JoshM Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 6z NAM seems to be colder, yet again. Instead of the clown maps, which some people take literal, these are the dewpoints in the heart of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Should be using wet bulb if possible. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 You have to love this look as we head towards December: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, Poimen said: You have to love this look as we head towards December: "I'm dreaming of a white Christmas, just like the ones we've NEVER KNOWN, (except that one time)" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Continuing the trends, 6z RGEM is uber cold as precip adverts northward between 45-54hrs. Has freezing rain all the way down the SW NC mountains. I can see the NWS offices are tepid with their forecasts, naturally so as it’s the 13th of NOV but guidance continues to suggest this being a moderate event imo, especially for NOV standards for a lot of the mountain and foothill regions of the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Despite the cold rain in our area, hard not to get excited at the overall pattern... these kinds of storms would be nice hits for our area come late D into JF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 hour ago, Poimen said: You have to love this look as we head towards December: When was the last time the NAO was that strongly negative? That's almost out the bottom of the graph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, ajr said: Despite the cold rain in our area, hard not to get excited at the overall pattern... these kinds of storms would be nice hits for our area come late D into JF. I will take a cold rain in November if it means blockbuster snow in Dec.-March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 12Z RGEM is bad news for WNC. Gets foothill locations down to 28 during height of Precip. IIRC, RGEM has done well in CAD events. We’ll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 This would not be good. This is the 12z RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 24 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: This would not be good. This is the 12z RGEM. Colder all across the board... This is gonna be bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 It will be interesting to see what the 18z and 0z models spit out.... will the trend continue of colder and more ice, or will it trend warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstatescweather Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Starting to creep into upstate on the maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I highly doubt this will be a major impact unless the rates are lighter than shown. Heavy rates are not conducive for a major ice storm. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Something about the modeled -NAO is wrong, and an Aleutian ridge appears at the same time for the first time since July. I think it could lead to a warmer December if verified, the way it tears apart the PV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Did the GFS snort crack? That clown map on the FV3 is ridiculous Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thor Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 13 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said: Did the GFS snort crack? That clown map on the FV3 is ridiculous It's the Tropical Tidbits maps that are doing that. It's not showing up on other sites like that. Hopefully everyone is ignoring that mess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Something about the modeled -NAO is wrong, and an Aleutian ridge appears at the same time for the first time since July. I think it could lead to a warmer December if verified, the way it tears apart the PV. looks pretty promising to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Under a winter storm watch and flood watch. It’s November 13th y’all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 14 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Under a winter storm watch and flood watch. It’s November 13th y’all. I missed the watch (of the winter variety) by one county, though I am in the extreme NW corner of my non-warned county. I'm expecting a little sleet, a bit of ZR, and a bunch of rain IMBY. Let's do this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 14 minutes ago, calculus1 said: I missed the watch (of the winter variety) by one county, though I am in the extreme NW corner of my non-warned county. I'm expecting a little sleet, a bit of ZR, and a bunch of rain IMBY. Let's do this! I am south of you by a few miles..... I am expecting about the same. Good signs for winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 RGEM is coming in cold again... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Ugh I hate my new hours at work. Work until 9p. Please keep me up to date as to what’s happening guys. Crazy to see the RGEM coming in cold again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 49 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Under a winter storm watch and flood watch. It’s November 13th y’all. We gunna have to hunker down an hold on tight here along the escarpment! Even with high rates if we get down to what the rgem is showing 2.0 of precipitation we could end up with a half inch of ice. Here too a sleetfest fingers crossed...….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 To lend credence to the RGEM the 12k nam is actually pretty similar in portraying frozen vs rain. 3k a little warmer during the same timeframe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 How about a mixed bag! ..FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON... .TONIGHT...Cloudy. Lows in the upper 30s. North winds around 10 mph this evening, becoming light and variable. .WEDNESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Highs in the upper 40s. Light and variable winds, becoming northeast around 10 mph in the afternoon. .WEDNESDAY NIGHT...Rain or freezing rain. Ice accumulation of up to one quarter of an inch. Lows in the lower 30s. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. .THURSDAY...Rain and freezing rain in the morning, then rain likely in the afternoon. Highs in the upper 30s. Northeast winds around 10 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent. .THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain or snow showers, mainly in the evening. Little or no snow accumulation. Near steady temperature in the mid 30s. Light and variable winds, becoming northwest around 10 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 50 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 8 minutes ago, McDowell_Weather said: We gunna have to hunker down an hold on tight here along the escarpment! Even with high rates if we get down to what the rgem is showing 2.0 of precipitation we could end up with a half inch of ice. Here too a sleetfest fingers crossed...….. Yes. Need to hope we hold onto sleet longer than projected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 31 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Yes. Need to hope we hold onto sleet longer than projected. Yea but then you get a thick layer of sleet that easily ices over ones the ZR starts. Not sure that’s any better. Probably worse for the roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDowell_Weather Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 14 minutes ago, GunBlade said: Yea but then you get a thick layer of sleet that easily ices over ones the ZR starts. Not sure that’s any better. Probably worse for the roads. Sleets not bad its the leaves on the trees guna have major power problems if it's predominately zr. Sleets like gravel tbh easier to brake on vs snow ice anyway what about a thread guys who guna bring the mojo as in a nice cold rain lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 18z RGEM and NAM still very Icy in NW NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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