LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 11 hours ago, Paragon said: I was hoping we'd have a Millenium storm repeat. Make it a day later so we get blitzed on New Years Eve- now THAT would be fun! Yeah, that would be epic. I really hope we cash in on this coming cold shot. After that I’m afraid of a coast to coast pacific flood. (Of warm air) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Gfs is warm and wet Saturday and much of Christmas Eve. Cold bleeds in Christmas Day and cold overwhelms a few days before an apps runner snow to rain in the coastal plain later next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 The 12z models are really depressing so far after showing the epic set up for next week on the 0z. Cold then cut then cold. Hopefully its just a burp on the CMC and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said: The 12z models are really depressing so far after showing the epic set up for next week on the 0z. Cold then cut then cold. Hopefully its just a burp on the CMC and GFS. Models can't even get a storm 2 days out right. That end of the month storm looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 18 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: Gfs is warm and wet Saturday and much of Christmas Eve. Cold bleeds in Christmas Day and cold overwhelms a few days before an apps runner snow to rain in the coastal plain later next week. Here is the gfs 24 hr precip from 1am xmas eve morning thru 1 am xmas morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Here is the gfs 24 hr precip from 1am xmas eve morning thru 1 am xmas morning. Your point? I think the issue here is that emotionally we wanted cold and snow (myself included) for Christmas after having such promise a few weeks ago, so there is a bias. It’s not happening now. Temps are average the next two days, very warm Saturday with rain, warm Christmas Eve with chance of showers and finally colder late Christmas Eve into Christmas Day with the front (average temps). The Christmas period is toast now, turn your attention to later next week. The problem with later next week is that the trough being pulled back further west is going to allow for cyclogenesis over the Rockies and without any help in Atlantic we snow to rain with an inland track. Need some help there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 The GFS backed down completely for the Christmas “storm”. All the hype over the historic unmodified arctic outbreak is looking to flop, now just run of the mill cold for late December/early January, then the January thaw comes when the -EPO/-WPO breakdown. Also no SSW, in fact the stratospheric PV looks to strengthen and consolidate over the pole next month as the arctic stratosphere gets colder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: Your point? I think the issue here is that emotionally we wanted cold and snow (myself included) for Christmas after having such promise a few weeks ago, so there is a bias. It’s not happening now. Temps are average the next two days, very warm Saturday with rain, warm Christmas Eve with chance of showers and finally colder late Christmas Eve into Christmas Day with the front (average temps). The Christmas period is toast now, turn your attention to later next week. The problem with later next week is that the trough being pulled back further west is going to allow for cyclogenesis over the Rockies and without any help in Atlantic we snow to rain with an inland track. Need some help there. How do you know the Xmas storm is done ? Stop your trolling. It's annoying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, snowman19 said: The GFS backed down completely for the Christmas “storm”. All the hype over the historic unmodified arctic outbreak is looking to flop, now just run of the mill cold for late December/early January, then the January thaw comes when the -EPO/-WPO breakdown. Also no SSW, in fact the stratospheric PV looks to strengthen and consolidate over the pole next month as the arctic stratosphere gets colder Are you seriously giving weight to the Gfs ? I guess you must be new here because the gfs usually does this with east coast storms in this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Are you seriously giving weight to the Gfs ? I guess you must be new here because the gfs usually does this with east coast storms in this range. You were riding the GFS yesterday like sea biscuit and last week you rode the CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 7 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: Your point? I think the issue here is that emotionally we wanted cold and snow (myself included) for Christmas after having such promise a few weeks ago, so there is a bias. It’s not happening now. Temps are average the next two days, very warm Saturday with rain, warm Christmas Eve with chance of showers and finally colder late Christmas Eve into Christmas Day with the front (average temps). The Christmas period is toast now, turn your attention to later next week. The problem with later next week is that the trough being pulled back further west is going to allow for cyclogenesis over the Rockies and without any help in Atlantic we snow to rain with an inland track. Need some help there. I think his point is you said Christmas Eve is wet on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: You were riding the GFS yesterday like sea biscuit and last week you rode the CMC You were riding the warmth for the holidays Fail Anyway back to the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowshack Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 25 minutes ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: Your point? I think the issue here is that emotionally we wanted cold and snow (myself included) for Christmas after having such promise a few weeks ago, so there is a bias. It’s not happening now. Temps are average the next two days, very warm Saturday with rain, warm Christmas Eve with chance of showers and finally colder late Christmas Eve into Christmas Day with the front (average temps). The Christmas period is toast now, turn your attention to later next week. The problem with later next week is that the trough being pulled back further west is going to allow for cyclogenesis over the Rockies and without any help