Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

[The Alchemist]

576?!?! Holy crap!!! I had to do the math to figure that out 24 days out... yeah like that will happen... I’m as much a weenie as the next guy and I’d love it if it verifies... but I never knew any model ran that far out

 

 

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[Gibby]

Not that it will verify, but its fun to see wintry precip show up. 

[eyewall]

1 hour ago, Gibby said:

Not that it will verify, but its fun to see wintry precip show up. 

Hahah that is fun to look at but overall you just want to see the pattern setting up in our favor at this point.

[Orangeburgwx]

1 hour ago, Gibby said:

Not that it will verify, but its fun to see wintry precip show up. 

Wow... Getting a little trigger happy

[Poimen]

19 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Where did you even find the 576 EURO

It’s the Euro control run. I was just posting for fun.

[FallsLake]

Indices don't look good the next couple of weeks. PNA goes negative, AO goes positive, and NAO goes positive. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

But I'm ok with this for the first half of November. Hopefully this sets the stage for them to turn in our favor at or just after Thanksgiving. **which I think is a good sign for winter 

[Orangeburgwx]

53 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Indices don't look good the next couple of weeks. PNA goes negative, AO goes positive, and NAO goes positive. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

But I'm ok with this for the first half of November. Hopefully this sets the stage for them to turn in our favor at or just after Thanksgiving. **which I think is a good sign for winter 

Here is your proof... Major score:

https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1057994334459584512

[FallsLake]

1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Here is your proof... Major score:

https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1057994334459584512

Beggars can't be choosers, so if we get a back loaded winter I wont complain. I've read from other folks thinking this could occur as well.

But, I sure would love to see December start cold early. 

[Orangeburgwx]

39 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Beggars can't be choosers, so if we get a back loaded winter I wont complain. I've read from other folks thinking this could occur as well.

But, I sure would love to see December start cold early. 

We just night get it, FV3 is hinting at 2 snow events for the mountains in the next 10 days

[Waiting on snow]

8 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Indices don't look good the next couple of weeks. PNA goes negative, AO goes positive, and NAO goes positive. 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

But I'm ok with this for the first half of November. Hopefully this sets the stage for them to turn in our favor at or just after Thanksgiving. **which I think is a good sign for winter 

NAO going positive. That's a shock!!!

[FallsLake]

1 hour ago, Waiting on snow said:

NAO going positive. That's a shock!!!

Yeah, it being negative the last few days was a first in 6 months. We can only hope that this will start occurring more from this point forwards. 

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

It's actually not a big deal, what's happening right now is +PNA and -NAO. El Nino is driving. The indicies like that are passing waves. 

[fountainguy97]

Fv3 looking wintry in the long range.

I will not be surprised to see a Southeast winter storm in December. Shoot maybe November.

 

[CarySnowLover]

14 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Fv3 looking wintry in the long range.

I will not be surprised to see a Southeast winter storm in December. Shoot maybe November.

 

I would love for the FV3 to be correct. But I'm just not buying it. It's an outlier, and it is hard to get my hopes up for anything before January knowing central NC climatology. I feel like we are due for an early snowstorm at some point, but until I see it with my own eyes, I have my doubts. 

[SnowNiner]

14 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said:

Fv3 looking wintry in the long range.

I will not be surprised to see a Southeast winter storm in December. Shoot maybe November.

 

Lol. Nice to see the FV3 still has the happy hour run this winter! Didn't want to lose that...

[AfewUniversesBelowNormal]

It's a good pattern. I think long range models look -PNAy because ocean SSTs are so warm right now, that is easily fixed in long wavelength season. Overall it's like 75% chance the Winte rwill dominate +PNA

[kvegas-wx]

At last I see a "slight" chance of light snow in the forecast here in the Triad next Sunday night.  But still a few 70° highs to endure this week before we get there.  Purely going by the "count of bugs trying to get in my house" forecast, I'd say the cold is indeed coming soon.

[fountainguy97]

I’m closely watching the 12-14th timeframe. Fv3-gfs has a suppressed storm with coastal NC getting a fringe snow event.   Good setup with good cold on the backside.  Surprisingly cold for November.  

 

If this his threat is still here inside 180hrs this could be a legit threat.

[fountainguy97]

Here it is.  Good setup and good suppressed look for this timeframe. This is not the first run either. This storm has been on the last 6-8 runs. With the most recent two being pretty identical given the timeframe.

