PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: The latest JMA this morning continues the theme of cold and snow chances week one and 2. Its going to the relaxation idea weeks 3-4 like the EPE seasonal and weeklies have been showing for a while. Get me to Jan 10 with what is forecast and we will need a break. Weeklies tonight , here is one thing people have to understand , the weeklies may be 2 weeks of plus 5 , but in mid Jan that is a lot different than plus 5 in early December. We can always snow in bad patterns in mid Jan / see Jan 2016 , just something to file. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Get me to Jan 10 with what is forecast and we will need a break. Weeklies tonight , here is one thing people have to understand , the weeklies may be 2 weeks of plus 5 , but in mid Jan that is a lot different than plus 5 in early December. We can always snow in bad patterns in mid Jan / see Jan 2016 , just something to file. +5 in many interior sections in mid January will probably still only be around mid thirties in the daytime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Get me to Jan 10 with what is forecast and we will need a break. Weeklies tonight , here is one thing people have to understand , the weeklies may be 2 weeks of plus 5 , but in mid Jan that is a lot different than plus 5 in early December. We can always snow in bad patterns in mid Jan / see Jan 2016 , just something to file. The closest analogs to this so far may be a combination of 95-96 and 2010-11 without the -NAOs. It could come down to if the colder anomalies begin shifting as they did in 10-11. That may tell us if we see simply a January thaw or we flip warm and don’t go back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Lol @ last 4 Gefs and GFS - EPO Arctic waves. That`s why we don`t look at the SLP on the guidance 5 days out. The model always places the SW on the polar front and then finds a way to stick it on the Arctic boundary. These fade to the BM / Posted Saturday at 08:11 AM Why I really like the Christmas period Taking a look at this mornings day 10 EPS you can see the start of softening SE of the BM All the operational have seen this to some degree or another and with various precip types from run to run. So models aside , I am going to favor the pattern here and what these Arctic waves typically likes to do , and that's find its way to the BM. That should allow us to remain on the favorable side of the barroclinic zone. With a -4 SD EPO it will dominate the pattern. -EPO confluence / HP systems press through the lakes and are usually under modeled in the L/R. We have a dominate well sourced vortex over Hudson Bay as the 0 line will be at the US / Canada border. ( that's 0 Fahrenheit) ,so this press should actually dominate the flow and suppression should be more of a worry to me than rain. So that SE ridge albeit weak will be a necessity and help guide one or more of these positively tilted SWs out of TX off the Delmarva and ending up near the BM There are forcing`s that are greater than numerical guidance, Operational runs come and go , but it is important to identify the type of system you are dealing with , the models will come to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: The closest analogs to this so far may be a combination of 95-96 and 2010-11 without the -NAOs. It could come down to if the colder anomalies begin shifting as they did in 10-11. That may tell us if we see simply a January thaw or we flip warm and don’t go back Hard for me to believe that we end winter on Jan 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Hard for me to believe that we end winter on Jan 10. i won't believe it until the first day of spring arrives officially... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 24 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Get me to Jan 10 with what is forecast and we will need a break. Weeklies tonight , here is one thing people have to understand , the weeklies may be 2 weeks of plus 5 , but in mid Jan that is a lot different than plus 5 in early December. We can always snow in bad patterns in mid Jan / see Jan 2016 , just something to file. Even if we do get some relaxation of the pattern week 3-4, I don't think it will be the end of winter. There is bound to be more -EPO intervals for snow and cold. Maybe we get lucky and see some -NAO help along the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 27 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Hard for me to believe that we end winter on Jan 10. I dunno. On January 10th, I think I will be pretty certain that winter won't last forever. But it wouldn't really be us ending it when it does...more of a natural cycle sort of thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 29 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Hard for me to believe that we end winter on Jan 10. Not with the new normal. We could easily see another epic pattern in February. As long as we don’t have a mega torch that ruins the ski season a January relaxation is fine with me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 10 minutes ago, JC-CT said: I dunno. On January 10th, I think I will be pretty certain that winter won't last forever. But it wouldn't really be us ending it when it does...more of a natural cycle sort of thing. Really ? LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Looks like snow showers for the area on Xmas Euro shifted pretty far east and weaker. Still a few more runs to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 56 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Get me to Jan 10 with what is forecast and we will need a break. Weeklies tonight , here is one thing people have to understand , the weeklies may be 2 weeks of plus 5 , but in mid Jan that is a lot different than plus 5 in early December. We can always snow in bad patterns in mid Jan / see Jan 2016 , just something to file. I would much rather have borderline cold and active storms than overwhelming cold and suppression city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 39 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Hard for me to believe that we end winter on Jan 10. 