UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 As usual it’s that time of year to start looking at 384hr GFS maps, so let’s keep it classy and out of the normal threads Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Euro has rain changing to snow for the whole area as the front passes by next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Euro has rain changing to snow for the whole area as the front passes by next week.GEFS mean is cold/dry...warm/wet for the most part. Perfect pattern could be the ultimate tease. One need only glance at the GEFS to see how we can fail given the favorable teleconnections. Prefer to wait on the EPS and something more short/medium range anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: 30 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Euro has rain changing to snow for the whole area as the front passes by next week. GEFS mean is cold/dry...warm/wet for the most part. Perfect pattern could be the ultimate tease. One need only glance at the GEFS to see how we can fail given the favorable teleconnections. Prefer to wait on the EPS and something more short/medium range anyway. Storms will not show up in the long range. A lot of vorts running around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 Euro has about an inch of snow for NYC midweek when the front sees through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 3 hours ago, Snow88 said: Euro has about an inch of snow for NYC midweek when the front sees through. How many times has that worked out? By the time its cold enough, it's dry. Let's see how this goes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 The vort coming out of Canada has a more N-S orientation due to the more meridional orientation of the western ridge. The energy is also more consolidated into one vortmax instead of a broad trough. Should have room to dig; this might be an interesting run. Definitely looks like a potent shortwave coming out of Canada either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: The vort coming out of Canada has a more N-S orientation due to the more meridional orientation of the western ridge. The energy is also more consolidated into one vortmax instead of a broad trough. Should have room to dig; this might be an interesting run. Definitely looks like a potent shortwave coming out of Canada either way. Baby cutter on gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 9 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: Baby cutter on gfs Not going to happen with the confluence up north. H5 looks great on the Euro and gfs next weekend. Going to be interesting to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 9 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Not going to happen with the confluence up north. H5 looks great on the Euro and gfs next weekend. Going to be interesting to see what happens. There's a ton of potential with this pattern, the gfs is a loaded gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted December 1, 2017 Share Posted December 1, 2017 53 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: There's a ton of potential with this pattern, the gfs is a loaded gun. How about that blizzard towards the end of the run? Not getting excited at this far out juncture, but fun to look at nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Gfs keeps insisting on a snowstorm near the 15th. Gfs gearing up for another storm at 384 Very active run CMC has several inches of snow for our area by 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 2, 2017 Author Share Posted December 2, 2017 I’m not entirely convinced the back end of our frontal boundary doesn’t produce at least light snow... there’s ALOT of energy associated, riding our trof, I’d feel better if I was in parts of NE, but we have a neutral trof, rotating negative over the area, a lot of instability... wouldn’t be shocked to see some decent squalls set up. also something to note, there’s a lot of thing that could change, we’re still 6 days out... our frontal boundary could stall a bit further east, our ULL could be positioned more favorable etc im still interested in thurs-Sat basically lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 This has the potential to become an incredibly cold and active 30 day period. The 6th - 31st plus on the guidance will drop the hammer and probably become active. What you are you seeing at 500 in terms of the locked off strength and position of the anomalies is something not modeled that often. Pattern before storms / which means they are going to come but the bigger event really will be the possible duration of what is being forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 2, 2017 Author Share Posted December 2, 2017 12z GFS supports the idea of snow with energy associated as our boundary front pulls away, and we get trof rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 2, 2017 Author Share Posted December 2, 2017 We’re so close to that fantasy run a few days ago, after our front pushes through, having an immediate follow storm, this is a very nice look 6 days out at 500mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 37 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: We’re so close to that fantasy run a few days ago, after our front pushes through, having an immediate follow storm, this is a very nice look 6 days out at 500mb Gefs likes this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 2, 2017 Author Share Posted December 2, 2017 Might not get us there entirely but big changes on euro coming for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 2, 2017 Author Share Posted December 2, 2017 Storm on euro especially mid Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 euro looking real good next friday/saturday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 yep, and like the euro had at 12z on wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 2, 2017 Author Share Posted December 2, 2017 Solid 3-6 for all...good first step to picking up the energy along that trof sweeping down from Midwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said: Major storm on euro especially mid Atlantic 6 minutes ago, SnowBlitzkrieg said: I would assume going by the Euro and if it winds up being correct snow would begin on Friday and continue into at least Saturday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Hopefully the EPS is just as exciting as the OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Hopefully the EPS is just as exciting as the OP. The EPS showing that would definitely give more weight to it. The Euro op last winter kept showing phantom snowstorms galore in the long range, which never materialized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowBlitzkrieg Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The EPS showing that would definitely give more weight to it. The Euro op last winter kept showing phantom snowstorms galore in the long range, which never materialized yes, i agree, not likely that a 160hr euro OP run happens exactly as it shows, but this is the model thread and we're talking about what the models are showing. that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 2, 2017 Author Share Posted December 2, 2017 9 minutes ago, SnowBlitzkrieg said: yes, i agree, not likely that a 160hr euro OP run happens exactly as it shows, but this is the model thread and we're talking about what the models are showing. that's all. As I’ve been posting, gonna be hard pressed to enter this pattern, with a strike out, a lot of opportunities from different waves Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted December 2, 2017 Author Share Posted December 2, 2017 EPS is a generally I-95 2-3” swath less inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 2, 2017 Share Posted December 2, 2017 Just now, UlsterCountySnowZ said: EPS is a generally I-95 2-3” swath less inland Yea, EPS is not as close to the coast with the wave as the op, still a long way to go for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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