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December Banter String


George BM

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not too disappointed over the models. it was 60 degrees just yesterday. let's lock in the cold for a bit, get a a miss or two, and then one of those systems will hopefully become trackable. farmer forecasting here, but i do think having a pattern in place helps. so we miss on tonight's system, we get closer for the next one, and then maybe the one after is the one. still don't really think a big dog is likely. we just had one in 2016 (which to me might have topped or was at least on par with 96), a sizable one in 2014 before the switch, and then the 09/10 siberia pattern. that's actually pretty good for this area, so playing the odds i'd think it's better to look for a nice moderate event.

in other news, kirk cousins might be trying out for his next team today, and tomorrow's nba schedule is like whoa. 

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Just now, H2O said:

That gin with some lime and seltzer is really good. Such an interesting flavor

Greenhat? The distillery tour is a pretty fun weekend afternoon diversion. When we went, you got to sample some of their more seasonal gins after the tour. And I'm happy my neighborhood bar keeps it as their happy hour gin. On the rocks with a squeeze of lime is my favorite way to drink it. 

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I think the outside of 5-day stuff has gotten a bit much in terms of emotional swings from day-to-day.

It used to be like this for all but the most textbook HECS-type situations:

10-days- All grain of salt, no minimum numbers in mind at all, no investment

Within 7-days- fair confidence in a pattern (colder or warmer than average)

Within 5-days- starting to hone in on which shortwaves to focus in on

Within 4-days- able to say at about 50% chance of whether an event is happening

Within 3-days- able to distinguish a between small, medium, large event

Within 2-days- first guess at accumulation in a large range

Within 1-day- accumulation map, smaller range

I think it reads like, now, everything is shifted up a category, so there's more up-and-down swings of the subforum's mood outside of 5-days. If we treated today as the start of seriously looking at the shortwaves period, then it gives us more space ahead of us to narrow down and less investment in past shown solutions. When I touched down in SF on Friday night, glancing over the thread from after the Euro run backwards, I noticed that people were not that bothered that the Euro was blowing up the New Year's Eve wave instead of the Friday one because it was all snow anyway. But not being able to hone in on which wave may amplify up the coast-- even if both solutions were great-- was a flag that we were not close to final solution yet. And I think that has led to a lot of the gnashing of teeth runs we've had since Friday night. 

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