Paragon Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 6:49 AM, Rjay said: Coastal crusher on the Euro over a week from now. (Warning criteria for most of the subforum.) Pattern looks ripe for a decent shot at either overturning snows or a coastal in the 28th-30th time frame. Expand It's going to screw up New Years Eve but good lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 2:03 PM, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Catskills get crushed. I think the system impacts a very large area Expand Yeah general idea seems to be the jackpot zone will be Catskills to Poconos and we will all do well. Nevermind these off OP runs in between that get people down, like at Ens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Sobering run of the gfs, kills a lot of Christmas snow hope and goes with a southern slider. It'll change plenty of times but it does show you what could go wrong in a seemingly favorable pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 4:59 PM, donsutherland1 said: Given the forecast sharpening of the PNA ridge on the ensembles (excluding the 12z GEFS, which is not finished running), I believe something closer to the coast is more likely than this solution. Still, as there's a lot of time between now and the forecast event, one can't fully dismiss the 12z GFS solution. Expand Don , I ignore anything that refuses to take a center off OBX to Nova Scotia . When you connect the heights from the Baja to Beijing what do think the height falls will look like on the E/C. Also look at that block in the Arctic / It is a Classic E/C snowstorm set up and probably a major one. Too many in here will hang on OP run to OP run and miss what this is , 7 days ago Christmas was 60 with rain. I think by the time we get within 3 days everyone will see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 5:10 PM, SnoSki14 said: Sobering run of the gfs, kills a lot of Christmas snow hope and goes with a southern slider. It'll change plenty of times but it does show you what could go wrong in a seemingly favorable pattern. Expand was one model run geez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Why is it always the same people who have to remind everyone of bad model runs or pattern changes? Entirely predictable to see those kinds of posts from certain people and to not see posts from them about positive runs or patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 4:59 PM, donsutherland1 said: Given the forecast sharpening of the PNA ridge on the ensembles (excluding the 12z GEFS, which is not finished running), I believe something closer to the coast is more likely than this solution. Still, as there's a lot of time between now and the forecast event, one can't fully dismiss the 12z GFS solution. Expand Don more of a danger of mixing at the coast than suppression? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 5:25 PM, bluewave said: It's right where you want the GFS at this point since its bias with snowstorms is too far south and east at these ranges. Expand Much rather see this than a lakes cutter. At least that idea seems to be gone now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 5:25 PM, bluewave said: It's right where you want the GFS at this point since its bias with snowstorms is too far south and east at these ranges. Expand and has been all season long Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 5:19 PM, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Don , I ignore anything that refuses to take a center off OBX to Nova Scotia . When you connect the heights from the Baja to Beijing what do think the height falls will look like on the E/C. Also look at that block in the Arctic / It is a Classic E/C snowstorm set up and probably a major one. Too many in here will hang on OP run to OP run and miss what this is , 7 days ago Christmas was 60 with rain. I think by the time we get within 3 days everyone will see it. Expand I dont know what the issue is because this seems to happen with EVERY storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 5:19 PM, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Don , I ignore anything that refuses to take a center off OBX to Nova Scotia . When you connect the heights from the Baja to Beijing what do think the height falls will look like on the E/C. Also look at that block in the Arctic / It is a Classic E/C snowstorm set up and probably a major one. Too many in here will hang on OP run to OP run and miss what this is , 7 days ago Christmas was 60 with rain. I think by the time we get within 3 days everyone will see it. Expand I agree with you, PB. I think the pattern is evolving toward one that will be conducive for a moderate to possibly significant snowstorm toward the end of December. I'm discounting both the 12z GFS and the 12z GEFS (lack of continuity with earlier runs and inconsistent with outcomes more typical with the evolving pattern). I continue to like the idea of a sharper PNA ridge and sharper trough in the East. We'll see where things stand in coming days, but right now I'm not dissuaded from my thinking by this morning's GFS/GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Look at the pattern, strong arctic high pressure pressing down, a tropospheric polar vortex in southern Canada, this is a suppression/southern slider threat, not a cutter or hugger threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 5:35 PM, Paragon said: I dont know what the issue is because this seems to happen with EVERY storm. Expand My hypothesis is that there may be a bias correction in the GFS in the middle part of its range that tends to promote discontinuity between its