Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

[GunBlade]

58 minutes ago, McDowell_Weather said:

Sleets not bad its the leaves on the trees guna have major power problems if it's predominately zr. Sleets like gravel tbh easier to brake on vs snow ice anyway what about a thread guys who guna bring the mojo as in a nice cold rain lol

Agreed.  Issue is if you get sleet then ZR on top of it and the roads will be a literal ice rink.  And if enough ZR power lines and trees down etc... as well like you mentioned.  In my mind getting both is the worst case scenario. 

[Isopycnic]

[CAD_Wedge_NC]

38 minutes ago, Isopycnic said:

That map has over a foot of snow in places that won't see anything other than a cold rain. Pathetic....

[Buddy1987]

3k and 12k nam are a complete disaster for the entire 81 corridor. Never flips over up this way. I feel like it spares most of northwestern NC and the mountains this go around.

[mackerel_sky]

1 hour ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

That map has over a foot of snow in places that won't see anything other than a cold rain. Pathetic....

Yeah, it’s almost as bad as the Euro clown maps!

[FallsLake]

Today's indices (similar to yesterdays):

PNA - Looks to be ~neutral in the LR

AO - Looks to go strongly negative in the LR

NAO - Looks to go strongly negative in the LR

Overall a great setup, not sure what the optimal configuration is for the SE; whereas do we want the PNA to be more strongly positive over the NAO and AO being strongly negative.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

[Orangeburgwx]

Just now, FallsLake said:

Today's indices (similar to yesterdays):

PNA - Looks to be ~neutral in the LR

AO - Looks to go strongly negative in the LR

NAO - Looks to go strongly negative in the LR

Overall a great setup, not sure what the optimal configuration is for the SE; whereas do we want the PNA to be more strongly positive over the NAO and AO being strongly negative.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

If the PNA goes positive and all other factors hold course it will be perfect 

[FallsLake]

1 minute ago, Orangeburgwx said:

If the PNA goes positive and all other factors hold course it will be perfect 

Yep, but the million dollar question is; if you had to pick which 2 indices (from PNA, AO, NAO) were strongly in your favor and have the other neutral what would be the best configuration?

 

[franklin NCwx]

Just now, FallsLake said:

Yep, but the million dollar question is; if you had to pick which 2 indices (from PNA, AO, NAO) were strongly in your favor and have the other neutral what would be the best configuration?

 

-nao and -ao

[NCSNOW]

Dewpoint is 28 in Martinsville, 33 in Greensboro. See 8f we can get it to crash down a few more ticks today before moisture arives. Wetbulb is safely above 32 for time being.

 

 

[Orangeburgwx]

2 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Yep, but the million dollar question is; if you had to pick which 2 indices (from PNA, AO, NAO) were strongly in your favor and have the other neutral what would be the best configuration?

 

 

1 minute ago, franklin NCwx said:

-nao and -ao

I second this... Definitely the -NAO and -AO

[Cold Rain]

I'd go PNA and AO.  You can have a -NAO and -AO but if you get a screaming pac jet, you'll be enjoying a nice cool rain, at least outside of the mountains.  You need a delivery of cold into the US.  -PNA is a direct way to do that.  The -NAO is icing and will lock it in and slow the storm track, if it's configured the right way.  The -AO (and also a -EPO) will tend to seed the source region with cold so that it can be delivered into the US.

[FallsLake]

Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

 

I second this... Definitely the -NAO and -AO

Yeah, I guess that the AO would provide the cross polar feed and the NAO would buckle that air/pattern towards the eastern US. **just scares me that a negative PNA would try to flood the US with pacific air.  

[Orangeburgwx]

Just now, Cold Rain said:

I'd go PNA and AO.  You can have a -NAO and -AO but if you get a screaming pac jet, you'll be enjoying a nice cool rain, at least outside of the mountains.  You need a delivery of cold into the US.  -PNA is a direct way to do that.  The -NAO is icing and will lock it in and slow the storm track, if it's configured the right way.

So the gold mine is a triple negative? 

[FallsLake]

1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

I'd go PNA and AO.  You can have a -NAO and -AO but if you get a screaming pac jet, you'll be enjoying a nice cool rain, at least outside of the mountains.  You need a delivery of cold into the US.  -PNA is a direct way to do that.  The -NAO is icing and will lock it in and slow the storm track, if it's configured the right way.

Lol..you just beat me to it CR. 

[Cold Rain]

Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

So the gold mine is a triple negative? 

Add the -EPO and go for the quad.

[Buddy1987]

I personally worry about it being strongly negative though, referencing the NAO. My interpretation is it needs to be slightly to moderately negative to be on the money, however I would much rather have it in the negative than positive, which we have had to deal with almost every winter. Beggers can’t be choosers. 

