SnowGoose69 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 The only thing we can really take right now is the earlier cold push is becoming likely to verify. As for the snow on Christmas I still would want to see another 48 hours of this setup pushing further east because the last several years the tendency has been these waves and the subsequent fronts they ride on end up west of where they are projected 4-6 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 Interior gets 2-3 inches Friday into sat on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2017 Share Posted December 19, 2017 White Xmas miracle the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 19, 2017 Author Share Posted December 19, 2017 Merry Xmas on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Gfs is still ots Ggem is an interior snowstorm and snow to rain for the coast. Trended way east from past runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs is still ots Ggem is an interior snowstorm and snow to rain for the coast. Trended way east from past runs. Wtf is happening... the GGEM has the first wave.. our cutter... as the main snowstorm Xmas Eve... and nothing following... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 5 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Wtf is happening... the GGEM has the first wave.. our cutter... as the main snowstorm Xmas Eve... and nothing following... Yep very weird Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Wtf is happening... the GGEM has the first wave.. our cutter... as the main snowstorm Xmas Eve... and nothing following... LOL, lays down 8-12 for the LHV and 2-4 for NYC...WAA ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 1 minute ago, HeinzGuy said: LOL, lays down 8-12 for the LHV and 2-4 for NYC...WAA ftl Interior new england gets crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 Still tho.. it completely looses the 1st wave and consolidated energy.. no rain whatsoever or cutter on ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Gfs and cmc look great for a snowstorm at the end of the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs and cmc look great for a snowstorm at the end of the month There's always going to be the risk of too much ridging if the AO stays positive. With so much low level cold, I could see us getting several icing events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs and cmc look great for a snowstorm at the end of the month Seems like the December 28th-30th timeframe is coming into focus as a period to really watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 16 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: There's always going to be the risk of too much ridging if the AO stays positive. With so much low level cold, I could see us getting several icing events. Quite possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 28 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Gfs and cmc look great for a snowstorm at the end of the month I was hoping we'd have a Millenium storm repeat. Make it a day later so we get blitzed on New Years Eve- now THAT would be fun! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Just now, Paragon said: I was hoping we'd have a Millenium storm repeat. Make it a day later so we get blitzed on New Years Eve- now THAT would be fun! Dec 2000 was good 12 inches here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 2 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Dec 2000 was good 12 inches here Remember it was supposed to change to rain and never did. It was sort of like a super version of the Dec 9 snowstorm we just had, with rain in eastern Suffolk and eastern New England. Low crossed over central Suffolk and yet it was snow just west of that track, so we stayed all snow. Super Clipper turned into Coastal, I think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 FWIW jma is a major snowstorm too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 0z GFS looks really good in the medium to long range. Front crosses early on Christmas with a wave offshore just missing (probably the same storm the Euro is hinting at), then an overrunning event moves in from the Southern Plains with a 1040mb high to the north. Gets extremely cold before New Year's, too, with -25C 850s in the region. Should see readings below 0F in the colder areas of suburbia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 Euro even further west, weaker also...the energy around the trough was the difference, not nearly as strong, trough never dropped far enough south either....still 3-6 well inland...I’ll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 5 hours ago, Snow88 said: Gfs and cmc look great for a snowstorm at the end of the month The Euro has a big snowstorm also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 EPS is colder than the op for Xmas storm The op also shifted east and it wouldn't take much for everyone to be in play. Right now , inland areas have the best chance of accumulating snow. The Euro also shows a big snowstorm at the end of the run just like the other models show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 OKX's take on Sun-Mon from their morning AFD: Global models still disagree with the storm track for Sunday night into Monday morning, with GFS taking low pressure from the Mid- Atlantic to fairly well SE of the 40N/70W benchmark. The GFS ensemble mean however is approx 50 miles SE of the benchmark, so it wouldn`t be surprising to see the deterministic GFS eventually trend back towards the benchmark in future model runs. ECMWF, its ensemble mean, and GEM track the storm within the benchmark. Will lean towards this solution, but not as NW/warm. Still, rain would be likely for coastal areas, and a wintry mix would occur inland with the potential for an all-snow event for the far NW suburbs. PCPN would taper off Monday morning with isolated/scattered rain and snow showers near the coast and snow showers elsewhere during the rest of the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 12 minutes ago, weathermedic said: OKX's take on Sun-Mon from their morning AFD: Global models still disagree with the storm track for Sunday night into Monday morning, with GFS taking low pressure from the Mid- Atlantic to fairly well SE of the 40N/70W benchmark. The GFS ensemble mean however is approx 50 miles SE of the benchmark, so it wouldn`t be surprising to see the deterministic GFS eventually trend back towards the benchmark in future model runs. ECMWF, its ensemble mean, and GEM track the storm within the benchmark. Will lean towards this solution, but not as NW/warm. Still, rain would be likely for coastal areas, and a wintry mix would occur inland with the potential for an all-snow event for the far NW suburbs. PCPN would taper off Monday morning with isolated/scattered rain and snow showers near the coast and snow showers elsewhere during the rest of the day. With the benchmark track like they'e saying and a fresh arctic airmass that wouldn' be rain in my opinion. Especially if most of the precipitation comes in at night time. That' just from my personal experience. We can taint a little but it would turn into snow especially if the low is strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathermedic Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 4 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: With the benchmark track like they'e saying and a fresh arctic airmass that wouldn' be rain in my opinion. Especially if most of the precipitation comes in at night time. That' just from my personal experience. We can taint a little but it would turn into snow especially if the low is strengthening. I agree. Guess they are playing it careful this far out for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 47 minutes ago, weathermedic said: OKX's take on Sun-Mon from their morning AFD: Global models still disagree with the storm track for Sunday night into Monday morning, with GFS taking low pressure from the Mid- Atlantic to fairly well SE of the 40N/70W benchmark. The GFS ensemble mean however is approx 50 miles SE of the benchmark, so it wouldn`t be surprising to see the deterministic GFS eventually trend back towards the benchmark in future model runs. ECMWF, its ensemble mean, and GEM track the storm within the benchmark. Will lean towards this solution, but not as NW/warm. Still, rain would be likely for coastal areas, and a wintry mix would occur inland with the potential for an all-snow event for the far NW suburbs. PCPN would taper off Monday morning with isolated/scattered rain and snow showers near the coast and snow showers elsewhere during the rest of the day. Well if Upton thinks a strengthening storm is running the benchmark with arctic air flooding in, they might as well pull the trigger and call for a snowstorm Sunday night into Monday. I don’t why they are dancing around it and mixing words if they believe that’s what is going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rogue Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 28 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Well if Upton thinks a strengthening storm is running the benchmark with arctic air flooding in, they might as well pull the trigger and call for a snowstorm Sunday night into Monday. I don’t why they are dancing around it and mixing words if they believe that’s what is going to happen Let's see: 1) Because there is still plenty of doubt in the outcome. 2) It's 96 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 Looks like the 12z GFS has nothing for Xmas. Rain or snow. Or even a storm anywhere remotely close in the Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 20, 2017 Author Share Posted December 20, 2017 Gfs has NO energy after the cutter, GGEM... has no cutter and major snowstorm for interior Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 20, 2017 Share Posted December 20, 2017 8 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Looks like the 12z GFS has nothing for Xmas. Rain or snow. Or even a storm anywhere remotely close in the Atlantic. Typical gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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