Paragon Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 6 hours ago, NJwx85 said: The surface low develops over NNJ then tracks over SNE and up into the Gulf of Maine. It's a great setup for a major snowstorm for interior NY, PA and Western New England. Sounds like the Poconos are the place to be! I might be going there Saturday and staying there until New Years. Can you look a bit ahead at the middle-end of week storm next week and tell me if that looks better for the Poconos vs the coast too? If it's going to be better for the coast, I might come back early! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 6 hours ago, purduewx80 said: Fresh Arctic air does not come in until the Sun/Mon system passes. La Nina + seasonal trends for the bulkier-than-forecast SE/Atlantic ridge will win out this round along the coast/city proper, imo, not that a quick change to snow is impossible Sun/Mon as the system departs. The threat late next week is the one to watch. I think you're talking about the Wednesday night-Thursday threat before New Years? I'm wondering about that one too. Wondering if it's a better bet for the Poconos or the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 hour ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: Complete BS. I missed the one minor coastal scraper. I nailed that December would feature significant gold six or seven weeks ago before anyone. Spin the week leading up to Christmas how you wish but you blew that one. You laughed st others suggesting we’d have a moderation lasting more than a day or two and said the period between the 20-25 would be cold with snow. It’s not. I believe you even said White Christmas, not. You’ve been no better than I have, and your immediate call now leading into Christmas Day went up in smoke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Wow. A lot of chest thumping on this site and general nastiness. Hello, it's weather guys, an inexact science. Everybody needs to take a chill pill. Geez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 hour ago, Snow88 said: I couldn’t agree more. How the F did Christmas happen already? :Reality: absolutely anything can still happen. This is a completely separate threat from the inland runner. Which in it of itself isn’t even a true cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 hour ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Wow. A lot of chest thumping on this site and general nastiness. Hello, it's weather guys, an inexact science. Everybody needs to take a chill pill. Geez. Great post Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 hour ago, HeadInTheClouds said: Wow. A lot of chest thumping on this site and general nastiness. Hello, it's weather guys, an inexact science. Everybody needs to take a chill pill. Geez. Ego is beating Sanity to a pulp in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Now let's all be nice and wish everyone else Happy Holidays! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Back to the models... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 6 minutes ago, Rjay said: Back to the models... Agree , I owe you an apology You have your hands full Will ignore for you and BX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 End of Nam is uncharacteristicly flat.....hmmm...looks even worse than gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 10 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: End of Nam is uncharacteristicly flat.....hmmm...looks even worse than gfs yeah the NAM and many other models haven’t really been giving me much confidence the Euro is correct with its idea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: yeah the NAM and many other models haven’t really been giving me much confidence the Euro is correct with its idea They are all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 We should all be excited about an active pattern coming irrespective of individual model solutions. The potential for snow is high the next two weeks. That is awesome! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 Nam is way south with the cold injection/ULL compared...we just need the energy like euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 Our ULL and our cold injection, way south on NAM, despite weak energy for storm compared to euro at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 Gfs still flat, no dice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 This will either be epic fail by euro or gfs...either way it’s a major mid range fail by one of them....they literally couldn’t be more different, not sure I’ve seen such disagreements within 5 days....just goes to show the range of possibilities still on table Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 23 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Nice, looks like that'd be snow to ice to snow for the HV, looks like it actually went South, need the Grinch Forecast System to bust hard Edit...that's the 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 Before the posts begin about GGEM cave....GGEM is faster by about 4 hours...that’s it..it was the whole difference imo....gfs is wayyy faster/flatter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 The GGEM snowstorm at the end tho lol wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: The GGEM snowstorm at the end tho lol wow That’s a KU lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Gotta love how the gfs just destroys the confluence and plows through the arctic air for the post Christmas storm. Storm will probably end up a good 500 miles south than it's current position on the gfs. Strong -EPO with a growing -AO/NAO will not cause a big ridge over the east like the 0z gfs shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 42 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: This will either be epic fail by euro or gfs...either way it’s a major mid range fail by one of them....they literally couldn’t be more different, not sure I’ve seen such disagreements within 5 days....just goes to show the range of possibilities still on table The GFS is also a torch post 120 in the SE U.S which is night and day compared to the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Where's metfan aka snow88 with the GFS snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 26 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Gotta love how the gfs just destroys the confluence and plows through the arctic air for the post Christmas storm. Storm will probably end up a good 500 miles south than it's current position on the gfs. Strong -EPO with a growing -AO/NAO will not cause a big ridge over the east like the 0z gfs shows. -EPO MJO in 8 into 1 Trough in Europe crashing SOI All argue for the trough on the E/C The GFS feedback over the Rockies kicks the ridge up in front of it is probably wrong That ridge will not exist The SW will get pushed under and come to the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 NavGEM even picking up on the Christmas event now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 29 minutes ago, yoda said: Where's metfan aka snow88 with the GFS snow map? It's in the other thread lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 Euro nearly gets NYC all snow... ULL in a much better position and our energy digs a bit deeper, Much colder run.. euro says GFS who Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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