[Orangeburgwx]

1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

Add the -EPO and go for the quad.

What is the EPO forecast LR anyway?

[FallsLake]

Just now, Cold Rain said:

Add the -EPO and go for the quad.

Remember a few years back we kept seeing a terrible look to the PNA, AO, and NAO. The models also kept showing a warm LR look but as we got closer the cold held. -EPO saved the day, and it was by itself.  

[FallsLake]

2 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

What is the EPO forecast LR anyway?

Negative in the LR --good

Edit: this was from yesterday

 

[Cold Rain]

Just now, Buddy1987 said:

I personally worry about it being strongly negative though, referencing the NAO. My interpretation is it needs to be slightly to moderately negative to be on the money, however I would much rather have it in the negative than positive, which we have had to deal with almost every winter. Beggers can’t be choosers. 

It's not binary (as in strongly negative vs. slightly negative).  We like to use it as a general measure of wintry potential.  And it's fine to do that in a "general" sense.  But it's a lot more complicated when you get down to the details of a winter storm.  West vs. East-based, strength, change in strength, change in sign, orientation of the block, are all dynamic variables that matter.  You can get a big storm or a big bust with any combination of those, as there are other big pattern drivers acting at the same time.  But generally, a -NAO is what we want.  The rest of it becomes a game day decision.

[Orangeburgwx]

1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

Remember a few years back we kept seeing a terrible look to the PNA, AO, and NAO. The models also kept showing a warm LR look but as we got closer the cold held. -EPO saved the day, and it was by itself.  

That was 2014 if I recall correctly... I got a nasty ice storm but managed to get a good couple of inches of snow after that 

[Cold Rain]

-EPOs are good for mixy events around these parts.

[Buddy1987]

1 minute ago, Cold Rain said:

It's not binary (as in strongly negative vs. slightly negative).  We like to use it as a general measure of wintry potential.  And it's fine to do that in a "general" sense.  But it's a lot more complicated when you get down to the details of a winter storm.  West vs. East-based, strength, change in strength, change in sign, orientation of the block, are all dynamic variables that matter.  You can get a big storm or a big bust with any combination of those, as there are other big pattern drivers acting at the same time.  But generally, a -NAO is what we want.  The rest of it becomes a game day decision.

That’s actually a great explanation of this. Very detailed. Thanks for that man!

[FallsLake]

I'll add to the need of a strong positive PNA, it not only stops the pacific air from flooding the country but it helps drive the storm track farther south as it develops to our west. How many times have we tracked how strong the western ridge is and how it effects a potential winter storm location.  

[GunBlade]

7 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

It's not binary (as in strongly negative vs. slightly negative).  We like to use it as a general measure of wintry potential.  And it's fine to do that in a "general" sense.  But it's a lot more complicated when you get down to the details of a winter storm.  West vs. East-based, strength, change in strength, change in sign, orientation of the block, are all dynamic variables that matter.  You can get a big storm or a big bust with any combination of those, as there are other big pattern drivers acting at the same time.  But generally, a -NAO is what we want.  The rest of it becomes a game day decision.

Yup great explanation.  We’ve seen big storms with terrible indexes but timing has to be PERFECT!  Getting more of them in our favor gives some more wiggle room to spare for potential storms. 

[Cold Rain]

8 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

That’s actually a great explanation of this. Very detailed. Thanks for that man!

 

1 minute ago, GunBlade said:

Yup great explanation.  We’ve seen big storms with terrible indexes but timing has to be PERFECT!  Getting more of them in our favor gives some more wiggle room to spare for potential storms. 

No problem.  Yeah, I always equate it to the eye of a needle.  You're always threading the needle when it comes to SE winter weather, especially when it comes to a snowstorm vs. mixing events.  Having a favorable alignment of indexes gives you a bigger eye.  But you still need the thread and a steady pair of hands lol!

[Southern Track]

We haven’t seen the effects of a -NAO to our weather in so long,  I will have no idea what to expect lol

[NCSNOW]

Always think of the nao as the trap door, keeps cold locked in. The pna is the driver,spikes up and forces cold air down. So if your neutral to slightly pos and the nao is tanking. Then you can get air to come down and stay around for a while. Actually we should do well with the forecasted indicies. 

[WinstonSalemArlington]

Eric Webb‏ @webberweather 1h1 hour ago

 

 

Whatever legitimate warm-up was supposed to occur after this week especially near the end of November into early December is progressively going down right the drain & may be limited to a day or two/ the half-width of a s/w ridge in the north-central US & southern Canada