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December Banter String

George BM

By George BM,
in Mid Atlantic

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
8 hours ago, StormchaserChuck said:

I really wish you guys would realize my posts are all heart

What does that even mean?  And whatever your posts are intended to be the problem is your erratic behavior has made them useless. You flip so drastically from contradictory idea to idea that each post carries no weight anymore. You could totally change your entire outlook in 6 hours. Yes evidence changes and over time we must adapt our expectations but anything based on such little conviction that it changes multiple times with every model run lacks true validity.  You also offer contradictory opinions without much clear rational impirocal evidence to support it. It's fine to be contrarian but if you don't validate it with evidence there is no reason for anyone to take it seriously. 

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

What does that even mean?  And whatever your posts are intended to be the problem is your erratic behavior has made them useless. You flip so drastically from contradictory idea to idea that each post carries no weight anymore. You could totally change your entire outlook in 6 hours. Yes evidence changes and over time we must adapt our expectations but anything based on such little conviction that it changes multiple times with every model run lacks true validity.  You also offer contradictory opinions without much clear rational impirocal evidence to support it. It's fine to be contrarian but if you don't validate it with evidence there is no reason for anyone to take it seriously. 

I *think* what he means is that he is not trolling, which he has been accused of. But yeah I agree with you. Pretty much what I said in my reply, although very much distilled down lol.

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gymengineer

gymengineer

Posted
Posted

Battle scars from three decades dictate: Why downplay an above average snowfall period regardless of what’s going on in Boston, lol?

It’s not like January 2005 was an easy month to experience down here either. And for years, people from SNE would mistakenly bring up 04/05 as a universally desirable outcome.

14/15 I’d take any day over 04/05. 

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Bob Chill

Bob Chill

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Battle scars from three decades dictate: Why downplay an above average snowfall period regardless of what’s going on in Boston, lol?

It’s not like January 2005 was an easy month to experience down here either. And for years, people from SNE would mistakenly bring up 04/05 as a universally desirable outcome.

14/15 I’d take any day over 04/05. 

I wasn't downplaying 14/15. It was a great winter but a slow start. I was just pointing out how cruel it was before the switch flipped. The north misses went on for weeks and we were getting teased until 3 days out at times. We were miserable in here for a while. By mid March nobody cared anymore. If Dec features a similar slow start and big totals up north we will be miserable again. 

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George BM

George BM

Posted
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Posted
56 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

This is actually pretty believable. The gfs is picking up on the mysterious moco-hoco deathband phenomenon 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_neus_14.png

Since this shows the average precip over the past 6 hours the precip is actually already out of the region by the time the air is cold enough for wintery precip. 12z Wed shows average accumulated precip per hour from 6z to 12z while 12z temp profiles show the temp profiles at 12z. So what is shown is a bit of back end snow which isn't really there because the precip is already well east at the time that the temp profiles would support that snow..........It's an algorithm issue and a bit of a nuissance especially in these situations.

Hopefully I didn't make that sound too confusing. 

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MillvilleWx

MillvilleWx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Jebman said:

Dont look now but point and click is saying 60 degrees for Day 8 in Woodbridge. I think it is going to take some time for this cold air to get into the Mid Atlantic. We are going to learn a lot about PATIENCE this month, a metric ton.

Hey Jeb, I think you might be mistaken. This Tuesday it has you at 60, but you're chilly for Day 8 my friend into the 40's on P+C :)

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Jeb, you are suggesting patience by us but you posted the same thing twice!   Lol

LMAO

 

 

5 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Hey Jeb, I think you might be mistaken. This Tuesday it has you at 60, but you're chilly for Day 8 my friend into the 40's on P+C :)

Thanks! :wub: We are about to enter one heck of an EPIC pattern!!

I am stocking up on massive amounts of coffee - I wont sleep much, I'll be tracking storms well into February 2018.

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

For Cape and any others interested, there is a snowy owl that has been sighted for the past week at Eastern Neck. Reports say it has been seen on several days as you enter the island, and then yesterday it was sighted at the end of the Marsh Overlook trail behind the visitors center.

Oh man, Mr. Map and Mini-Map would be in heaven if they saw one of those. 

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gymengineer

gymengineer

Posted
Posted
9 hours ago, Bob Chill said:

I wasn't downplaying 14/15. It was a great winter but a slow start. I was just pointing out how cruel it was before the switch flipped. The north misses went on for weeks and we were getting teased until 3 days out at times. We were miserable in here for a while. By mid March nobody cared anymore. If Dec features a similar slow start and big totals up north we will be miserable again. 

Gotcha. I guess for me, the early January clipper was enough “in the bank” to last awhile, and then there was the sloppy 2” clipper and the 2.5” on 1/26 that did cover the roads and get a snow day. I personally don’t remember January 2015 as bad at all—it was a decent winter month here. 

1/05 felt worse because we busted on our part of the Boston blizzard the-day-of (not 48-hr lead time). But now I understand that the tracking part was what was dismal for 1/15.

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psuhoffman

psuhoffman

Posted
Posted
15 hours ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I *think* what he means is that he is not trolling, which he has been accused of. But yeah I agree with you. Pretty much what I said in my reply, although very much distilled down lol.

I don't know. I hope he is trolling because if he isn't then he has serious problems.  So a troll says they aren't trolling?  That is less then convincing to me.  The regularity that he flip flips from one extreme to the other and makes absolutely crazy unfounded predictions is hard to believe as genuine. And lately he is making the comments against the grain. After a bad run he says it looks great. After a good run he says it's awful. And his reasoning has been vague or sometimes well worded BS. Lots of big words that mean absolutely nothing. Again perhaps he isn't trolling but that's not good either. 

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