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December 2017 Temps, Chaos, Winter Mix, Snow, Christmas


nrgjeff

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It looks like the 2nd of 3 clippers on Thursday this week has trended further south and strengthened on the GFS I do wonder how much moisture it would have access to if it were another 100 miles south though. A little later into the 12z GFS on the 3rd clipper/coastal low (phasing?)  there seems to be more activity as well. A pretty interesting look for those in NE-TN, SE-KY, and SW-VA, So far though there doesn't seem to be anything for the rest of the forum in terms of winter threats that really stands out. Even further out a week from now, we have a storm affecting the entire forum area. It looks like rain for now but we could certainly use some rain!

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14 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said:

It looks like the 2nd of 3 clippers on Thursday this week has trended further south and strengthened on the GFS I do wonder how much moisture it would have access to if it were another 100 miles south though. A little later into the 12z GFS on the 3rd clipper/coastal low (phasing?)  there seems to be more activity as well. A pretty interesting look for those in NE-TN, SE-KY, and SW-VA, So far though there doesn't seem to be anything for the rest of the forum that really stands out. Even further out a week from now, we have a storm affecting the entire forum area. It looks like rain for now but we could certainly use some rain!

@hour 102 that is a definite partial phase on the 12z GFS...albeit weak.  That is from a progressive bias model as well.  Was on the 12z Euro yesterday(not my catch).  Was also on 6z.  Interesting for sure.

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Tuesday or Thursday may turn out light snow for the Upper Plateau, TRI and Virginia. Rest of the forum: PVA is too far north. If Friday surprises it'd probably be the Carolina side per pattern recognition and history. Hard to gin up in time this side. 

Winter lovers may want to hibernate next week; but, don't sleep too long. Week(s) of Christmas and/or New Years could be colder than normal again. Timing could be a real challenge with stubborn AN heights in the Southeast. However on the plus side, Canada is actually forecast to be cold. We are really missing a -NAO to break the tie but we'll see.

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Christmas Eve the GFS joins the Euro with some snow showers for favored areas, Upper Plateau, northeast Tenn, southwest Virginia, Kentucky, and of course the mountains. Even in the favored areas Christmas climo is weak; so, anything is a big win. Wishing you all the best!

NAM is not on board yet, but beyond 60 hours I would not expect it for such a light event. PVA is north, but for above areas lingering moisture and orographics could do it. KY/VA have the PVA.

Note that 2010 was a once-a-generation event right on Christmas; previous was 1969 for CHA. My favorite is still 2004 Deep South Texas Christmas Eve. It was like their event a couple weeks ago.

Christmas Eve forecast above still looks reasonable. Updated Saturday 12/23..

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I'm convinced outside of the of the mountain peaks a white Christmas is going to be a roll of the dice with odds going up as you go northwest. A few lucky spots may see an inch on the ground or more if the snow squalls align over you. Other places may only see a few flurries falling or perhaps nothing. I'm not sure this event could be considered northwest flow considering it comes through from the west but the effects should be similar. At this point we can only hope the actual system overperforms and the conditions are colder than expected for a better event as the models are now fully locked in. I have mentioned twice before the possibility of a 2nd wave on the 26th but so far the NAVGEM only supports it over our area with other models not having it all and other being north of the forum area. I wish you all plenty of snow and a very merry Christmas! 

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45 minutes ago, John1122 said:

SPS here as well for 1/2 inch. Should see snow showers develop behind the cold front. I'll lean more towards a general dusting unless you get caught under a nice heavy shower.

Yeah it looked like two bands may come through for you all tonight.  One through Nashville, and another larger piece that comes across the plateau and into Knoxville.

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