TellicoWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Ground white and snowing moderately here in Tellico Plains. 1/4-1/2" on grassy/elevated surfaces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 5” now at Jackson Miss NWS office. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastKnox Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Dry air still in East Knoxville - dew points near 20, hope to see it saturate soon. Times like these are when I wish I had a drone outfitted with weather instruments to get some soundings for the first couple of thousand feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I just created a winter observations thread. Looking forward to seeing some snow totals for folks in the mountains and foothills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 It looks like the 2nd of 3 clippers on Thursday this week has trended further south and strengthened on the GFS I do wonder how much moisture it would have access to if it were another 100 miles south though. A little later into the 12z GFS on the 3rd clipper/coastal low (phasing?) there seems to be more activity as well. A pretty interesting look for those in NE-TN, SE-KY, and SW-VA, So far though there doesn't seem to be anything for the rest of the forum in terms of winter threats that really stands out. Even further out a week from now, we have a storm affecting the entire forum area. It looks like rain for now but we could certainly use some rain! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 14 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: It looks like the 2nd of 3 clippers on Thursday this week has trended further south and strengthened on the GFS I do wonder how much moisture it would have access to if it were another 100 miles south though. A little later into the 12z GFS on the 3rd clipper/coastal low (phasing?) there seems to be more activity as well. A pretty interesting look for those in NE-TN, SE-KY, and SW-VA, So far though there doesn't seem to be anything for the rest of the forum that really stands out. Even further out a week from now, we have a storm affecting the entire forum area. It looks like rain for now but we could certainly use some rain! @hour 102 that is a definite partial phase on the 12z GFS...albeit weak. That is from a progressive bias model as well. Was on the 12z Euro yesterday(not my catch). Was also on 6z. Interesting for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 11, 2017 Author Share Posted December 11, 2017 Tuesday or Thursday may turn out light snow for the Upper Plateau, TRI and Virginia. Rest of the forum: PVA is too far north. If Friday surprises it'd probably be the Carolina side per pattern recognition and history. Hard to gin up in time this side. Winter lovers may want to hibernate next week; but, don't sleep too long. Week(s) of Christmas and/or New Years could be colder than normal again. Timing could be a real challenge with stubborn AN heights in the Southeast. However on the plus side, Canada is actually forecast to be cold. We are really missing a -NAO to break the tie but we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 11, 2017 Share Posted December 11, 2017 MRX issued SPS for Northern Plateau counties, and OHX issued WWA for their portion of the Northern Plateau for the coming clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 15, 2017 Author Share Posted December 15, 2017 Hello 12Z Friday Euro! Can I get some severe weather Wednesday for an early Christmas present? Oh yeah that Black Ice Christmas thing... That ain't cool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted December 21, 2017 Author Share Posted December 21, 2017 Christmas Eve the GFS joins the Euro with some snow showers for favored areas, Upper Plateau, northeast Tenn, southwest Virginia, Kentucky, and of course the mountains. Even in the favored areas Christmas climo is weak; so, anything is a big win. Wishing you all the best! NAM is not on board yet, but beyond 60 hours I would not expect it for such a light event. PVA is north, but for above areas lingering moisture and orographics could do it. KY/VA have the PVA. Note that 2010 was a once-a-generation event right on Christmas; previous was 1969 for CHA. My favorite is still 2004 Deep South Texas Christmas Eve. It was like their event a couple weeks ago. Christmas Eve forecast above still looks reasonable. Updated Saturday 12/23.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 Hi-res NAM has snow streaks passing through the area tomorrow evening. May pick up 1/2 inch or so if you get under one. Nice to see snow on the ground Christmas morning if you get lucky. More accumulation above 2500-3000 feet in typically favored areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 I'm convinced outside of the of the mountain peaks a white Christmas is going to be a roll of the dice with odds going up as you go northwest. A few lucky spots may see an inch on the ground or more if the snow squalls align over you. Other places may only see a few flurries falling or perhaps nothing. I'm not sure this event could be considered northwest flow considering it comes through from the west but the effects should be similar. At this point we can only hope the actual system overperforms and the conditions are colder than expected for a better event as the models are now fully locked in. I have mentioned twice before the possibility of a 2nd wave on the 26th but so far the NAVGEM only supports it over our area with other models not having it all and other being north of the forum area. I wish you all plenty of snow and a very merry Christmas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 60% chance of rain/snow here tonight a .5-1” of accumulation for TRI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 That was the AM’a forecast...radar looks pretty benign right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 SPS here as well for 1/2 inch. Should see snow showers develop behind the cold front. I'll lean more towards a general dusting unless you get caught under a nice heavy shower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted December 24, 2017 Share Posted December 24, 2017 45 minutes ago, John1122 said: SPS here as well for 1/2 inch. Should see snow showers develop behind the cold front. I'll lean more towards a general dusting unless you get caught under a nice heavy shower. Yeah it looked like two bands may come through for you all tonight. One through Nashville, and another larger piece that comes across the plateau and into Knoxville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Highway2Heel Posted December 25, 2017 Share Posted December 25, 2017 Sleeting in Columbia, TN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted December 26, 2017 Share Posted December 26, 2017 On 12/24/2017 at 7:18 PM, Highway2Heel said: Sleeting in Columbia, TN... Highway, great to see you posting. Please keep it going! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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