December Discobs Thread

[nj2va]

Low of 0 but up to a balmy 7 now with light snow/flurries.

[wxdude64]

24 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

An ounce of perspective would do many good. 

Here is my post early Jan 2016 for Dec 2015 info-

Numbers for Dec 2015 here-

4.73 inches of precip. a T of snow on 19th

avg temp was a +11.0 from avg at 45.6 degrees and set a new record for the month.

EDIT-

I'm going to put yearly numbers here too-

Total rainfall 1/1-12/31- 49.70"

Total snowfall 1/1-12/31- 29.4"

Lowest temp -3 on 2/20

Highest temp 92 on 7/20

I looked and it was 65 on Christmas day...yuck, and 73 on the 28th!!!!

[Bob Chill]

Anybody check on pond ice thickness yesterday? Probably nothing more than 1" yet. Maybe by Sunday we'll see the magic 3.5" start showing up. I plan on taking a walk Sunday with my cordless drill and checking. Not sure if I should bring skates or not...I would hate to get there and it be "close" and not be able to resist "testing it". lol

[usedtobe]

MY low was 10.5, lowest so far this winter. 

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Anybody check on pond ice thickness yesterday? Probably nothing more than 1" yet. Maybe by Sunday we'll see the magic 3.5" start showing up. I plan on taking a walk Sunday with my cordless drill and checking. Not sure if I should bring skates or not...I would hate to get there and it be "close" and not be able to resist "testing it". lol

I guess the benefit of it being dry is if you fall through it won't be deep

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Anybody check on pond ice thickness yesterday? Probably nothing more than 1" yet. Maybe by Sunday we'll see the magic 3.5" start showing up. I plan on taking a walk Sunday with my cordless drill and checking. Not sure if I should bring skates or not...I would hate to get there and it be "close" and not be able to resist "testing it". lol

It would be nice to get an inch or two of snow on top of the frozen ponds. That should help to turn them into a glacier :). Funny thing is I have no experience with ice skating. It is not really something we can normally do around here in the natural environment.

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I guess the benefit of it being dry is if you fall through it won't be deep

After seeing the EPS/GEFS this morning it might be part of a subconscious plan on Sunday. 

[nw baltimore wx]

27 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Anybody check on pond ice thickness yesterday? Probably nothing more than 1" yet. Maybe by Sunday we'll see the magic 3.5" start showing up. I plan on taking a walk Sunday with my cordless drill and checking. Not sure if I should bring skates or not...I would hate to get there and it be "close" and not be able to resist "testing it". lol

I checked in on open ponds and also a dammed creek yesterday. Both were complete iced over but very thin. The good news is that the ice looks super smooth. I would guess Sunday at the earliest for testing. 

At what thickness do you believe it safe? I remember as a kid being on small shallow ponds in the early morning that were ridiculously thin, and once the sun hit them and temps neared freezing, the ice would still hold four or five of us, but would oscillate and wave under our weight. 

Those were the days though when three of us weighed what I am now!

[Eskimo Joe]

31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Anybody check on pond ice thickness yesterday? Probably nothing more than 1" yet. Maybe by Sunday we'll see the magic 3.5" start showing up. I plan on taking a walk Sunday with my cordless drill and checking. Not sure if I should bring skates or not...I would hate to get there and it be "close" and not be able to resist "testing it". lol

White's Ferry has suspended operations until further notice due to ice on the Potomac.

[nw baltimore wx]

So, from what I've read, depending on the pond, 4" is considered safe for skating. That got me thinking about how long it would take to get 4" of ice and found this article. In summary, once a thin sheet of ice has formed, one inch of ice will form / 15 freezing degree days. So, if we average 10 fdd, we will need another 5-6 days for four inch ice.

i bet that could be cut down considerably by finding a shaded and shallow small pond that isn't fed by running water.

http://www.outdoorcanada.ca/How_Fast_Does_Your_Lake_Make_Ice

[WVclimo]

2 hours ago, nw baltimore wx said:

I looked at recent past Decembers and was surprised to see 2015 had a +12.3 departure at bwi. All other stations were similarly as warm. I knew it was warm, but plus twelve?!?

