December Model Discussion

[ILoveWinter]

1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

How come you only post when the models show rain or warmth ?

I don’t post much but am a lurker, I could not agree more. It’s very predictable.

[Neblizzard]

22 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

The models have completely backed down on the strength of the arctic outbreak. This is going to be run of the mill cold now. It’s no longer historic. Never said it wasn’t going to be cold, stop it. You only show up to hype snow threats

I haven’t hyped up one snow threat.  You don’t need historic cold for snowstorms.  Maybe if you took met courses you would understand that.  You need to look at the models closely to see what the potential is.  Next time the NAM shows something substantial, make sure you read it before posting.   Going into the New England thread  and saying the storm was out to sea made you look foolish just a few weeks ago.

 

[SnoSki14]

Any Christmas snow will be a tough sell outside far NW or elevated areas. 

I like that the AO has a more negative trajectory for the 25-31st period. It gives credence that our best chance at a snow event would be during that time frame. 

And I could care less that the "cold" won't be as strong as forecast, it just has to be cold enough for snow. Arctic cold sucks either way. 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

still nice storm 28th on euro

[NJwx85]

2 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

still nice storm 28th on euro

That's just post day 7 OP run nonsense.

The period to watch is just before New Years.

[SnowGoose69]

The Euro is likely overamped for Christmas.  It’s been fairly common to see it do this at this range the last 2-3 years since it upgraded.  I am guessing the ensembles are flatter.  Regardless we need big changes to see coastal snow here.  The track the op Euro shows would be unfavorable for backend snows because it goes too much to our north so we would downslope 

[redbanknjandbigbasslakepa]

The Euro is a disaster for Christmas. It’s nothing but a wind driven rain and then flash freeze for Christmas Day now. The holiday weekend is essentially a mild washout. Give it a week, the pattern after will be better for the coast, likely a couple chances at snow to rain. 

[White Gorilla]

I will wait for Friday - Saturday trends about Christmas potential. 

[ILoveWinter]

23 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

The Euro is a disaster for Christmas. It’s nothing but a wind driven rain and then flash freeze for Christmas Day now. The holiday weekend is essentially a mild washout. Give it a week, the pattern after will be better for the coast, likely a couple chances at snow to rain. 

Disaster? That would mean we all expected a snowstorm and end up with rain instead. A rain event was always in the cards for Christmas. That being said, still lots of time here.

 

[MJO812]

Eps is further east and colder for xmas

[NJwx85]

48 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The Euro is likely overamped for Christmas.  It’s been fairly common to see it do this at this range the last 2-3 years since it upgraded.  I am guessing the ensembles are flatter.  Regardless we need big changes to see coastal snow here.  The track the op Euro shows would be unfavorable for backend snows because it goes too much to our north so we would downslope 

The EPS actually looks in fairly good agreement with the OP. The only difference is that the mean tracks the SLP a bit further offshore but that could be skewed by a few far Eastern outliers.

[redbanknjandbigbasslakepa]

9 minutes ago, ILoveWinter said:

Disaster? That would mean we all expected a snowstorm and end up with rain instead. A rain event was always in the cards for Christmas. That being said, still lots of time here.

 

Not completely true, some where hanging onto the chance of snow. 

[NJwx85]

Just now, Snow88 said:

Eps is further east and colder for xmas

You cannot disseminate that from an ensemble mean, vulnerable to major outliers skewing it.

[dmillz25]

That -AO is looking real nice in the EPS

[MJO812]

33 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

You cannot disseminate that from an ensemble mean, vulnerable to major outliers skewing it.

There are plenty of members east of the op

[NJwx85]

3 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

There are plenty of members east of the op

And plenty of members are well West.

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

The Euro is a disaster for Christmas. It’s nothing but a wind driven rain and then flash freeze for Christmas Day now. The holiday weekend is essentially a mild washout. Give it a week, the pattern after will be better for the coast, likely a couple chances at snow to rain. 

Since when was it supposed to be something else? 

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Since when was it supposed to be something else? 

 Do you really think that's the final solution ?

Expect more changes coming up

 

 

 

[Stormlover74]

Why is everyone so obsessed with Christmas? If it doesn't snow but we get 2 storms in the week that follows that's a win to me

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

2 hours ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

The Euro is a disaster for Christmas. It’s nothing but a wind driven rain and then flash freeze for Christmas Day now. The holiday weekend is essentially a mild washout. Give it a week, the pattern after will be better for the coast, likely a couple chances at snow to rain. 

