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December Banter String


George BM

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  On 12/22/2017 at 7:37 PM, mappy said:

 

but you won? no snow... 

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 leesburg 04 said :

Taking bets on who is the first to call this one run of the GFS a trend.....or....says there have been hints all along that this solution was on the table. :)

and I said someone in the mid-long range would say

how about "this is another solution".

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  On 12/22/2017 at 4:25 PM, nw baltimore wx said:

I like the 12z run of the gfs for late next week more than any other run so far.  I just feel that if we are going to be "missed" in a model run a week before the potential event, south and east is good.

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  On 12/22/2017 at 5:19 PM, frd said:

HM, the pattern 

 

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Wth??  HM can't have an original thought?

Even a blond squirrel... 

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  On 12/22/2017 at 9:11 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Calculating ratios isn't really about surface temps, you'd have to look aloft to see how temps/moisture are. You want to see a sufficiently cold and moist DGZ (dendritic growth zone) with good lift. 

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Yep. Some of the fluffiest and 'western' type snow I've ever seen here in my 50+ years fell on 1/29/14. Picked up 5.1 inches of snow on 0.11, a 46-1 ratio! Other CO-OPs in area were in the 50+ to 1 range! Course the high and low for the day was 16.2/2.5.......

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  On 12/22/2017 at 11:13 PM, Bob Chill said:

It's a giant pile of sleet. They get straight up sleeted on. Maybe that's how Brownsville Tx got its name. From lots of sleet being dumped there. 

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My site in Texas would be straight up pi**ed if they got what the GFS was dishing out. They picked up 4" a few weeks ago with an arctic front and and serious isentropic upglide. They average a 0.5" a year haha. They were shoveling snow with garden spades. 

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  On 12/22/2017 at 9:35 PM, wxdude64 said:

Yep. Some of the fluffiest and 'western' type snow I've ever seen here in my 50+ years fell on 1/29/14. Picked up 5.1 inches of snow on 0.11, a 46-1 ratio! Other CO-OPs in area were in the 50+ to 1 range! Course the high and low for the day was 16.2/2.5.......

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When I lived in CO I used to call the avalanche center recorded line every single day. I didn't think twice about this back then because ratios wasnt something i thought much about but when they would do a storm disco they would include ratios because it was important for avalanche conditions. 10 or 12:1 would get tagged as "low ratio high water content events". 15-20:1 was standard ratio. And over 20:1 was considered prime "blower" type of snow. When the CAIC used to use the term blower I knew sick powder conditions were imminent. 

The biggest "blower event" I ever experienced was in Monarch near Crested Butte. 40" in 24 hours the day before we had a backcountry snowcat trip planned. We looked like moles and not people coming down the chutes. I remember it like yesterday and it was 22 years ago.  40" of snow offered little resistance and just blew up and over your head. God I miss those years....

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  On 12/22/2017 at 11:34 PM, Bob Chill said:

When I lived in CO I used to call the avalanche center recorded line every single day. I didn't think twice about this back then because ratios wasnt something i thought much about but when they would do a storm disco they would include ratios because it was important for avalanche conditions. 10 or 12:1 would get tagged as "low ratio high water content events". 15-20:1 was standard ratio. And over 20:1 was considered prime "blower" type of snow. When the CAIC used to use the term blower I knew sick powder conditions were imminent. 

The biggest "blower event" I ever experienced was in Monarch near Crested Butte. 40" in 24 hours the day before we had a backcountry snowcat trip planned. We looked like moles and not people coming down the chutes. I remember it like yesterday and it was 32 years ago.  40" of snow offered little resistance and just blew up and over your head. God I miss those years....

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That part about the blower event is pretty crazy. My family and I have gone skiing in Park City for the past 4 years during Spring break, and we have yet to see snow while we were there. Last year we weren't going anywhere during Spring break, so my Dad decided to plan a trip with my brother and I on a 4 day weekend to Park City. We lucked out, as there was a snowstorm happening while we were there. 12-18" of snow overnight at the base, and it was one of the best experiences I've had skiing in a long time. Can't imagine how fun 40" of snow had to be, especially with blowing snow with high ratios.

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