It's a good thing I have selective memory.

 

Since the very cold February in 2015, its been outrageously warm overall.  Most months above normal, and these months were just crazy for positive departures.  Using DCA:

2017 

Jan: +6.1

Feb: +8.7

Apr: +7.0

Oct: +5.4

2016

Mar: +6.7

Sep: +5.0

2015

May: +7.2

Dec: +11.5

Those are generally in the top 3 warmest months, if not warmest ever, nearly every month of the year except summer.  I looked at HGR the other day, and cumulatively 2017 was +3.9.  This will reduce some with the cold of the last week.  For folks who look forward to cold weather, its been a rough couple of years. 

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, clskinsfan said:

It would be nice to get an inch or two of snow on top of the frozen ponds. That should help to turn them into a glacier :). Funny thing is I have no experience with ice skating. It is not really something we can normally do around here in the natural environment.

When I was a young child (back in the 70s), everyone in my family owned ice-skates.  Vivid memories of ice-skating on a distant-relative's pond.  Sizeable crowds gathered doing the same.  Perhaps time has fogged my memory as to the frequency of such events, but they did occur regularly-enough back then for my parents to have invested in skates for all us kids.  Things are very different these days.

[uncletim]

6 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

When I was a young child (back in the 70s), everyone in my family owned ice-skates.  Vivid memories of ice-skating on a distant-relative's pond.  Sizeable crowds gathered doing the same.  Perhaps time has fogged my memory as to the frequency of such events, but they did occur regularly-enough back then for my parents to have invested in skates for all us kids.  Things are very different these days.

Your memory is correct about those years. My father's office complex in Springfield had a small pond where the employees' and their families had evening skating parties. My father was the chair of the skating club and it was his responsibility to check the ice and post a flag indicating that ice was thick enough. We all had skates and there was nearly always a period of a 2-3 weeks during the winter when the flag was up. Times have changed, both in terms of climate and liability!

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

So, from what I've read, depending on the pond, 4" is considered safe for skating. That got me thinking about how long it would take to get 4" of ice and found this article. In summary, once a thin sheet of ice has formed, one inch of ice will form / 15 freezing degree days. So, if we average 10 fdd, we will need another 5-6 days for four inch ice.

i bet that could be cut down considerably by finding a shaded and shallow small pond that isn't fed by running water.

http://www.outdoorcanada.ca/How_Fast_Does_Your_Lake_Make_Ice

Honestly, 2.5" is totally safe you you are the ONLY one on the ice. Add another person and end up in the same area and it gets REALLY scary. lol. IME (and I have a lot of illegal skating experience), 3.5" is totally safe for a handful of spread out people. 4" is good for crowds. That's why most publications use that benchmark. 

The pond I use is totally shaded and pretty damn shallow. You can see bottom clearly through the ice in all but one section. I just stick to 50' from shore where it's less than 3' deep. Worst case is I slog my way back in the mud and broken ice. lol. Hasn't happened yet but I've had a more than a few propagating cracks that scared the F out of me even though there still wasn't much chance at breaking through. 

The teens that skate the pond don't measure ice thickness. They send a sucker out first and tell them to jump up and down. If he doesn't die then it's safe. 

[Jandurin]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

If he doesn't die then it's safe. 

lol

[Bob Chill]

The teens that skate the pond are used to me now. At first they HATED it when I showed up. I told them point blank I could care less what they drink and smoke. I used to charge 1 beer to keep my mouth shut but I don't drink anymore so I just say "hey man, puff puff give and nobody finds out"

[nw baltimore wx]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Honestly, 2.5" is totally safe you you are the ONLY one on the ice. Add another person and end up in the same area and it gets REALLY scary. lol. IME (and I have a lot of illegal skating experience), 3.5" is totally safe for a handful of spread out people. 4" is good for crowds. That's why most publications use that benchmark. 