 

Let me get this straight , you actually sit here with a straight face and ask people to take your work seriously after calling for an AN November by plus 4 , and AN by December you missed the Dec 10th 4 to 6 inch snowfall that we saw and posted on for a week.

You went to tell everyone how you were Barry Bonds and that you had the hot had , but before Dec 10 came and went you busted 3x.

Then last weeks coastal that dropped 3 to 4 from CNJ out to L.I you and snowman laughed the day prior and said there was no way it would snow on the coast.

 

So by Dec 15th you were 0 for 4. Should have take the intentional pass.

 

Then you snoski and snowman all bought the SE ridge for Christmas you guys posted for days that it was going to 60 all weekend with a disaster for Christmas ? My goodness , who in here reads your stuff , it`s a collection of busts and model hugging. 

 

 

Now this is what you 3 bought for Christmas 7 days ago 

 

 

Here is what believed and have been writing about away for more than 7 days / Now I can`t explain how we knew this , you Snoski and Snowman would never be able to follow

It`s written in detail , but I will save you the trouble.

I am not sure who is telling the board that the EPS cluster is west , it`s not it`s East . It seems to be another poster who does not have access to these models. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And here is the disaster at 850 ( these are the actual 850s ) I will not explain wet bulbing to you , you will get lost 

See the actual 0 line with LP at the BM  ? Good 

 

Here`s one better / here`s the UKMET

 

 

Here is your torch weekend  per the EPS

Christmas Eve 42 / 33

Christmas Day  40 / 32

Side note Rain changing to Snow on Christmas day with an inch or so is a lot better than the 60 and rain you have been putting out. 

I put my Christmas forecast out on Saturday when the models had 60 and rain.  You wouldn`t understand how we even came this far unless a model shows you. 

 

 

Now the 3 of you really hurt this board, it`s nothing personal but not one of could ever figure out how we took a forecast of 60 and rain to possible snow even ALONG THE COAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY. You guys troll good work and no one here makes you answer for never doing any work.

Some of you speak in such absolutes and just swing from model to model. When the GFS came out at 12z , you guys were posting how it was dry.

Then the Euro came out and you guys thought it would be 50 and rain. There is very little work done in here and you 3 keep making the same mistakes , making the board difficult to navigate.

This is constructive criticism that I hope someone addresses you 3 so you don`t drive everyone away. 

 

 

[PB COLTS NECK NJ]

Now going forward the week between Dec 28 - Jan 5 THE PATTERN will offer a significant snowstorm on the E/C.

 

[White Gorilla]

22 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

Let me get this straight , you actually sit here with a straight face and ask people to take your work seriously after calling for an AN November by plus 4 , and AN by December you missed the Dec 10th 4 to 6 inch snowfall that we saw and posted on for a week.

You went to tell everyone how you were Barry Bonds and that you had the hot had , but before Dec 10 came and went you busted 3x.

Then last weeks coastal that dropped 3 to 4 from CNJ out to L.I you and snowman laughed the day prior and said there was no way it would snow on the coast.

 

So by Dec 15th you were 0 for 4. Should have take the intentional pass.

 

Then you snoski and snowman all bought the SE ridge for Christmas you guys posted for days that it was going to 60 all weekend with a disaster for Christmas ? My goodness , who in here reads your stuff , it`s a collection of busts and model hugging. 

 

 

Now this is what you 3 bought for Christmas 7 days ago 

 

 

Here is what believed and have been writing about away for more than 7 days / Now I can`t explain how we knew this , you Snoski and Snowman would never be able to follow

It`s written in detail , but I will save you the trouble.

I am not sure who is telling the board that the EPS cluster is west , it`s not it`s East . It seems to be another poster who does not have access to these models. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And here is the disaster at 850 ( these are the actual 850s ) I will not explain wet bulbing to you , you will get lost 

See the actual 0 line with LP at the BM  ? Good 

 

Here`s one better / here`s the UKMET

 

 

Here is your torch weekend  per the EPS

Christmas Eve 42 / 33

Christmas Day  40 / 32

Side note Rain changing to Snow on Christmas day with an inch or so is a lot better than the 60 and rain you have been putting out. 

I put my Christmas forecast out on Saturday when the models had 60 and rain.  You wouldn`t understand how we even came this far unless a model shows you. 

