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December Discobs Thread


George BM

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5 minutes ago, mattie g said:

The only thing I can think of that would be causing such busts is that someone/something is applying the GFS’s new UHI algorithm  to its low-temp forecasts.

Yeah,  one of our forum mets said that, but even last night's Euro had me at 32-33. I'm thinking maybe it's low soil moisture,  but even that is taken into consideration in the models so who knows. But,  low busts seem to happen in the decent winters, so there's that too.

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31 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Another epic bust on low temps at BWI.  Forecast was 34 and bottomed out at 27. Pretty bad.

My forecast low was 32. So 5 under here. Pretty ideal radiational cooling conditions, and it is December. Using MOS guidance etc you would think they could get closer.

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6 hours ago, poolz1 said:

An 8 degree bust here...no UHI factored into the models in the sticks.  Forecasted low of 32...hit 23.8.  Still 27.5 with very heavy frost this morning which almost looked like snow on the ground at dawn.

Had heavy frost here in McHenry too and did a double take that it snowed last night.  Low was 4 degrees below the forecast here.

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Models only really started picking up on this morning's rain yesterday with the HRRR being the most aggressive showing light rain overspreading the region. Three days ago it looked like a fairly clear morning was on tap. Two days ago it looked partly cloudy w/ a very weak disturbance. Yesterday is when pockets of light drizzle/rain started being detected by the short range models. Needless to say, this would have been a big surprise for some had it been a couple of degrees colder. 

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35 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said:

28 this morning with fog. Lots of frost on the deck and car, although maybe its freezing fog. Either way its sort of cool and a bit eerie out there.

It's a beautiful morning! I stopped at a lake near work and took a few pictures on the way in today.  I'll check them out this evening to see if there's anything decent to post.

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No fog at home departure (about 6:30), but hit a wall of fog on Rte 3 in Bowie. After turning westward it got to be wicked thick fog in Bowie. Then, went back to reasonably good visibility by the time I hit Mitchellville.

Significant windshield scrape this morning too.

Winter knocking on the door perhaps.

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I know we're all frustrated because it's never going to snow, but let's realize that our pattern changing cold FROPA is about to happen which was modeled more or less accurately 15 days out.  -NAO not going to verify as strong as first hinted, but the -EPO/-AO/+PNA sure will.  

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2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I know we're all frustrated because it's never going to snow, but let's realize that our pattern changing cold FROPA is about to happen which was modeled more or less accurately 15 days out.  -NAO not going to verify as strong as first hinted, but the -EPO/-AO/+PNA sure will.  

Warm/wet. Cold/dry.

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