAO to get the vort to dig enough. The NAO and PNA are right on the edge. Just not sure yet if our area jackpots or New England takes the prize. I’d be happy with a nice warning level event. With the amount of cold air around if we are fringed it would be a powder all snow event. My favorite kind. At this juncture using the seasonal trend I want to see a near miss. Anything tight and tucked is liable to come in too close to the coast. My worst fear is a March 17 repeat. That was a heart breaker on the island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
swataz Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 22 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The storm signal is there right now. That’s all we need. Anyone playing model verbatim is going to get burned. Yesterday’s runs showing a HEC got the weenies excited and this mornings runs the warministas. Thruth usually lies between the two Warministas. Love it. Yes, there is a certain danger to model hugging, especially with this one. I was surprised (shouldn't have been) about the waffling this close to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 CMC has a snow event for the coast with the 1st wave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 A lot of vorts on the GFS Models are going to have a tough time with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: A lot of vorts on the GFS Models are going to have a tough time with this CMC has the second storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 minute ago, BlizzardNYC said: CMC has the second storm 6-12 for next Friday These models don't know which vort to focus on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: A lot of vorts on the GFS Models are going to have a tough time with this It always seems like we go through this model mayhem before some of our biggest storms occur. At this range I am not really worried about what the GFS and even the Euro are currently showing. If this was 2-3 days from now then it might be time to start worrying a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 GEFS loves next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 1 hour ago, Rtd208 said: It always seems like we go through this model mayhem before some of our biggest storms occur. At this range I am not really worried about what the GFS and even the Euro are currently showing. If this was 2-3 days from now then it might be time to start worrying a bit. That the storm is still shown to varying degrees on the ensembles carries more weight at this time than the operational model solutions. The 12z GEFS mean is still fairly impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Enigma Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: That the storm is still shown to varying degrees on the ensembles carries more weight at this time than the operational model solutions. The 12z GEFS mean is still fairly impressive. H5 vort diving south a little later on GEFS but still produces a MECS. GFS missed the phase also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The storm signal is there right now. That’s all we need. Anyone playing model verbatim is going to get burned. Yesterday’s runs showing a HEC got the weenies excited and this mornings runs the warministas. Thruth usually lies between the two The real problem lies with people who made plans in advance for that week. The uncertainty is what messes plans made in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The storm signal is there right now. That’s all we need. Anyone playing model verbatim is going to get burned. Yesterday’s runs showing a HEC got the weenies excited and this mornings runs the warministas. Thruth usually lies between the two Actually using recent climatology the truth usually ends up being one or the other. We very rarely get minimal warning level events anymore. Either we see a 1-3" consolation prize or we see a 12"+ snow storm. Our snowfall climatology has shown this to be the case since the 90s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 2 hours ago, bluewave said: This is really close to being something big. Just need some help from the PNA and NAO to get the vort to dig enough. The NAO and PNA are right on the edge. Just not sure yet if our area jackpots or New England takes the prize. Problem is in recent years those who are not in the jackpot area get fringed, there is no in-between lol. Remember Jan 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Euro came in better. Moderate event for the HV, heavy snows for NYC/NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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