uncle W Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 no January thawing...February will be boring...a good January thaw...February will snow more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Don't stress over the individual storm details in a pattern like this beyond 2-3 ahead. This a a very unusual narrow extreme block going up north of Alaska. Makes for different model solutions each model cycle until we get close enough. +400 to+450 meters north of Alaska is near record levels for late December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The long range NAM continues to be flat as a pancake. This is what you want to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 HI RES NAM LOOKING BETTER HERE. 12Z SLP is out over the POLAR front / It will eventually be on the Arctic Boundary The ULL looks like the GFS / But the NAM is just wrong jumping the low too far east. This is not a big system until you get to New England. But it should snow some on the coast and around the area for Christmas day , which does not happen very often. But as you can see the NAM has improved and will take some time as the N stream energy will get sampled for another 2 days. Twice so far the N stream energy has been under modeled in the L/R and twice this year the models have worked the E/C S/W back towards the Arctic boundary. I would continue to watch to see this improve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Wow at the overrunning to a coastal event for next weekend on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Over a foot of snow on the 18z GFS for the coast with more inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LurkerBoy Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, Snow88 said: Over a foot of snow on the 18z GFS for the coast with more inland Xmas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, LurkerBoy said: Xmas? Snowshowers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Over a foot of snow on the 18z GFS for the coast with more inland lol we might be coming back here early Why is this getting pushed back more though? Before it was supposed to be snowing Wednesday into Thursday Looks like the Poconos will get the brunt of it and in no mood to shovel so will be coming back early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 8 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: The closest analogs to this so far may be a combination of 95-96 and 2010-11 without the -NAOs. It could come down to if the colder anomalies begin shifting as they did in 10-11. That may tell us if we see simply a January thaw or we flip warm and don’t go back That's why the 95-96 analog needs to be used with caution. There could be a flip back but not as strong as that year too. We got a lot of March events that winter haven't seen anything like that frequency since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1995-96 didn't have near 60 degrees the week before Christmas...it had just the opposite...8" of snow with cold...a 1995-96 type winter is not going to happen this year...or next... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 41 minutes ago, uncle W said: 1995-96 didn't have near 60 degrees the week before Christmas...it had just the opposite...8" of snow with cold...a 1995-96 type winter is not going to happen this year...or next... Well that was extremely rare to get so much snow after a big thaw like that, but we're just looking for similarities for the first half of winter right now. I'd be equally cautious about 2000-01 because that would have been a much snowier winter had March 2001 done what it was supposed to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 3 hours ago, uncle W said: 1995-96 didn't have near 60 degrees the week before Christmas...it had just the opposite...8" of snow with cold...a 1995-96 type winter is not going to happen this year...or next... 3 hours ago, Paragon said: Well that was extremely rare to get so much snow after a big thaw like that, but we're just looking for similarities for the first half of winter right now. I'd be equally cautious about 2000-01 because that would have been a much snowier winter had March 2001 done what it was supposed to do. Snowfall amounts seem like more of a wildcard than temps though. Final totals never account for near-misses. How does 2013-14 hold up as an analog? I recall some warm days preceding Xmas, followed by an intense post-New Years MECS, and a see-saw -EPO-driven January that featured some especially cold pixie dust snowstorms. ENSO-wise, I remember it starting neutral and stepping down Niña-ish as January progressed. Decidedly +PDO is one major difference though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Coastal crusher on the Euro over a week from now. (Warning criteria for most of the subforum.) Pattern looks ripe for a decent shot at either overturning snows or a coastal in the 28th-30th time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Whenever models all consistently showing a big storm 7+ days out, it's likely going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 4 hours ago, Rjay said: Coastal crusher on the Euro over a week from now. (Warning criteria for most of the subforum.) Pattern looks ripe for a decent shot at either overturning snows or a coastal in the 28th-30th time frame. Rjay. We love this one. It looks like a long duration cold event. 850s - 10 the Boundary is between 10 and 15 and it snows for 24 hours. Hate to yell snowstorm that early , but that's what we disco'd 2 days ago. This is a MECS I am happy Christmas is going to work out for many , but next weekend has all the ear marks man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 30 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Whenever models all consistently showing a big storm 7+ days out, it's likely going to happen. I'm not quite ready to sound the alarms for next week; its starting to get close, but all the big storms are seen way out by the models. The March superstorm of 93 was picked up 10+ days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Is the potential for next weekend mainly a coastal impact? Will be in the Catskills. I know its early but just doing my due diligence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 RJay, Stickies not updating in Tapatalk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: We are finally getting to the better MJO phases for snow that we were discussing earlier in the month. There is the strong -EPO and MJO 8 signal. The EPS is also indicating that we may get a brief -NAO dip a few days before the 30th to help things along. Hello. I wanted to get your opinion on the weeklies. Does the warm up in 3 weeks plus look like a reload or full pattern flip, or is it just too early to tell at this point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: I saw the weeklies and it seems to match the idea of a relaxation or moderation around the 2nd week of January. But while the -EPO looks to back off for a while, there are hits in the weeklies of the -EPO trying to reload later in January or early in February. So I don't think that winter will be over in terms of snow for us even if we get a stronger temp rebound second week of Jan. But I think in terms of Arctic cold, the last week of December and first of January may be the coldest we see this winter. Any -EPO reload for later in the winter may not be able to reach the intensity we just saw in November and December. But remember how a little -EPO blocking last January and February went along way for snow even without much cold. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 1 hour ago, ILoveWinter said: Is the potential for next weekend mainly a coastal impact? Will be in the Catskills. I know its early but just doing my due diligence. Catskills get crushed. I think the system impacts a very large area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Gefs look great for next weekends system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 14 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Catskills get crushed. I think the system impacts a very large area Great thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 12Z GFS mostly a miss here for the 30th., as greatest lift develops ESE of NYC. We just get brushed on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 naso good... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, CIK62 said: 12Z GFS mostly a miss here for the 30th., as greatest lift develops ESE of NYC. We just get brushed on this run. Way too early to expect any kind of run to run consistency. This run it loses the over-running and instead focuses on the coastal but mostly misses to the east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 22 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Way too early to expect any kind of run to run consistency. This run it loses the over-running and instead focuses on the coastal but mostly misses to the east That is the threat with the end of next week storm, suppressed to our south and a miss south/OTS. A southern slider is certainly on the table here. That is the threat with this, not a cutter or runner or coastal hugger IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 27 minutes ago, CIK62 said: 12Z GFS mostly a miss here for the 30th., as greatest lift develops ESE of NYC. We just get brushed on this run. Given the forecast sharpening of the PNA ridge on the ensembles (excluding the 12z GEFS, which is not finished running), I believe something closer to the coast is more likely than this solution. Still, as there's a lot of time between now and the forecast event, one can't fully dismiss the 12z GFS solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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