The pond I use is totally shaded and pretty damn shallow. You can see bottom clearly through the ice in all but one section. I just stick to 50' from shore where it's less than 3' deep. Worst case is I slog my way back in the mud and broken ice. lol. Hasn't happened yet but I've had a more than a few propagating cracks that scared the F out of me even though there still wasn't much chance at breaking through. 

The teens that skate the pond don't measure ice thickness. They send a sucker out first and tell them to jump up and down. If he doesn't die then it's safe. 

Yeah, I totally agree with you. I just didn't want to divulge the stupidity I possess when it comes to enjoying winter cold. Good or bad, I'm one of those that plants his left foot firmly in the pond edge and taps taps taps with his right foot. If it sounds solid, I drift on the edge. Before long I'm sitting on a piece of cardboard lacing up my skates hoping the cops don't show up.

[Jandurin]

Your name, Bob Chill, name takes on an entirely new and non-winter related meaning for me.

[WEATHER53]

In the 60s we skated on Tony Tank pond almost every winter. Big skating parties with a bonfire on the shore 

[das]

1 hour ago, Tenman Johnson said:

In the 60s we skated on Tony Tank pond almost every winter. Big skating parties with a bonfire on the shore 

This will be me and the extended family/friends on the C&O Canal next weekend. Big, roaring fire, hot chocolate, we’ll shovel out a rink and spend hours on the ice skating and hanging out there in camp chairs or sitting on a blanket draped over a log we’ve drug (dragged?) out onto the ice. A glorious day, in my book. 

[nj2va]

Speaking of ponds/lakes freezing over, took a walk down by the lake today and it looks close to completely freezing over.  It struggled to get into the mid teens today.  

[Jebman]

5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Speaking of ponds/lakes freezing over, took a walk down by the lake today and it looks close to completely freezing over.  It struggled to get into the mid teens today.  

Look at all that fresh snow! You dont need plows, I'll move there and dig you all out!

[das]

Here’s the running temp tally so far in Clarksburg:

25Dec H/L: 36.6°F/27.1°F; 26Dec: 28.2°F/15.1°F; 27Dec: 23.9°F/9.8°F; 28Dec: 18.7°F/9.5°F; 29Dec: 25.5°F/14.6°F

...and, just for fun, here’s the obligatory dec pic here in VT. Covered dec so u gotta look out to the “yard” in the back. 0.8” of pixie dust snow throughout the day, high temp an hour ago was -2°F. 

[Jebman]

I feel like I just won a billion dollars and the govt told me I'd pay NO tax on it. Why, you ask?

I have a 70 PERCENT CHANCE of snow tonight!!

However, I am cautiously keeping my expectations nice and low, managing my enthusiasm, to a few tiny flurries, possibly a cartopper at best.

We'll get our big snow soon!

[Prestige Worldwide]

4 minutes ago, Jebman said:

I feel like I just won a billion dollars and the govt told me I'd pay NO tax on it. Why, you ask?

I have a 70 PERCENT CHANCE of snow tonight!!

However, I am cautiously keeping my expectations nice and low, managing my enthusiasm, to a few tiny flurries, possibly a cartopper at best.

We'll get our big snow soon!

Hope you get crushed Jebman!!!

[Jebman]

13 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

Hope you get crushed Jebman!!!

Thx, I hope you get crushed by an unpredicted band of snow!

I'll be very happy with a cartopper, or even just SnowTV. I already got 2 inches back on Dec 8.

[clskinsfan]

7 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

When I was a young child (back in the 70s), everyone in my family owned ice-skates.  Vivid memories of ice-skating on a distant-relative's pond.  Sizeable crowds gathered doing the same.  Perhaps time has fogged my memory as to the frequency of such events, but they did occur regularly-enough back then for my parents to have invested in skates for all us kids.  Things are very different these days.

That is interesting. I grew up close to the Potomac in Loudoun so maybe that is why we never did it. The river was really the only body of water I saw in the winter. And my parents hate the cold

[Jebman]

It would really be fun to take a Bay jebwalk, lol.

[poolz1]

15.8/8  high clouds starting to dim the moon...

[WxUSAF]

Put obs for tonight and tomorrow in the storm thread please.