 

[Orangeburgwx]

1 hour ago, fountainguy97 said:

Here it is.  Good setup and good suppressed look for this timeframe. This is not the first run either. This storm has been on the last 6-8 runs. With the most recent two being pretty identical given the timeframe.

 

Snowfall map gives me 1"... We all know the track record of underestimating the CAD, gives me vibes of this past January 

[CaryWx]

Come on Orange we're likely not getting snow but may need to open the fireplace sooner than expected. 

[CarySnowLover]

Not buying it because of years of climatology suggesting otherwise, but the 12z EPS is entertaining for NC. Several members have at least minor snowfall events in ~10 days. Would not rule out a brief flurry here similar to 2008/2013, but anything more seems highly unlikely. 

[NCSNOW]

Thanks to the pac (+pna) season kicks off early this year boys starting late next weekend into the following week. So much gets made out of watching the NAO, to me its always the pna going positive and anchoring in. Say it every winter, pick one tc you want on your side and for the SE for me its always the pna going positive on roids. Love the neg nao as much as anyone,but when you get a ridge bubbling up off western canada, the cold is coming gangbusters. Then you worry about timing issues with or without blocking. First step is always getting the cold air. 

[Waiting on snow]

1 hour ago, NCSNOW said:

Thanks to the pac (+pna) season kicks off early this year boys starting late next weekend into the following week. So much gets made out of watching the NAO, to me its always the pna going positive and anchoring in. Say it every winter, pick one tc you want on your side and for the SE for me its always the pna going positive on roids. Love the neg nao as much as anyone,but when you get a ridge bubbling up off western canada, the cold is coming gangbusters. Then you worry about timing issues with or without blocking. First step is always getting the cold air. 

That is true. But as you stated without the NAO it's always progressive and timing is crucial. Hadn't even looked but I'm sure the NAO is positive right?

[Orangeburgwx]

24 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said:

That is true. But as you stated without the NAO it's always progressive and timing is crucial. Hadn't even looked but I'm sure the NAO is positive right?

It is near zero right now, supposed to dip really negative around the 18th

[NCSNOW]

12 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

It is near zero right now, supposed to dip really negative around the 18th

Thats a big pac ridge going up latter this week into next week. It will have the snowguns turned on up at the slopes next Sunday. If we get the nao to dip a few days latter then the mtns could be in for a few treats at a minimum.  As Tyler already posted eps showing some higher than normal probability chances in 9 to 10 days. My foundest memory of 09-10 was the never ending tracking. Systems would come every 3 to 5 days and it was always boderline opportunities. Cashed in on more than we missed that winter.

[SENC]

On ‎11‎/‎3‎/‎2018 at 7:49 PM, fountainguy97 said:

Here it is.  Good setup and good suppressed look for this timeframe. This is not the first run either. This storm has been on the last 6-8 runs. With the most recent two being pretty identical given the timeframe.

 

Oh MY.. NO WAY! SST Temps are still in the low 70's Massive warm nose! Wilmywood getting snow in Nov? Bah Bah Bah! 

[NCSNOW]

Thats Vodka Cold,Not just cold coming down next week on the Euro. Sub 40 highs with full sun in mid November is impressive.

[No snow for you]

7 hours ago, NCSNOW said:

Thats Vodka Cold,Not just cold coming down next week on the Euro. Sub 40 highs with full sun in mid November is impressive.

Ice box. Get the fireplace ready. 

[Upstate Tiger]

Surprised early next week is not generating a little more discussion.  At least fun to have something to keep an eye on before Thanksgiving! In these parts that's a rare thing....  

From GSP AFD:

A reinforcing short wave is currently depicted by long range models
help deepen a long wave trough over the Central U.S. early next
week. Surface low pressure is expected to develop along the tail end
of a stalled front along the northern Gulf of Mexico and ride
northeastward somewhere into the Southeast US in advance of the
deepening trough over the Central US. This setup can be favorable
for winter weather across portions of the FA (especially mtns).
However, it will still only be mid November and cold enough air for
wintry precipitation can be difficult to come by. As of now
increasing precipitation early next week looks to be mainly in
liquid form except for possibly the highest mountain elevations. The
unsettled weather will likely support below normal temps early next
week with even colder conditions possible in the wake of this storm
system just beyond the current seven day forecast.