Vice-Regent Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 8 hours ago, H2O said: Weenie tingle is caused by too much lazy slackass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 It never feels good when we’re hugging the GGEM/CMC/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, nj2va said: It never feels good when we’re hugging the GGEM/CMC/ Don't worry, we got the Euro. For now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 It’s 8 days away. Only thing that should be focus is on if there is a storm modeled and do all the globals have it. We have that. All the possibilities good and bad will be on the table, but having a storm to track is job 1. CMC shows , like other OP runs the last few days it’s still ok to dream. I like where we are. Active pattern and at least the chance to dream on a big one. Fine by me. Ain’t nothing locking in 8 days ahead of time. Never has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 8 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: It’s 8 days away. Only thing that should be focus is on if there is a storm modeled and do all the globals have it. We have that. All the possibilities good and bad will be on the table, but having a storm to track is job 1. CMC shows , like other OP runs the last few days it’s still ok to dream. I like where we are. Active pattern and at least the chance to dream on a big one. Fine by me. Ain’t nothing locking in 8 days ahead of time. Never has. We're all hoping that each storm is the storm that all models lock on 8 days plus. Definitely not happening any time soon. That'd basically ruin this hobby for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I seriously don’t get complaining about no final solutions at day 8 on weather models. No one expects that in hurricane season. Best you get there is a sense of the possibility. That’s what we have here. I am an unabashed hecs hunter in the winter. I am delighted to have the chance however remote on any 8-10 day prog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Heh. Based on eps and the 6z gfs I stand by my 3 am thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Heh. Based on eps and the 6z gfs I stand by my 3 am thought. Don't know if you read the post I just put up in the other thread but my confidence is really growing that we have a memorable few weeks ahead of us. Memories bad so maybe I am wrong, but I don't recall ever seeing such a favorable combination of setup and such long duration ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 I read it - dead on. I just don’t get the drive by sniping that gets pissy that 8-10 day ops are not exactly right. I don’t understand that expectation. My default for winter remains “ is there a storm “ and “does the pattern potentially support a large storm” with regard to long range modeling. We’ve got that here - a storm of some type showing up across the major models and huge support for same in the ensembles. That’s a hand worth playing. Whether we end up cashing in or not, we are at least in the game... and, selfishly, if it is missing our area in nine days but snowing four feet a few hours away, given it is a holiday weekend, that screams chase. game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 What a snow hole . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Why are you posting that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 after reading the LR thread AFTER 1 run of the GFS that flipped back to a snow run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 and that gif was right before the best rant in any movie......ever Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: Why are you posting that? 2 guesses and the first one is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 4 minutes ago, H2O said: after reading the LR thread AFTER 1 run of the GFS that flipped back to a snow run Hell. It’s not so much the gfs that should have people interested as the EPS and CMC. The signal is there for something really fun. Despite people being sad over OP runs and complaining they are not accurate at 9 days out or posting the Euro control in banter for ****ssake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: Hell. It’s not so much the gfs that should have people interested as the EPS and CMC. The signal is there for something really fun. Despite people being sad over OP runs or posting the Euro control in banter for ****ssake. i agree. Pattern says there's a chance so now its waiting to see if the models can focus on a specific threat and keep it. Its just typical for some here to have pitchforks and condemn a model after one run but then sing praises and hoist up on shoulders a la Rudy and carry it off the field after it goes nuts with snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Why are you posting that?This is banter. I posted it cuz I thought it was funny. Guess not.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 15 minutes ago, Philadelphia Snow said: What a snow hole . That's the control Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 23 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I read it - dead on. I just don’t get the drive by sniping that gets pissy that 8-10 day ops are not exactly right. I don’t understand that expectation. My default for winter remains “ is there a storm “ and “does the pattern potentially support a large storm” with regard to long range modeling. We’ve got that here - a storm of some type showing up across the major models and huge support for same in the ensembles. That’s a hand worth playing. Whether we end up cashing in or not, we are at least in the game... and, selfishly, if it is missing our area in nine days but snowing four feet a few hours away, given it is a holiday weekend, that screams chase. game on. For years after I first started following models I lived and died by the op runs. So I get it. But I had enough sense not to trash the discussion thread up with the continuous, 'Wow", 'it sucks', '24" for me', endless snow maps etc... What makes it even more annoying is the fact that anything on the ops at this point in time are basically trash after 5 days if not sooner. He!!, the ensembles have seen what I consider to be significant shifts only 5 days out. And is it any wonder? All you have to do is look at the vort maps to understand why they are having such difficulty. 3 streams of energy at most times. 4 if you want to count the stream running around the pv. There is energy running everywhere. And to expect the models to have a handle on that just a few days out let alone in the extended is just plain folly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 If we're gonna get runs like the 6z GFS this far out, you guys might want to pin the digital snow thread. Only makes sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 how about you show some self control and knock off the weenie posts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 23 minutes ago, H2O said: and that gif was right before the best rant in any movie......ever Absolutely- classic rant. He had a similar rant in the regular Vacation movie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 My post regarding pinning the digital snow thread was said in a joking kind of way. This is the banter thread after all. I understand though. Posting about 4' of snow 9 days out is as useless as computer models can get. I did have an analysis on the EPS, but that got washed away by the 6z GFS run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 13 hours ago, PhineasC said: Need to align the phase disruptor with the antimatter flux capacitor in the warp core. Beam me up Scotty. There is no intelligent life here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 Oh those kooky models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 For the record, I don't mind snow mean maps or even ermygawd snow maps for fantasy storms. But the trolling of the Euro control when the signal is there for something significant seems pointless. We get it, this could be nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 My return to Leesburg deserves a white Christmas a blizzard and a 6" sleet storm. I'm not greedy it can rain to but before Christmas mmmk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 2 hours ago, Cobalt said: I'm so glad I stayed up for this. These weird storms that the models create are pretty amazing. I would sign up for this. 12-24" and then a couple more inches of ice for good luck. lol 9 minutes ago, mappy said: @Cobalt most of your posts from the last two hours were hidden due to you acting like a weenie. dial it back, son, otherwise I will highly recommend you be 5-posted. Thank you. He probably should go to bed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 me this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 21, 2017 Share Posted December 21, 2017 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: My return to Leesburg deserves a white Christmas a blizzard and a 6" sleet storm. I'm not greedy it can rain to but before Christmas mmmk Where's my 70s on Xmas????????!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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