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December Banter String


George BM

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It’s 8 days away. Only thing that should be focus is on if there is a storm modeled and do all the globals have it. We have that. All the possibilities good and bad will be on the table, but having a storm to track is job 1. CMC shows , like other OP runs the last few days it’s still ok to dream. I like where we are. Active pattern and at least the chance to dream on a big one. Fine by me. Ain’t nothing locking in 8 days ahead of time. Never has.

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8 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

It’s 8 days away. Only thing that should be focus is on if there is a storm modeled and do all the globals have it. We have that. All the possibilities good and bad will be on the table, but having a storm to track is job 1. CMC shows , like other OP runs the last few days it’s still ok to dream. I like where we are. Active pattern and at least the chance to dream on a big one. Fine by me. Ain’t nothing locking in 8 days ahead of time. Never has.

We're all hoping that each storm is the storm that all models lock on 8 days plus. Definitely not happening any time soon. That'd basically ruin this hobby for most of us

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I seriously don’t get complaining about no final solutions at day 8 on weather models. No one expects that in hurricane season. Best you get there is a sense of the possibility. That’s what we have here. I am an unabashed hecs hunter in the winter. I am delighted to have the chance however remote on any 8-10 day prog. 

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3 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Heh. Based on eps and the 6z gfs I stand by my 3 am thought.

Don't know if you read the post I just put up in the other thread but my confidence is really growing that we have a memorable few weeks ahead of us. Memories bad so maybe I am wrong, but I don't recall ever seeing such a favorable combination of setup and such long duration ever.

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I read it - dead on. I just don’t get the drive by sniping that gets pissy that 8-10 day ops are not exactly right. I don’t understand that expectation. My default for winter remains “ is there a storm “ and “does the pattern potentially support a large storm” with regard to long range modeling. We’ve got that here - a storm of some type showing up across the major models and huge support for same in the ensembles. That’s a hand worth playing. Whether we end up cashing in or not, we are at least in the game...

 

and, selfishly, if it is missing our area in nine days but snowing four feet a few hours away, given it is a holiday weekend, that screams chase.

 

game on.

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4 minutes ago, H2O said:

after reading the LR thread AFTER 1 run of the GFS that flipped back to a snow run

clark-drinkig-eggnog.gif?fit=480,270

Hell. It’s not so much the gfs that should have people interested as the EPS and CMC. The signal is there for something really fun. Despite people being sad over OP runs and complaining they are not accurate at 9 days out or posting the Euro control in banter for ****ssake.

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1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

Hell. It’s not so much the gfs that should have people interested as the EPS and CMC. The signal is there for something really fun. Despite people being sad over OP runs or posting the Euro control in banter for ****ssake.

i agree.  Pattern says there's a chance so now its waiting to see if the models can focus on a specific threat and keep it.  Its just typical for some here to have pitchforks and condemn a model after one run but then sing praises and hoist up on shoulders a la Rudy and carry it off the field after it goes nuts with snow again.

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23 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I read it - dead on. I just don’t get the drive by sniping that gets pissy that 8-10 day ops are not exactly right. I don’t understand that expectation. My default for winter remains “ is there a storm “ and “does the pattern potentially support a large storm” with regard to long range modeling. We’ve got that here - a storm of some type showing up across the major models and huge support for same in the ensembles. That’s a hand worth playing. Whether we end up cashing in or not, we are at least in the game...

 

and, selfishly, if it is missing our area in nine days but snowing four feet a few hours away, given it is a holiday weekend, that screams chase.

 

game on.

For years after I first started following models I lived and died by the op runs. So I get it. But I had enough sense not to trash the discussion thread up with the continuous, 'Wow", 'it sucks', '24" for me', endless snow maps etc... What makes it even more annoying is the fact that anything on the ops at this point in time are basically trash after 5 days if not sooner. He!!, the ensembles have seen what I consider to be significant shifts only 5 days out. And is it any wonder? All you have to do is look at the vort maps to understand why they are having such difficulty. 3 streams of energy at most times. 4 if you want to count the stream running around the pv. There is energy running everywhere. And to expect the models to have a handle on that just a few days out let alone in the extended is just plain folly.

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My post regarding pinning the digital snow thread was said in a joking kind of way. This is the banter thread after all. I understand though. Posting about 4' of snow 9 days out is as useless as computer models can get. I did have an analysis on the EPS, but that got washed away by the 6z GFS run

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2 hours ago, Cobalt said:

I'm so glad I stayed up for this. These weird storms that the models create are pretty amazing. I would sign up for this. 12-24" and then a couple more inches of ice for good luck. lol

 

9 minutes ago, mappy said:

@Cobalt most of your posts from the last two hours were hidden due to you acting like a weenie. dial it back, son, otherwise I will highly recommend you be 5-posted. 

Thank you. 

He probably should go to bed.

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