ShawnEastTN Posted December 7, 2017 Share Posted December 7, 2017 SREF Plumes Chatt mean is half an inch, and so is Knoxville. Chatts 3 big dogs are at or above 3", and Knox has 2 big dogs at or above 3", just as an interesting side note... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chattownsnow Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 each run of the HRRR has been pushing precip closer and closer to our neck of the woods. I don't think it will get close enough for more than some snow showers and/or rain showers but it is better than I thought we would end up with from this. Same goes for the RAP as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 As soon as I let a system go here it comes again. Will see on the 0z runs if the current trend continues. The HRRR has remained encouraging. To add to the conversation I must say I appreciate, as others have the analysis and views that carver, jeff, john, jax, and others have contributed to the forum. They truly are the life blood of the forum and I'm glad you guys are here. Without you all there wouldn't even be a Tennessee Valley forum! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 As soon as I let a system go here it comes again. Will see on the 0z runs if the current trend continues. The HRRR has remained encouraging. To add to the conversation I must say I appreciate, as others have the analysis and views that carver, jeff, john, jax, and others have contributed to the forum. They truly are the life blood of the forum and I'm glad you guys are here. Without you all there wouldn't even be a Tennessee Valley forum!The 0z NAM finally stopped the northwest trend for that model at least. It’s just hard for me to fathom all of that Gulf moisture hitting a brick wall. If the flow would just back up ever so slightly this could be a major storm. But major fluctuations this close aren’t going to happen. HRRR is encouraging to at least see some flakes tomorrow. I think that’s all we can hope for at this point. I’m rooting for our friends along the Gulf Coast. Rare setup for them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 From the 15z to the 21z the SREF went from 1/4” with 1 over 2 inches to 3/4” with 6 over 2”. That’s a nice jump. This is for Knoxville . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lugnuts Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Hello Gents..Been a long time..Anyways just looked at that run of the Nam..Is my eyes deceiving me or did it lose the clipper..lol..Was hoping for some flakes but now??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 42 minutes ago, 1234snow said: The 0z NAM finally stopped the northwest trend for that model at least. It’s just hard for me to fathom all of that Gulf moisture hitting a brick wall. If the flow would just back up ever so slightly this could be a major storm. But major fluctuations this close aren’t going to happen. HRRR is encouraging to at least see some flakes tomorrow. I think that’s all we can hope for at this point. I’m rooting for our friends along the Gulf Coast. Rare setup for them. Agreed, to see snowfall projected in Brownsville, Houston, and Baton Rouge of all places is surprising especially in early December and hopefully it pans out for them. Monitoring the projected radar on the RAP and HRRR like a hawk, I have noticed the RAP drifting northwest gradually hour by hour. The HRRR has for the most part has stayed in place throwing some snow showers at us on the fringe of the system. The NAM as you have mentioned has stopped drifting northwest pulling back some. What I'm really looking for is how sharp the cut off for precipitation will be. My expectations are in check (hopefully) IF all goes well a few of us may escape with a dusting. I for better or worse will stay up for the the globals. Following this I'm looking forward to seeing how the clipper plays out. The 12z EURO showed something worth a look imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Wow, how's that for a last minute shift NW. Now even the GFS is looking earily similar to the HRRR with some snow showing up in eastern sections of the valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 4 minutes ago, Jed33 said: Wow, how's that for a last minute shift NW. Now even the GFS is looking earily similar to the HRRR with some snow showing up in eastern sections of the valley. Counties bordering the mountains or east of 75, May be in for a nice little surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 The latest HRRR, RAP, and GFS runs continue the Northwest trend! It looks as though the precipitation shield extends just far enough to reach the great valley. We may pull something off after all. The clipper remains to be a no show on the GFS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Still thinking 1-2 inches east of Knox/I-81 with increasing totals east and up in elevation may very well be possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Never bet against a more north and west reality when it comes to a system from the gulf. Time and time again the precip field will come north and west within 48-72 hours. Frustrating if you are in the southern rain/snow line, but a reason for optimism if you are on the northwest fringe. Good luck to our mountains friends, perhaps a few in northeast TN will score a little white stuff too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Totals on the 03z HRRR. This is the best HRRR run yet. Hour 18 and still snowing lightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 00z GEFS looks good for eastern valley. Watching returns across N. Al to see where the band is setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Euro is very dry for the 0z run with little precipitation over the blue ridge very similar to the 12z run. Of course the high res models paint another story. The HRRR remains encouraging in its locked solution. We have however reached the point of nowcasting. Goodnight everyone only time will tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 06z GFS ups totals here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Have some snow flurries outside right now! Very small fine flakes, but hey, I'll take it. I wake up to see the GFS is now the western outlier, followed by the HRRR. The NAM/Euro aren't as enthusiastic. Almost seems like the GFS has overcorrected. GFS indicates that for the eastern valley, this evening into tonight is the time to look for any snow. Still, it seems way too aggressive. Maybe not, but I've seen it do this kind of stuff before. We will have to watch the radar today and see where the banding sets up. It's almost like it wants to develop a deformation band, and puts the eastern valley on the western side of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 I'll say this, normally if we woke up to see the radar the way it currently looks back to the SW, in N MS, we'd be smiling from ear to ear, so the HRRR and GFS may be on to something. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 03z SREF mean increased to almost 2" for TYS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 03z SREF mean increased to almost 2" for TYSWas about to say this. Big adjustment from yesterday . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 HRRR is beautiful: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 According to the radar it is already snowing above me, unfortunately it is Virga. Hopefully this isn't a recurring theme throughout the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 12z NAM increased totals east of I75 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 09z SREF increased as well for Tys, mean is around 2.5" now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 13z HRRR has three areas of steadier snows modeled. The first is already underway for southeast TN and should spread into northeast TN later this morning. A second area of enhanced precip is anticipated later this afternoon and a third shows overspreading the area after dark. Might be hard to accumulate in areas where it remains light to moderate with an on and off nature to the snow, but areas that see heavier bursts will see snow covering just about everything pretty quickly. Good luck to everyone from southeast TN and east of I-75 in TN. Congrats to our brothers and sisters in western NC. This looks textbook for them to enjoy a really SNOWY day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Winter Storm Warning now for Cherokee and Clay Co in NC. 2+” already. Up to 6 P.O.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 20 dBZ returns above me but all virga. It always amazes me how much colder it feels when you are getting virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 Considering the height of the radar scan and snow appearing on radar, It would seem the snowfall is gradually breaking through the dry layer. In theory as snow continues to fall it should be depicted closer and closer to the radar in Morristown with lowering height of the scan leading towards it. On a side note the HRRR remains encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 20 dBZ returns above me but all virga. It always amazes me how much colder it feels when you are getting virga.I’m in Knoxville but the clouds are looking Thick and are starting to lower. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ShawnEastTN Posted December 8, 2017 Share Posted December 8, 2017 10 minutes ago, BlunderStorm said: Considering the height of the radar scan and snow appearing on radar, It would seem the snowfall is gradually breaking through the dry layer. In theory as snow continues to fall it should be depicted closer and closer to the radar in Morristown with lowering height of the scan leading towards it. On a side note the HRRR remains encouraging. Great Point! Here you can see the phenomenon at 3 regional radars that are on the edge of the precip field, Tupelo, Hytop, and Morristown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.