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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

Cary_Snow95

By Cary_Snow95,
in Southeastern States

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CyclonicFury

CyclonicFury

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

I take it as a positive that this kind of stuff is showing up in mid-November instead of us having to hang our hopes on this in January.

Oh, and anyone notice that little gem in the far SE corner of the map?

Clash of the seasons. It's still hurricane season but it's not quite time for snow for the Southeast just yet. 

It's just too early. 

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JoshM

JoshM

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ILMRoss said:

NAM is completely possible... I’m interpreting it as a warning shot.

Models are depicting a textbook worthy CAD Setup coming this Thursday... 1036ish in favored spot is hard to ignore. If there’s any setup to get crippling I77 corridor icestorms in November, it’s this.
.

Indeed... Getting interesting

namconus_ref_frzn_eus_50.png

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WinstonSalemArlington

WinstonSalemArlington

Posted
Posted

Warmup Cancel 

Eric Webb: As others alluded to, in just 4 runs, the EPS completely flip-flopped over the NE Pacific. Any hopes for a quick warm-up/moderation in the E US quickly went down the drain w/ these earlier runs. Once again we find ourselves settling back into an all too familiar +TNH/-EPO pattern https://t.co/EszgHsHOxu

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted

Indices looking good to end the month; which is what we want to see:

PNA - Looks to stay ~neutral  for the next two weeks (we would like this to be more positive, but not bad) 

AO - Looks to go strongly negative (..lets get some of that cross polar cold)

NAO - Looks to go strongly negative (..is this a sign we could see a predominant -NAO this winter...maybe)

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

 

 

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Poimen

Poimen

Posted
Posted

With respects to the Thursday system: I'm interested to see if it trends colder the closer we get to game time. Last year, every winter event trended colder in that way (in my neck of the woods at least), and I'd like to see if we get started on a similar path this year, even if it only means an hour or two more of frozen precip. 

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted
21 minutes ago, Poimen said:

With respects to the Thursday system: I'm interested to see if it trends colder the closer we get to game time. Last year, every winter event trended colder in that way, and I'd like to see if we get started on a similar path this year, even if it only means an hour or two more of frozen precip. 

The 12z NAM and GFS both trended slightly colder from their previous run. CAD events do tend to trend better as we get closer; as long as there is sufficient cold air to available to our north. I would love to see teens dew points showing in VA (right now we have 20s). 

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snowlover91

snowlover91

Posted
Posted

I hope everyone realizes these NAM "snowfall" maps are picking up on the ice qpf? There is absolutely no snow involved in NC anything frozen will be in the form of ZR per soundings. Pivotal weather is a much better source when ice is involved. Here's the amount of qpf that actually falls as ZR. Ice accrual will be minimal due to quickly warming and marginal temps to start along with latent heat release quickly warming areas above freezing. Still enough for some slick roads in the AM for CAD regions.

 

 

ZR.JPG

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calculus1

calculus1

Posted
Posted

Hmm...

One inch of freeing rain in Hickory on November 14? Color me skeptical.

If, and that's a big if, we were to get a strong enough CAD, I can see perhaps up to a quarter inch of accretion, but freezing rain is a self-limitting process. There's no way we would remain cold enough to allow an inch of ice to accumulate. The ground is still relatively warm too. (Let's not have the soil temperatures argument, please.) Bridges might be a little slick, though.

Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk

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FallsLake

FallsLake

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

Hmm...

One inch of freeing rain in Hickory on November 14? Color me skeptical.

If, and that's a big if, we were to get a strong enough CAD, I can see perhaps up to a quarter inch of accretion, but freezing rain is a self-limitting process. There's no way we would remain cold enough to allow an inch of ice to accumulate. The ground is still relatively warm too. (Let's not have the soil temperatures argument, please.) Bridges might be a little slick, though.

Sent from my Alcatel 6055U using Tapatalk
 

I agree, but if anybody is going to get something it'll be folks in your location (foothills & parts of the western piedmont). We need to keep an eye on the dew point trends in the models the next few runs.

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CAD_Wedge_NC

CAD_Wedge_NC

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, snowlover91 said:

I hope everyone realizes these NAM "snowfall" maps are picking up on the ice qpf? There is absolutely no snow involved in NC anything frozen will be in the form of ZR per soundings. Pivotal weather is a much better source when ice is involved. Here's the amount of qpf that actually falls as ZR. Ice accrual will be minimal due to quickly warming and marginal temps to start along with latent heat release quickly warming areas above freezing. Still enough for some slick roads in the AM for CAD regions.

 

 

ZR.JPG

Just can't imagine that for this time of year. No way that happens..... That would require a strong continual cold air feed. This is technically a hybrid event, but in my opinion, it would take a classical event to get to these levels. With all that being said, we should look at dew-point trends leading up to the event to see how likely this will be. Right now, I am inclined to believe that it is just the NAM being the NAM.

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GunBlade

GunBlade

Posted
Posted

Yea no way those extremes happen. ZR takes a lot of things going right and those type of totals need temps in the 20’s especially with heavy QPF.  

Good signs though hopefully for the winter ahead and I could definitely see some ideal locations getting a glazing of ice which any ice is still nasty. 

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GunBlade

GunBlade

Posted
Posted

GSP agrees with some ice in some places and even notes amounts could be under done.

The primary concern for this period remains the potential for at least a transient period of freezing rain the climatologically favored areas of the eastern Blue Ridge escarpment, where low level cold advection owing to the classical nature of the CAD as well as upslope flow should provide at least an adequate mechanism for maintenance of cold air. Indeed, there is a strong consensus among statistical and raw model guidance that surface temps will be at or below freezing across much of the northern mtn zones for a good six hours from around 09-15Z Thursday, and this will be during a time in which precip rates should be relatively high. As such, the ice accum forecast has been nudged to to .1-.2 inch from roughly Montreat N/NE to Newland/Banner Elk. This is probably still a bit on the conservative side, as guidance warms temps to above freezing along the escarpment by late Thursday morning, and this may be too soon considering the forecast strength of the CAD. 

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tarheelwx

tarheelwx

Posted
Posted

Just a comment about  freezing rain and ice accretion.  Several have noted that this is a self limiting process.  That is true in many cases, but in cases with ideal placement of high pressure and continual advection of cold air/low dew points, it is easy to keep temps under freezing.  In fact, that is how most ice storms in CAD areas play out.  In most cases with a hybrid event or high pressure moving out, it is self limiting.  It's just that not all cases are hybrids or highs sliding out.

TW

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Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

Blue_Ridge_Escarpment

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Just a comment about  freezing rain and ice accretion.  Several have noted that this is a self limiting process.  That is true in many cases, but in cases with ideal placement of high pressure and continual advection of cold air/low dew points, it is easy to keep temps under freezing.  In fact, that is how most ice storms in CAD areas play out.  In most cases with a hybrid event or high pressure moving out, it is self limiting.  It's just that not all cases are hybrids or highs sliding out.

TW

One thing that concerns me a little bit is how pronounced this CAD is on all models already. CAD usually strengthens within 48 hours. This is early in the season so we will see if that still holds true this time. 

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