23 minutes ago, bluewave said: Even if we do get some relaxation of the pattern week 3-4, I don't think it will be the end of winter. There is bound to be more -EPO intervals for snow and cold. Maybe we get lucky and see some -NAO help along the way. Yeah I have to agree here. Aside from the sheer improbability of such an abrupt end (2010-11 seems like an oddball), the past few winters tend to favor extended -EPO periods. You'd also have to think that we get some transient, non-PAC-related help at some point too. I wouldn't even be surprised if we get a freak, low single digit cold snap later in the winter as well (ala Feb. 2016 Kara Ridge-aided trip below 0°F)....just the way things have broken for us in the past few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 hour ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: I was thinking 60 and Rain. Or nothing at all. The Euro just completely and totally dumped the storm, like the GFS had. Nothing. Zilch. Nada. Zip Zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Or nothing at all. The Euro just completely and totally dumped the storm, like the GFS has. Nothing. Zilch. Nada. Zip Zero Yesterday you were on the rain train / today you buying a whiff ? That`s gona make you wrong twice on one storm. ( kind of a record in here my man ) . You don`t forecast model run to model run. So let`s keep score, you`re 60 and rain busted. ( I THINK WE CAN AGREE THAT IS NOT HAPPENING RIGHT ? ) Now you are on the whiff train - let`s score that soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Now some of you need to be careful when reading SNOWMAN . The Euro just completely and totally dumped the storm, like the GFS has. Nothing. Zilch. Nada. Zip Zero OPENLY LYING TO THE BOARD SHOULD GET HIM A TIMEOUT. THE BOARD CAN NOT PERMIT LYING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 It may not be nothing but seeing the Euro trend in that direction as we get closer isn't a good thing. That's very close to its deadly range, we'll see tomorrow if it changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Gfs has a big snowstorm next weekend Weenie pattern next week I have liked that period for awhile for the possibility of a KU. You're probably going to need the Christmas storm to speed up and get out of the way however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Now some of you need to be careful when reading SNOWMAN . The Euro just completely and totally dumped the storm, like the GFS has. Nothing. Zilch. Nada. Zip Zero OPENLY LYING TO THE BOARD SHOULD GET HIM A TIMEOUT. THE BOARD CAN NOT PERMIT LYING. I would love for there to be a storm, but .01 of precip is basically equal to no storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 12 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Or nothing at all. The Euro just completely and totally dumped the storm, like the GFS had. Nothing. Zilch. Nada. Zip Zero That's not entirely accurate. Gets a small amount of snow to the coast, which as I understand is exactly what most have been expecting...nothing more.... If you're going to model-watch, at least be honest about what each run shows man. ETA: Ninja'ed by Paul! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 29 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It may not be nothing but seeing the Euro trend in that direction as we get closer isn't a good thing. That's very close to its deadly range, we'll see tomorrow if it changes. The Euro didn`t come west for Dec 10 until it was 72 hours out. The Euro has no more " deadly " range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 29 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Looks like snow showers for the area on Xmas Euro shifted pretty far east and weaker. Still a few more runs to go I saw this coming after last nights run. It was a shift towards the flatter and weaker GFS. The long range NAM from 12z as well as the rest of the guidance prior to the Euro was telling. Just look at the 500mb jet and compare it to yesterday's run. As they say, the trend is not your friend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: I have liked that period for awhile for the possibility of a KU. You're probably going to need the Christmas storm to speed up and get out of the way however. They are 5 days apart , there is plenty of spacing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, Eduardo said: That's not entirely accurate. Gets a small amount of snow to the coast, which as I understand is exactly what most have been expecting...nothing more.... If you're going to model-watch, at least be honest about what each run shows man. ETA: Ninja'ed by Paul! That’s what he does. He did it with our first storm on the 10th... the NAM showed a hit and he bought a joke posted on the New England forums that it was a miss. Trollman19 at his finest...hopefully the mods get involved for him posting false model info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: It may not be nothing but seeing the Euro trend in that direction as we get closer isn't a good thing. That's very close to its deadly range, we'll see tomorrow if it changes. Euro doesn't have a deadly range anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: They are 5 days apart , there is plenty of spacing. They aren't as far apart if you go back to the amplified, less progressive pattern the Euro had previously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 For those wondering about the follow up storm on the Euro, it's there but it holds off until day 9-10. The wave for day 7-8 goes off the Carolina Coast and East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The lack of humility, and even worse, the apparent forgetfullness of some of those same people who made grandiose claims only to be dead wrong in recent weeks, is killing this forum. Discuss the storm as a future entity, no one gives a sh*t if youre wrong or right if you can post about it in a proper manner. Getting it right because you learned something, or even better, TAUGHT something, is a lot better than getting it right because youve thrown the pessimistic darts at the wall for years, hoping some will stick to outweigh some of the blatant weeniesm. Back up your claims with models, meteorology, even bill evans blog for all i care. Any posts that discuss other posters (not their posts, the actual posters), claim victory 4 days before a storm, or any other nonsense, regardless of how well thought out the rest of the post is, are going to be deleted so we can start cleaning this up and having respectable threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: They aren't as far apart if you go back to the amplified, less progressive pattern the Euro had previously. I think this will just slow it down which is good for us Use the GFS ensembles , the Euro at 186 is feeding back out west so it elongates the flow and sends it E of the Carolina`s. The NEG will be more West to East and that ridge will allow 186 to come N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Looks like my previous post regarding this was deleted, not sure why. Here's another shot: If you look at the trend of the 500mb jet over the last three cycles of the Euro you can see a clear shift towards the flatter, weaker GFS. You still have quite a bit of energy wrapping around the base of the trough, however you have no mechanism to force development of the SLP on a more Northeasterly trajectory. Instead the redevelopment occurs and moves ENE, leaving most of the area with dry and cold conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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