GunBlade Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 11 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Eric Webb @webberweather 1h1 hour ago Whatever legitimate warm-up was supposed to occur after this week especially near the end of November into early December is progressively going down right the drain & may be limited to a day or two/ the half-width of a s/w ridge in the north-central US & southern Canada Much welcome change from the seemingly never ending years recently of projected cold that never arrives until after winter. How many December’s and January’s were supposed to be cold only to torch.... Winter weather or not it’d be nice to have WINTER for a change! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 14, 2018 Share Posted November 14, 2018 2 hours ago, GunBlade said: Much welcome change from the seemingly never ending years recently of projected cold that never arrives until after winter. How many December’s and January’s were supposed to be cold only to torch.... Winter weather or not it’d be nice to have WINTER for a change! Last winter delivered the goods post Christmas! February sucked, but the rest was rockin, deep into spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarySnowLover Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 I would really love to see a cold December with SNOW for once in the RDU area. Every December since 2011 has been mild and snowless in this area. Last December was especially frustrating with the Deep South getting a significant snowfall and me getting cold rain. Maybe our fortunes will change this year...I hope so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 +pna-nao and -ao is my favorite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Some serious Cold starting to show up in Canada/Pac NW around first of December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 21h21 hours ago Looking like the mild/warm December forecasts (including mine from 10/31) are likely in big trouble. Western North American ridge, -NAO, cold start (at least) for December looking likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 53 minutes ago, Thor said: Some serious Cold starting to show up in Canada/Pac NW around first of December 1030mb High over WV.. 1007 Low with trough over Texas/Oklahoma... That needs to be monitored Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said: 1030mb High over WV.. 1007 Low with trough over Texas/Oklahoma... That needs to be monitored Seriously? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 16 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: Seriously? Yes, if you're north of the Mason-Dixon! Actually it is something to look at. Given that the Canadian cold north of the 1030 is just marginally cold, I would like to see a little stronger high; maybe 1035, 1038, something along those lines, although the location helps as well. The biggest problem I see with set up is the low placement, waaay to far north for us. Would need to track along the gulf coast; say NO to JAX. But you don't want the low to crank up much either; brings in too much warm air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Yes, if you're north of the Mason-Dixon! Actually it is something to look at. Given that the Canadian cold north of the 1030 is just marginally cold, I would like to see a little stronger high; maybe 1035, 1038, something along those lines, although the location helps as well. The biggest problem I see with set up is the low placement, waaay to far north for us. Would need to track along the gulf coast; say NO to JAX. But you don't want the low to crank up much either; brings in too much warm air.It's at hour ~5000! A little far out there to be monitoring specific lows, don't you think? (If I somehow missed the dry humor, I apologise.)Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted November 15, 2018 Share Posted November 15, 2018 Wow that cold shot at 384 on the FV3... That is frigid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Yeah the FV3 continues to show a colder pattern for the east in the medium to long range compared to the OP GFS. This from the most recent 0Z run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 With so many things appearing to fall in our favor for the long range, now is the time to step back and ask ourselves "what can go wrong." TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 31 minutes ago, tarheelwx said: With so many things appearing to fall in our favor for the long range, now is the time to step back and ask ourselves "what can go wrong." TW Sun sngle, ground temp, planetary alignment. Pick your poison lol. The cliff will never be too high to jump from! Not referring to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 26 minutes ago, GunBlade said: Sun sngle, ground temp, planetary alignment. Pick your poison lol. The cliff will never be too high to jump from! Not referring to you. models not showing the warm nose as the low bombs offshore until the NAM shows 8" of snow change to 3" of sleet and rain 36hrs out while we argue that the NAM is trash and to trust the gfs/euro ensembles showing a foot of powder.... all hypothetical of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 The real question is whether a rain event will coincide with the cold air dump. The Southeast usually has a problem getting both rain and cold air to come together at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CyclonicFury Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 2 hours ago, tarheelwx said: With so many things appearing to fall in our favor for the long range, now is the time to step back and ask ourselves "what can go wrong." TW Surface temperatures above freezing, warm air nose, or warm soil temperatures. One of the three always seems to show up in the month of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 3 minutes ago, CyclonicFury said: Surface temperatures above freezing, warm air nose, or warm soil temperatures. One of the three and a wide array of other killjoys always seems to show up in the season of winter. FYP!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 It’s not even Thanksgiving and the cynics are out in full force. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 4 hours ago, tarheelwx said: With so many things appearing to fall in our favor for the long range, now is the time to step back and ask ourselves "what can go wrong." TW 3 hours ago, GunBlade said: Sun sngle, ground temp, planetary alignment. Pick your poison lol. The cliff will never be too high to jump from! Not referring to you. 3 hours ago, DopplerWx said: models not showing the warm nose as the low bombs offshore until the NAM shows 8" of snow change to 3" of sleet and rain 36hrs out while we argue that the NAM is trash and to trust the gfs/euro ensembles showing a foot of powder.... all hypothetical of course. 1 hour ago, CyclonicFury said: Surface temperatures above freezing, warm air nose, or warm soil temperatures. One of the three always seems to show up in the month of December. You all forgot a classic: Too strong of a high, dry slot, and deep enough cold to cause major suppression that leaves everything off the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: You all forgot a classic: Too strong of a high, dry slot, and deep enough cold to cause major suppression that leaves everything off the coast. Oh. And thunderstorms in the panhandle robbing our moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Us in the south have about 100 things that can go wrong not to get a snowstorm and up in the midwest or northeast it snows at nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Warm bubble on the lee side..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 12 minutes ago, GunBlade said: Oh. And thunderstorms in the panhandle robbing our moisture. When that really does happen it hurts the most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 43 minutes ago, GunBlade said: Oh. And thunderstorms in the panhandle robbing our moisture. 30 minutes ago, Southern Track said: When that really does happen it hurts the most. Most brutal scenario of all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 48 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Most brutal scenario of all Moisture-robbing thunderstorms only ever occur when all other factors actually fall into place for a major winter storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 23 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Moisture-robbing thunderstorms only ever occur when all other factors actually fall into place for a major winter storm. Yep, it is no fly in the ointment, it is a whole spider... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 The afternoon Euro Ensemble for days 5-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Nice looking evolution! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 December to remember coming up!! Love these trends. Bring me a cold D/J and then back into the 60's for F/M. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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