UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, Snow88 said: White Xmas for everyone on the cmc and gfs not sure how looking at "trends" on the GFS could even be taken seriously at this point...Its jumped hundred of miles with just 6 runs...euro moved the Rain line 20 miles south, and has held fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Coastal snowstorm next weekend on the cmc No overrunning Pure coastal with the low near the bm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 You could see it coming early in the run over KS/MO. The GFS was notably stronger with that disturbance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 The gfs wasn't far off from delivering a significant snow event. It moved toward the Euro, should be interesting to see what the Euro does now. Late bloomer right now, SNE will do very well with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I think it was NJWx who brought this up. But if this event happens it’s likely a classic shadow event somewhere. That disturbance will give way to the coastal and someone is screwed. Not that anyone is likely to be crushed with this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 19 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: not sure how looking at "trends" on the GFS could even be taken seriously at this point...Its jumped hundred of miles with just 6 runs...euro moved the Rain line 20 miles south, and has held fast Just when I gave the GFS credit after I saw the NAM, it did this. SMH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, snowman19 said: Just when I gave the GFS credit after I saw the NAM, it did this. SMH The NAM has gotten significantly better the last 12-18 months beyond 36-48 hours. I think it may have been upgraded in the fall of 16 at some point. It will rarelt amp things up anymore but it still can totally miss less dynamic setups at that range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Gfs is cooking up a monster at 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The gfs wasn't far off from delivering a significant snow event. It moved toward the Euro, should be interesting to see what the Euro does now. Late bloomer right now, SNE will do very well with this. New England may do well, especially interior central and northern New England but this is no more than a very light 1-3 inch event for our area. It never was anything more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 10 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs is cooking up a monster at 180 Classic DC to Boston snowstorm despite the low going stage right at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 8 minutes ago, snowman19 said: New England may do well, especially interior central and northern New England but this is no more than a very light 1-3 inch event for our area. It never was anything more Nobody is looking for 10 feet on Christmas , I’ll take 1-2 inches and run with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 9 minutes ago, snowman19 said: New England may do well, especially interior central and northern New England but this is no more than a very light 1-3 inch event for our area. It never was anything more We don't know that for sure yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Gfs has a big snowstorm next weekend Weenie pattern next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I have a concern the storm next week is more of a southern slider. It’s still too early but I think the idea is possible if timing is wrong or “too good” for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: We don't know that for sure yet Considering it was forecast to be in 60s several days ago and the significant jump on the gfs, nothing is set in stone. I'd risk a slider right now for the second storm, better than a clear cutter, but given the MJO forecast I'd be shocked if we didn't get at least a SECS out of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 16 minutes ago, snowman19 said: New England may do well, especially interior central and northern New England but this is no more than a very light 1-3 inch event for our area. It never was anything more I was thinking 60 and Rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: I have a concern the storm next week is more of a southern slider. It’s still too early but I think the idea is possible if timing is wrong or “too good” for us Next weekend is all out Snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs has a big snowstorm next weekend Weenie pattern next week Without looking at the clown maps, looked like a MECS to me. Could of been more impressive if the low took the benchmark instead of sliding east OTS. Maybe GFS is showing its SE bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Next weekend is all out Snowstorm. Famous last words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Considering it was forecast to be in 60s several days ago and the significant jump on the gfs, nothing is set in stone. I'd risk a slider right now for the second storm, better than a clear cutter, but given the MJO forecast I'd be shocked if we didn't get at least a SECS out of that. The tendency early on this winter has been to go weaker with systems. Not as in trend weaker per say but just not to have big amped up deep lows which is more classic of a La Niña anyway but I would feel better about this at least not over phasing as the seasonal trend has so far shown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Famous last words C'mon you again? There's no denying the pattern looks ripe for a major event next weekend. All the ensembles are showing it, not just some random OP run. Don't be a grinch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, NutleyBlizzard said: C'mon you again? There's no denying the pattern looks ripe for a major event next weekend. All the ensembles are showing it, not just some random OP run. Don't be a grinch. he's a good luck charm...ever since he's been here snowfall is above average despite the warmth the last two winters...we are above average this year so far and will continue to be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Can’t really tell much from the UKMET. It looks like maybe middle ground between GFS and Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Coastal snowstorm next weekend on the cmc No overrunning Pure coastal with the low near the bmThe CMC ownes me thousands of inches of snow. Just saying... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, snowman19 said: Famous last words You realize all these calls are made with a lot of work behind them right ? 2 snow calls a week out on the coast this month while you and others were swearing off a flake 3 days earlier . A call for a white Christmas from last Friday when the models had a big S/E ridge , we knew was wrong , but kept reading in here how Christmas would be 60 / brown / dry. There should come a point in here that you try and learn how we see these things and not just look at numerical guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 7 minutes ago, USCG RS said: 55 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Coastal snowstorm next weekend on the cmc No overrunning Pure coastal with the low near the bm The CMC ownes me thousands of inches of snow. Just saying... If that slight -NAO dip verifies, then it would help our cause. Even without it, there should be a snow event just due to the favorable -EPO and MJO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: If that slight -NAO dip verifies, then it would help our cause. Even without it, there should be a snow event just due to the favorable -EPO and MJO. Absolutely. Both will stick the tough in the east in the means. So nothing cuts and because the WESTERN ridge push poleward the height falls will come all the way the E/C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Let’s start a thread for the Christmas storm. It’s startubg to get confusing with next weeks threat. Which by the way looks legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 5 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Absolutely. Both will stick the tough in the east in the means. So nothing cuts and because the WESTERN ridge push poleward the height falls will come all the way the E/C The latest JMA this morning continues the theme of cold and snow chances week 1-2. It's going to the relaxation idea weeks 3-4 like the EPS seasonal and weeklies have been showing for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 Lol @ last 4 Gefs and GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.