 

 

Now the 3 of you really hurt this board, it`s nothing personal but not one of could ever figure out how we took a forecast of 60 and rain to possible snow even ALONG THE COAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY. You guys troll good work and no one here makes you answer for never doing any work.

Some of you speak in such absolutes and just swing from model to model. When the GFS came out at 12z , you guys were posting how it was dry.

Then the Euro came out and you guys thought it would be 50 and rain. There is very little work done in here and you 3 keep making the same mistakes , making the board difficult to navigate.

This is constructive criticism that I hope someone addresses you 3 so you don`t drive everyone away. 

 

 

That was awesome 

[MJO812]

27 minutes ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

Let me get this straight , you actually sit here with a straight face and ask people to take your work seriously after calling for an AN November by plus 4 , and AN by December you missed the Dec 10th 4 to 6 inch snowfall that we saw and posted on for a week.

You went to tell everyone how you were Barry Bonds and that you had the hot had , but before Dec 10 came and went you busted 3x.

Then last weeks coastal that dropped 3 to 4 from CNJ out to L.I you and snowman laughed the day prior and said there was no way it would snow on the coast.

 

So by Dec 15th you were 0 for 4. Should have take the intentional pass.

 

Then you snoski and snowman all bought the SE ridge for Christmas you guys posted for days that it was going to 60 all weekend with a disaster for Christmas ? My goodness , who in here reads your stuff , it`s a collection of busts and model hugging. 

 

 

Now this is what you 3 bought for Christmas 7 days ago 

 

 

Here is what believed and have been writing about away for more than 7 days / Now I can`t explain how we knew this , you Snoski and Snowman would never be able to follow

It`s written in detail , but I will save you the trouble.

I am not sure who is telling the board that the EPS cluster is west , it`s not it`s East . It seems to be another poster who does not have access to these models. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And here is the disaster at 850 ( these are the actual 850s ) I will not explain wet bulbing to you , you will get lost 

See the actual 0 line with LP at the BM  ? Good 

 

Here`s one better / here`s the UKMET

 

 

Here is your torch weekend  per the EPS

Christmas Eve 42 / 33

Christmas Day  40 / 32

Side note Rain changing to Snow on Christmas day with an inch or so is a lot better than the 60 and rain you have been putting out. 

I put my Christmas forecast out on Saturday when the models had 60 and rain.  You wouldn`t understand how we even came this far unless a model shows you. 

 

 

Now the 3 of you really hurt this board, it`s nothing personal but not one of could ever figure out how we took a forecast of 60 and rain to possible snow even ALONG THE COAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY. You guys troll good work and no one here makes you answer for never doing any work.

Some of you speak in such absolutes and just swing from model to model. When the GFS came out at 12z , you guys were posting how it was dry.

Then the Euro came out and you guys thought it would be 50 and rain. There is very little work done in here and you 3 keep making the same mistakes , making the board difficult to navigate.

This is constructive criticism that I hope someone addresses you 3 so you don`t drive everyone away. 

 

 

Great post man

Nice to have you back

[SnoSki14]

22 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Pattern is loaded

I would be disappointed if the next two weeks didn't produce anything because I agree with you. 

Good job PB and Don. Things look great if you love snow.

[SnowGoose69]

The 18Z GFS made a whimper of a move towards the Euro for Christmas 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

The diffenrence at 500 between gfs and euro are almost laughable... it honestly wouldn’t take much for the trough to dig a bit deeper and drop our snow a bit south, it’s also going to depend where our boundary sets up, to see how close our area of low pressure develops off the coast. The gfs is an extremely week strung out piece of energy rounding the trough, plain and simple it’s a dud.. the euro is extremely strong, especially in comparison to the gfs... it holds the energy back cause of its strength, allows the trough to drop further south, and then go negative, whereas the GFS being weak results in a faster flow, and nothing....

 

my concern is the ULL... both models seem to be in relatively close agreement that the ULL will be west of ideal, bringing the energy if strong, too far west... resulting in a big storm for FAR interior... personally I’d like to see strong energy, the ULL further east, and south. 

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

The diffenrence at 500 between gfs and euro are almost laughable... it honestly wouldn’t take much for the trough to dig a bit deeper and drop our snow a bit south, it’s also going to depend where our boundary sets up, to see how close our area of low pressure develops off the coast. The gfs is an extremely week strung out piece of energy rounding the trough, plain and simple it’s a dud.. the euro is extremely strong, especially in comparison to the gfs... it holds the energy back cause of its strength, allows the trough to drop further south, and then go negative, whereas the GFS being weak results in a faster flow, and nothing....

