UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 On 12/23/2017 at 2:03 AM, Juliancolton said: Expand The map was posted as a joke... I’m not sure why it was taken serious.. my headline was even posted was even a joke lol..... for starters I know better than post a snow map for 9 days out and be serious about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Nice snowstorm on the CMC next weekend CMC is also focusing on the early wave like the GFS is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 GFS looks awesome What a moisture feed into the gulf Snow breaks out early Friday morning on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 GFS is insane. It is still snowing Sunday morning. Started Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 On 12/23/2017 at 3:48 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: The map was posted as a joke... I’m not sure why it was taken serious.. my headline was even posted was even a joke lol..... for starters I know better than post a snow map for 9 days out and be serious about Expand Yeah, I know your post was all in good fun. I only thought it was some good info for the Kuchera apologists I've been seeing lately. Just because it's a slightly more advanced algorithm than straight 10:1 doesn't mean it's better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Wow at the gfs, long duration very cold storm with temps in the teens throughout, high ratio powdery stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 0z GFS seems to have two surface lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 GFS snows for 48 hours and has 1-2 feet for the NYC area with close to 20 for D.C CMC has 6-12 for the NYC area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Storm looks very different this run but still gives our area good snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Ukie at 144 looks like the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 On 12/23/2017 at 4:33 AM, SnoSki14 said: Wow at the gfs, long duration very cold storm with temps in the teens throughout, high ratio powdery stuff. Expand That's not Millenium storm repeat, that's more like Jan 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 On 12/23/2017 at 4:28 AM, Juliancolton said: Yeah, I know your post was all in good fun. I only thought it was some good info for the Kuchera apologists I've been seeing lately. Just because it's a slightly more advanced algorithm than straight 10:1 doesn't mean it's better. Expand I wonder if at some point we'll just be using automated sensors to measure snowfall using some advanced algorithm. Everything else is automated so why not lol. Just measure liquid equivalence and use some math to figure out what the proper ratio should be and then come up with a snowfall total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 On 12/23/2017 at 4:58 AM, Snow88 said: Hell no Looks like a friday morning start according to the 3 models Expand Haven't seen a storm last this long in quite a while. I don't think that even Jan 1996 or Jan 2016 lasted this long lol. And usually these things start earlier than expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 On 12/23/2017 at 5:00 AM, Paragon said: Haven't seen a storm last thing long in quite a while. I don't think that even Jan 1996 or Jan 2016 lasted this long lol. Expand I think 96 and 2016 lasted about 30 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 Single digits when the ball drops. Really good agreement on a snowstorm from all the major models over a week out, which is very rare. How it'll actually transpire varies considerably. I see something closer to PD 2 than Jan 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 On 12/23/2017 at 4:58 AM, Snow88 said: Hell no Looks like a friday morning start according to the 3 models Expand Let this come in Friday morning and end by Saturday afternoon/evening and that would be fine by me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 On 12/23/2017 at 5:01 AM, Snow88 said: I think 96 and 2016 lasted about 30 hours Expand Yeah remember 2016 had that death band at the end that just wouldn't quit and just snowed itself out over our area, I think that's what got JFK over 30" lol. 3.0" LE too.....amazing! Straight line of 30" + snows from Allentown to Morris Plains to Jackson Heights to JFK lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 On 12/23/2017 at 5:02 AM, Paragon said: Yeah remember 2016 had that death band at the end that just wouldn't quit and just snowed itself out over our area, I think that's what got JFK over 30" lol. 3.0" LE too.....amazing! Expand I had 30 inches It was insane On 12/23/2017 at 5:03 AM, Paragon said: If you had to pick one that you would want to see a repeat of, would it be Jan 96, PD2 or Jan 2016? Expand Boxing Day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 GEFS with a huge overrunning to a coastal signal in a good spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 On 12/23/2017 at 4:58 AM, Snow88 said: Hell no Looks like a friday morning start according to the 3 models Expand That's a great sign with the arrival time moving up... storm more likely to happen. If it kept getting pushed back i would of been a red flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 On 12/23/2017 at 5:07 AM, Snow88 said: GEFS with a huge overrunning to a coastal signal in a good spot. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 On 12/23/2017 at 5:19 AM, Nibor said: Expand Hour 186, did you see how close the isobars are, must be really windy and rapidly strengthening. I hope that happens in time for us and not too far north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 23, 2017 Author Share Posted December 23, 2017 Gefs paint a snowy pic for HV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nibor Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 On 12/23/2017 at 5:32 AM, Paragon said: Hour 186, did you see how close the isobars are, must be really windy and rapidly strengthening. I hope that happens in time for us and not too far north. Expand I'm cautiously excited. The model agreement is superb. Give it a few days to let the globals and the ensembles do their wavering and see. The set up is on point. 6-7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 On 12/23/2017 at 5:00 AM, Paragon said: Haven't seen a storm last this long in quite a while. I don't think that even Jan 1996 or Jan 2016 lasted this long lol. And usually these things start earlier than expected. Expand Usually at this range larger storm systems are way over modeled in terms of duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 On 12/23/2017 at 5:44 AM, Nibor said: I'm cautiously excited. The model agreement is superb. Give it a few days to let the globals and the ensembles do their wavering and see. The set up is on point. 6-7 days out. Expand Yes I love it and this is where all the fun begins. I think tonight was the first night of the fun. At least half the fun is tracking these things for a week and the other half is the actual event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 On 12/23/2017 at 5:45 AM, JetsPens87 said: Usually at this range larger storm systems are way over modeled in terms of duration. Expand I've noticed this too, Boxing Day is actually a great example. It was supposed to be a 36 hour storm and was just about 24 hours. The only exceptions I can think of right now were Jan 1996 and Jan 2016 which were 30 hour storms. But I can't think of any 48+ hour storms unless you go way back......March 1888 and that Feb 1920 72 hour storm with 4.5" of LE (20" of snow/sleet mix) that really intrigues me. Any reason why these extreme duration storms don't seem to be as common as they used to be, JP? March 1888 and Feb 1920 must be extremely rare patterns that they haven't repeated like that even though it's been nearly 100 years in the case of the latter one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 On 12/23/2017 at 5:44 AM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Gefs paint a snowy pic for HV Expand wow 10 out of 20 are rainy here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 On 12/23/2017 at 5:49 AM, Paragon said: I've noticed this too, Boxing Day is actually a great example. It was supposed to be a 36 hour storm and was just about 24 hours. The only exceptions I can think of right now were Jan 1996 and Jan 2016 which were 30 hour storms. But I can't think of any 48+ hour storms unless you go way back......March 1888 and that Feb 1920 72 hour storm with 4.5" of LE (20" of snow/sleet mix) that really intrigues me. Any reason why these extreme duration storms don't seem to be as common as they used to be, JP? March 1888 and Feb 1920 must be extremely rare patterns that they haven't repeated like that even though it's been nearly 100 years in the case of the latter one. Expand In recent history at least I can point to a lack of significant impactful Atlantic blocking upstream to slow storms down. For the better part of this timeframe we have been using the term “progressive flow “ way more than I would like to be. As to why models seem to depict this scenario only to lose it as we close the lead time... that would seemingly require some more discussion. I think models struggle particularly in progressive flows and transitionary pattern periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 23, 2017 Share Posted December 23, 2017 On 12/23/2017 at 5:54 AM, JetsPens87 said: In recent history at least I can point to a lack of significant impactful Atlantic blocking upstream to slow storms down. For the better part of this timeframe we have been using the term “progressive flow “ way more than I would like to be. As to why models seem to depict this scenario only to lose it as we close the lead time... that would seemingly require some more discussion. I think models struggle particularly in progressive flows and transitionary pattern periods. Expand Also, if memory serves aren't the very long duration storms closer to spring time? Maybe NAO blocks are more common at that time? I just remembered that March 1956 was another example of a very long duration storm (during a La Nina too.) March 2001 if it would have happened in our area would have been another great example. As it turned out we still got a moderate to heavy snowfall (Suffolk County) on the second day of the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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