Buddy1987 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 It’s great to see everyone on here year in and year out! I will say for it being November I was mightily impressed with surface temps today up in Roanoke. Actually got up to 41 and then the column cooled, it sleeted heavily and then turned to rain but stayed around 37 the entire day, even as of right now. I have a sneaky suspicion this one Wed night/Thursday overperforms and def agree with some of the chatter in here regarding Cad setups. Nam will naturally lead on this one so to the newbies pay special attention to HP strength, dew point signatures leading up and onset of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 NAM Clown Map, thru 66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said: It’s great to see everyone on here year in and year out! I will say for it being November I was mightily impressed with surface temps today up in Roanoke. Actually got up to 41 and then the column cooled, it sleeted heavily and then turned to rain but stayed around 37 the entire day, even as of right now. I have a sneaky suspicion this one Wed night/Thursday overperforms and def agree with some of the chatter in here regarding Cad setups. Nam will naturally lead on this one so to the newbies pay special attention to HP strength, dew point signatures leading up and onset of precip. Same here today. High temp of 37 with a low of 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Same here today. High temp of 37 with a low of 31. The 32k nam is in absolute perfect position at 60 hrs with the HP right around the Binghamton NY area. That imo is where we have our major ice storms due to funneling of the cold air coming straight out of the St Lawrence Valley. As you alluded to as well it strengthened the mb by 2 with a 1038 now being progged. Def a concern at this point. GFS resembles anything remotely close I’d start honking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Nasty Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Going to be a very very close call (what's new) for a lot of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 FWIW, 3k NAM is having none of this, temps much warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Well... 3k is warmer, someone please tell me how the heck it's showing frozen precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, JoshM said: Well... 3k is warmer, someone please tell me how the heck it's showing frozen precip? For my backyard it was 32 with Precip falling. Only about 2 degrees warmer than 12k Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 From what I'm seeing, the 3k is warmer than the 12k. However, the 0Z 3k is a fair amount stronger with the wedge than the 18z run. The key is to look at trends. For the time being, they are stronger and colder with the high/wedge. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 14 minutes ago, JoshM said: FWIW, 3k NAM is having none of this, temps much warmer. 2m dew points are stout all the way into central NC at 60. That will play a factor in this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: For my backyard it was 32 with Precip falling. Only about 2 degrees warmer than 12k Big difference with 2 degrees, especially in NC Piedmont and Upstate SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cg2916 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 What I'm confused by is why 3k is showing snow depth for MBY even though the whole column is above freezing (or just at it, at best) the whole time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Again, the key takeaway is that the 3k and 12k both trended stronger with the high, the wedge, and the cold. If things play out as currently modeled, there won't be much impact east of the mountains. However, there isn't much wiggle room left. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Def trended colder!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 The latest ZR map from pivotal weather for the 00Z 12K NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, calculus1 said: The latest ZR map from pivotal weather for the 00Z 12K NAM. Wow!! No way this early in the game! Is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Just now, BIG FROSTY said: Wow!! No way this early in the game! Is it? No. It’s November 15th! I’m sure you will still find a way to get 3” of sleet, by accident Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: No. It’s November 15th! I’m sure you will still find a way to get 3” of sleet, by accident Haha there he is right on que!! lol If I do, I'll send you some pics! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 This is probably much more realistic, but it's only out through hour 60. Here's the 00Z 4K NAM: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Gfs follows suit and comes in colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Seems a no brainer for NWS to put a 6-12 hour period of zr into the CAD regions for later Wednesday night into late morning Thursday. Both NAMs are showing advisory or warning criteria for CAD and mountain regions of NC. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 7 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Gfs follows suit and comes in colder. Unreal!! We never flip to plain rain up here verbatim 0z gfs. ZR the entire duration precip falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, Disc said: Very conservative after some of these 0z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 That was posted 8 hours ago I believe TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 5 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Very conservative after some of these 0z runs. 3pm graphic. Likely will have another in a few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 hour ago, cg2916 said: What I'm confused by is why 3k is showing snow depth for MBY even though the whole column is above freezing (or just at it, at best) the whole time? http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=nam&p=sn10_acc&rh=2018111300&fh=84&r=conus&dpdt= Use the Pivotal Weather maps for the NAM snowfall, they are much more accurate and use a better algorithm to distinguish between snow, ice and cold rain. The Tropical Tidbits maps have major issues on the NAM snowfall maps and can be very misleading in a setup like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 1 hour ago, JoshM said: NAM Clown Map, thru 66 I'll take it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted November 13, 2018 Share Posted November 13, 2018 I honestly couldn't tell you exactly what's going on with the TT snowmaps, but something is funky with how the algorithm is coded and it's producing a lot of spurious totals. Trash those maps. We're not getting any snow whatsoever with this system. We're familiar with the tropes surrounding CAD wintry mix events. They often (but not always) trend colder and stronger, especially at event onset when models have a very hard time modeling the in-situ nature of some CADs. I could see that happening a little here. Generally, this is still a pretty textbook look for a CAD wintry event and I'd be on my toes for a lot of folks in the Triad and along i77 to maybe Statesville to see advisory level sleet/ice accums. Now that being said, let's hold our horses just a little bit. If this were January, I think this would have potential to be a major ice storm for a lot of NC. But, fortunately, it's still only November, and these cold air lobes are still in their nascency. I don't like curtailing a forecast based on climatology, because that's bitten me in the butt before, but I think it's important to take a step back and realize that this is already a rare event for mid-November, and a colder, more expansive icy area is just making an already anomalous event *more* anomalous. One last thing to address- Some folks have rightly acknowledged that ice is a self limiting process, and I think that is a concern with this. I don't think that cold air advection will do the trick keeping things below freezing. In a CAD event, your cold air source is coming further north along the mountains. In this event, that air won't be fresh cold, dry air! In Greensboro, that cold air advection will be shuffling in air that has *already* had a lot of latent heat added to it from icing upstream! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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