in Atlantic we snow to rain with an inland track. Need some help there. Didnt someone have their hot hand burned by dismissing the possibility of a projected offshore track from coming back closer to the coast? Wouldnt it be better to leave open all possibilities at this range to prevent the other hand from similar fate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 UKIE tracks low from N Georgia and SC out to SNE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 10 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: UKIE tracks low from N Georgia and SC out to SNE Nice, for Christmas? GFS likely way to weak/east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brasiluvsnow Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 18 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: UKIE tracks low from N Georgia and SC out to SNE Billy and others am I mistaken or didn't the Ukie do pretty good with the last 2 events ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 21 minutes ago, Snowshack said: Didnt someone have their hot hand burned by dismissing the possibility of a projected offshore track from coming back closer to the coast? Wouldnt it be better to leave open all possibilities at this range to prevent the other hand from similar fate? Didn’t you know the models show exactly what’s going happen? I heard the gfs is picking lottlo numbers now. Don’t tell anyone though we should keep the jackpot in house. To me with this group and it’s a group, when the models are inland the SE ridge is killing us and when the models are offshore said ridge doesn’t exist. Going with the seasonal trend expect things to be further west then depicted at this lead time. I’m more worried about the end of next week storm cutting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 52 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The GFS backed down completely for the Christmas “storm”. All the hype over the historic unmodified arctic outbreak is looking to flop, now just run of the mill cold for late December/early January, then the January thaw comes when the -EPO/-WPO breakdown. Also no SSW, in fact the stratospheric PV looks to strengthen and consolidate over the pole next month as the arctic stratosphere gets colder The ensembles show the complete opposite and keep the cold and active storm track thru New Years. It’s amazing how when a model shows a horrible run for snow you can’t wait to post about it . It’s like clockwork... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 The 12z ECMWF is looking good aloft. Jet max pointed right at the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: The 12z ECMWF is looking good aloft. Jet max pointed right at the Northeast. Look better from start, initial wave off Washington state dove much further south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, Neblizzard said: The ensembles show the complete opposite and keep the cold and active storm track thru New Years. It’s amazing how when a model shows a horrible run for snow you can’t wait to post on here. It’s like clockwork... The models have completely backed down on the strength of the arctic outbreak. This is going to be run of the mill cold now. It’s no longer historic. Never said it wasn’t going to be cold, stop it. You only show up to hype snow threats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Textbook Miller B on the Euro. Why people continue to take the GFS seriously when it's this inconsistent is beyond ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Fresh Arctic air does not come in until the Sun/Mon system passes. La Nina + seasonal trends for the bulkier-than-forecast SE/Atlantic ridge will win out this round along the coast/city proper, imo, not that a quick change to snow is impossible Sun/Mon as the system departs. The threat late next week is the one to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 The surface low develops over NNJ then tracks over SNE and up into the Gulf of Maine. It's a great setup for a major snowstorm for interior NY, PA and Western New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Euro is all rain for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, snowman19 said: Euro is all rain for our area It is but it' a step towards a snowstorm for Christmas and if this works out this would be a SECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, snowman19 said: Euro is all rain for our area That's not entirely accurate. Portions of Orange County and the Western Hudson Valley see some snow this run and there would likely be a mix zone in there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 It is easy to get emotionally caught up in OP runs, but would instead look at general 500 mb trends, ensembles and overall pattern evolution this far out. We are five days away still. We look to be right on the borderline temp wise on Christmas. What is the latest MJO forecast for next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: It is but it' a step towards a snowstorm for Christmas and if this works out this would be a SECS The upper level dynamics are there but the storm develops overhead. Most of the precip we get is from the initial overrunning when temperatures are still warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 hour ago, redbanknjandbigbasslakepa said: Your point? I think the issue here is that emotionally we wanted cold and snow (myself included) for Christmas after having such promise a few weeks ago, so there is a bias. It’s not happening now. Temps are average the next two days, very warm Saturday with rain, warm Christmas Eve with chance of showers and finally colder late Christmas Eve into Christmas Day with the front (average temps). The Christmas period is toast now, turn your attention to later next week. The problem with later next week is that the trough being pulled back further west is going to allow for cyclogenesis over the Rockies and without any help in Atlantic we snow to rain with an inland track. Need some help there. My point is that this is the model thread. The model you claimed showed a wet Sunday is in fact 100% dry. Just sticking to the facts, dont really care about the wishing for a white christmas in this thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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