longer-range ideas and then its shorter-range ideas (the seeming phenomenon where storms are "lost" in the mid-range only to be brought back later). I'm not sure about that, but it is a hypothesis. It will be interesting to see if the ECMWF reasonably maintains its continuity with its 0z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 5:32 PM, Paragon said: Don more of a danger of mixing at the coast than suppression? Expand Perhaps. But enough very cold air will be nearby to be tapped, so a primarily snow event from at least central NJ northward seems more likely than a mainly liquid event. The difference between the 6z and 12z run of the GFS is very large. That kind of dramatic departure often suggests a run that is an outlier. I'm looking forward to the 12z ECMWF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 5:39 PM, snowman19 said: Look at the pattern, strong arctic high pressure pressing down, a tropospheric polar vortex in southern Canada, this is a suppression/southern slider threat, not a cutter or hugger threat Expand The TPV is weak and elongated. You have an epo block migrating into the western NAO region. If this doesn't scream big potential to you then idk what will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 5:39 PM, snowman19 said: Look at the pattern, strong arctic high pressure pressing down, a tropospheric polar vortex in southern Canada, this is a suppression/southern slider threat, not a cutter or hugger threat Expand Still nada zlich nothing for the board on Christmas ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB COLTS NECK NJ Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 5:47 PM, Rjay said: The TPV is weak and elongated. You have an epo block migrating into the western NAO region. If this doesn't scream big potential to you then idk what will. Expand Agree, the set up is great. The " potential" is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 5:19 PM, PB COLTS NECK NJ said: Don , I ignore anything that refuses to take a center off OBX to Nova Scotia . When you connect the heights from the Baja to Beijing what do think the height falls will look like on the E/C. Also look at that block in the Arctic / It is a Classic E/C snowstorm set up and probably a major one. Too many in here will hang on OP run to OP run and miss what this is , 7 days ago Christmas was 60 with rain. I think by the time we get within 3 days everyone will see it. Expand Agree with suppression concerns over OTS, Regardless of what surface plots may show this far out if you start with the 500 and work your way down you can see there is no room for anything to cut in that pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 6:19 PM, JetsPens87 said: Agree with suppression concerns over OTS, Regardless of what surface plots may show this far out if you start with the 500 and work your way down you can see there is no room for anything to cut in that pattern. Expand This is definitely a pattern that can produce something nice. Whenever you have higher heights over NE Canada and a 50-50 low with a deepening trough over the Midwest/TN Valley, we can put some major points on the board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Euro shows a blizzard next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 12Z Euro has 2-3" QPF w/ that storm...turns to rain in the middle but mostly snow as modeled in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 6:58 PM, purduewx80 said: 12Z Euro has 2-3" QPF w/ that storm...turns to rain in the middle but mostly snow as modeled in the city. Expand Beast storm verbatim. It phases to the point where NYC would see more snow than Boston. It keeps getting pushed back but that’s because the EURO is keying on the second piece of energy. The storm signal is still there and that’s what matters at this juncture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 HECS storm.. especially just N+W of I-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 6:58 PM, purduewx80 said: 12Z Euro has 2-3" QPF w/ that storm...turns to rain in the middle but mostly snow as modeled in the city. Expand 20 + here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 7:05 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: HECS storm.. especially just N+W of I-95 Expand Looks like Feb 2010 retrogading storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 This is our storm. We could still squeeze out an inch or two for the Christmas storm, but again, the upper level pattern doesn't support a system coming up the coast, rather out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Temps are a bit dicey with this track for the East end of LI which explains the lower totals. It will change a 1000 times however between now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 22, 2017 Author Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 7:10 PM, NJwx85 said: Temps are a bit dicey with this track for the East end of LI which explains the lower totals. It will change a 1000 times however between now and then. Expand That Kuchera map tho lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 On 12/22/2017 at 7:14 PM, UlsterCountySnowZ said: That Kuchera map tho lmao Expand I purposely posted a map that doesn't include anything but the New Years storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted December 22, 2017 Share Posted December 22, 2017 Surface low tracks from Ocean City, MD to ACY to Suffolk County. It's the perfect track for 95% of the sub forum and revenge for the recent big storms that favored the East end of Long Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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