 

my concern is the ULL... both models seem to be in relatively close agreement that the ULL will be west of ideal, bringing the energy if strong, too far west... resulting in a big storm for FAR interior... personally I’d like to see strong energy, the ULL further east, and south. 

Via a combination of factors including tendency of other model guidance at the moment I still am leaning on the weaker side compared to the Op Euro.  The problem is even a weaker more east solution isn’t likely to be a whole lot snowier for coastal people 

[redbanknjandbigbasslakepa]

1 hour ago, PB COLTS NECK NJ said:

 

Let me get this straight , you actually sit here with a straight face and ask people to take your work seriously after calling for an AN November by plus 4 , and AN by December you missed the Dec 10th 4 to 6 inch snowfall that we saw and posted on for a week.

You went to tell everyone how you were Barry Bonds and that you had the hot had , but before Dec 10 came and went you busted 3x.

Then last weeks coastal that dropped 3 to 4 from CNJ out to L.I you and snowman laughed the day prior and said there was no way it would snow on the coast.

 

So by Dec 15th you were 0 for 4. Should have take the intentional pass.

 

Then you snoski and snowman all bought the SE ridge for Christmas you guys posted for days that it was going to 60 all weekend with a disaster for Christmas ? My goodness , who in here reads your stuff , it`s a collection of busts and model hugging. 

 

 

Now this is what you 3 bought for Christmas 7 days ago 

 

 

Here is what believed and have been writing about away for more than 7 days / Now I can`t explain how we knew this , you Snoski and Snowman would never be able to follow

It`s written in detail , but I will save you the trouble.

I am not sure who is telling the board that the EPS cluster is west , it`s not it`s East . It seems to be another poster who does not have access to these models. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

And here is the disaster at 850 ( these are the actual 850s ) I will not explain wet bulbing to you , you will get lost 

See the actual 0 line with LP at the BM  ? Good 

 

Here`s one better / here`s the UKMET

 

 

Here is your torch weekend  per the EPS

Christmas Eve 42 / 33

Christmas Day  40 / 32

Side note Rain changing to Snow on Christmas day with an inch or so is a lot better than the 60 and rain you have been putting out. 

I put my Christmas forecast out on Saturday when the models had 60 and rain.  You wouldn`t understand how we even came this far unless a model shows you. 

 

 

Now the 3 of you really hurt this board, it`s nothing personal but not one of could ever figure out how we took a forecast of 60 and rain to possible snow even ALONG THE COAST ON CHRISTMAS DAY. You guys troll good work and no one here makes you answer for never doing any work.

Some of you speak in such absolutes and just swing from model to model. When the GFS came out at 12z , you guys were posting how it was dry.

Then the Euro came out and you guys thought it would be 50 and rain. There is very little work done in here and you 3 keep making the same mistakes , making the board difficult to navigate.

This is constructive criticism that I hope someone addresses you 3 so you don`t drive everyone away. 

 

 

Complete BS. I missed the one minor coastal scraper. I nailed that December would feature significant gold six or seven weeks ago before anyone. Spin the week leading up to Christmas how you wish but you blew that one. You laughed st others suggesting we’d have a moderation lasting more than a day or two and said the period between the 20-25 would be cold with snow. It’s not. I believe you even said White Christmas, not. You’ve been no better than I have, and your immediate call now leading into Christmas Day went up in smoke. 

[UlsterCountySnowZ]

7 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

Complete BS. I missed the one minor coastal scraper. I nailed that December would feature significant gold six or seven weeks ago before anyone. Spin the week leading up to Christmas how you wish but you blew that one. You laughed st others suggesting we’d have a moderation lasting more than a day or two and said the period between the 20-25 would be cold with snow. It’s not. I believe you even said White Christmas, not. You’ve been no better than I have, and your immediate call now leading into Christmas Day went up in smoke. 

Take all this crap out of the model thread... I didn’t start this thread so people had to sift thru chest pounding.. take it to banter 

[Paragon]

7 hours ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said:

Gfs is warm and wet Saturday and much of Christmas Eve. Cold bleeds in Christmas Day and cold overwhelms a few days before an apps runner snow to rain in the coastal plain later next week. 

Say what? Aren't we supposed to get a snowstorm with temps in the 20s Wednesday night into Thursday next week? Yes it's a long way out and things can change, but this is what I saw on the LR forecasts today.