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December Banter String


George BM

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2 minutes ago, eurojosh said:

While there is a unique level of disappointment to waking up expecting snow, peeking out the window, and finding it as brown as the day before, in the end, I'd say today acquitted itself really well for December 9th.

This. Solid day.

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13 minutes ago, eurojosh said:

While there is a unique level of disappointment to waking up expecting snow, peeking out the window, and finding it as brown as the day before, in the end, I'd say today acquitted itself really well for December 9th.

The thing about that that rubbed me the wrong way was we were never supposed to get good snow going until after sunrise. The NAM was the only model that brought things in hot before 12z. The globals all showed not much going on until 12z. The really light amounts on the globals through 12z didn't verify but that didn't change the meat of the forecast. 

Also, rates were never predicted to be heavy for extended periods. All guidance showed precip falling over a 12 hour period.  When you spread .25-.50 over 12 hours you get pretty much exactly what happened today. Ebbs and flows but never hot and heavy for hours on end. 

I'm not sure what everyone was expecting but the euro/ukie/gfs combo is pretty much what happened. The nam and hrrr suck people in every single storm and it's silly. I'll buy the nam if the globals agree. Never the other way around. 

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2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

 

I'm not sure what everyone was expecting but the euro/ukie/gfs combo is pretty much what happened. The nam and hrrr suck people in every single storm and it's silly. I'll buy the nam if the globals agree. Never the other way around. 

I think the GFS had a 12z or earlier start for most of its Friday runs, up until the 0z. But point taken re HRRRumph.

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17 minutes ago, eurojosh said:

I think the GFS had a 12z or earlier start for most of its Friday runs, up until the 0z. But point taken re HRRRumph.

You're right. It did. I went back through the runs. It was showing .1-.2 through 12z. That's the part that all models got wrong. Not just the light precip here overnight but the heavier stuff to the SE that didn't verify well at all. There was a fairly large and not well modeled lull overnight where things got really disorganized. Gfs picked up on it at the last minute. My guess is the really heavy rain in NC robbed some energy during low development off the SE coast. I've seen that before with other storms where front running precip is either weaker or nonexistent. There was a period last night where radar didn't resemble any model. 

Luckily the snow part went pretty well today. Models did a good job with that part. 

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

The thing about that that rubbed me the wrong way was we were never supposed to get good snow going until after sunrise. The NAM was the only model that brought things in hot before 12z. The globals all showed not much going on until 12z. The really light amounts on the globals through 12z didn't verify but that didn't change the meat of the forecast. 

Also, rates were never predicted to be heavy for extended periods. All guidance showed precip falling over a 12 hour period.  When you spread .25-.50 over 12 hours you get pretty much exactly what happened today. Ebbs and flows but never hot and heavy for hours on end. 

I'm not sure what everyone was expecting but the euro/ukie/gfs combo is pretty much what happened. The nam and hrrr suck people in every single storm and it's silly. I'll buy the nam if the globals agree. Never the other way around. 

The 12Z GFS was also pretty anemic with its precipitation with teh .25 inch line well away from DC and you.  The HRRR was bad at forecasting the banding that got you in the morning but was really good with the banding that got me this evening.  Below is the GFS.  It certainly didn't forecast teh banding that got you and Damascus and as it came out, the radar echoes weren't very impressive. Less than an hour later they broke out big time.  The other question is when do you not put the heaviest band north and west of the city? 

low_GFS.png

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2 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

You're right. It did. I went back through the runs. It was showing .1-.2 through 12z. That's the part that all models got wrong. Not just the light precip here overnight but the heavier stuff to the SE that didn't verify well at all. There was a fairly large and not well modeled lull overnight where things got really disorganized. Gfs picked up on it at the last minute. My guess is the really heavy rain in NC robbed some energy during low development off the SE coast. I've seen that before with other storms where front running precip is either weaker or nonexistent. There was a period last night where radar didn't resemble any model. 

Luckily the snow part went pretty well today. Models did a good job with that part. 

This is what I believe occurred. I was in the area that ended up completely dry last night, which was not picked up on any of the guidance that I saw. I could tell looking at the radar before I went to bed it likely wasn't going to go as forecast here. OTOH I think places to my SE closer to the coast over performed last night, at least based on the forecasted snow amounts. There were widespread reports of 5-7" in southern DE when I checked early this morning.

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