Orangeburgwx Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Models are underestimating the strength of the wedge! No way rates will overcome... Too damn early for that, now if this was 6 weeks down the pipe... Different story Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 From the GSP AFD......Well that escalated quickly considering where we were just 10 days ago. Of course it is late October so not all that unusual for the mountains. Sure would have been nice to have this Miller A in January. What a classic set up. There may be just enough cold air at the highest elevations to mix with or turn to snow at times, especially at the beginning and end of the event. Little or no accumulations are expected through Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 How often do AFDs mention getting dry slotted 4-5 days in advance? From RAH... The eventual rainfall amounts will depend on the exact track of the surface low lifting up the coast and how quickly the area get's dry slotted, which would transition rain to increasingly more drizzly in nature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 35 minutes ago, Solak said: How often do AFDs mention getting dry slotted 4-5 days in advance? From RAH... The eventual rainfall amounts will depend on the exact track of the surface low lifting up the coast and how quickly the area get's dry slotted, which would transition rain to increasingly more drizzly in nature. Maybe they’re finally remembering that we always get dry slotted and just getting it out of the way early, instead of finally getting to it as the sun is coming out during the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 23, 2018 Share Posted October 23, 2018 I guess WRAL is expecting it, too. Quite a bit less than what WPC shows. WRAL Weather 54 mins · Rain is in the forecast starting on Friday and lasting into Sunday. Here's a look at the rainfall potential from Friday morning through Sunday evening. It would be a good idea to keep the umbrellas handy through the weekend. @WRALWeather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 Look at that FV3 close the gap and run neck and neck with the big dogs.Ukie actually slipped past the Euro and is king for a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 3 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said: Look at that FV3 close the gap and run neck and neck with the big dogs.Ukie actually slipped past the Euro and is king for a day. FV3 came in 3rd...impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 The NAO is about to go negative for the first time in over 6 months. Not saying it will be predominantly negative for the winter, but al least we know it can still go negative. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 24, 2018 Share Posted October 24, 2018 GOOD ARTICLE. Goes right along with all the new GFS / FV3 chatter. Long for the day it shows a Carolina paste bomb and verefies. To think we may be knocking on the door of an american model with some reputable skill score . It runs 4x a day and we dont have to wait up till 2 am to view the 0z suite. https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/10/noaa-is-about-to-make-some-big-changes-to-its-global-weather-model/?amp=1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 25, 2018 Share Posted October 25, 2018 Looks like Mid January is coming early: https://mobile.twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1055448514736594945 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 Warm Halloween incoming, 73/58 for GSP! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 78/64 here for Halloween :( Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 80/61 for All Hallows Eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 27, 2018 Share Posted October 27, 2018 74/60 for Clayton Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 It's always funny how we have the random cold days and then the days where we kind of want it to be cold (Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas) always seem to be above normal. (or it seems that way) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 9 hours ago, PackGrad05 said: It's always funny how we have the random cold days and then the days where we kind of want it to be cold (Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas) always seem to be above normal. (or it seems that way) The most important thing for me is Halloween is dry. Right now my grid forecast is 74/59 with sunny to partly cloudy. That sounds great to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 34 minutes ago, FallsLake said: The most important thing for me is Halloween is dry. Right now my grid forecast is 74/59 with sunny to partly cloudy. That sounds great to me... I agree with that. It won't ruin my kids' festivities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 near DT Greenville, Halloween forecast is 73/58 (30% chance of rain after midnight) - to me, this is perfect - should be in the mid-60's ToT time several years ago (last year?), I had requests for bottled water instead of candy - never experienced such a warm/humid Halloween Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bhs1975 Posted October 28, 2018 Share Posted October 28, 2018 GOOD ARTICLE. Goes right along with all the new GFS / FV3 chatter. Long for the day it shows a Carolina paste bomb and verefies. To think we may be knocking on the door of an american model with some reputable skill score . It runs 4x a day and we dont have to wait up till 2 am to view the 0z suite. https://arstechnica.com/science/2018/10/noaa-is-about-to-make-some-big-changes-to-its-global-weather-model/?amp=1Nipping at the euro’s heels.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 Another good rain event coming Thursday! Models showing around 1” for the Upstate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 11 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Another good rain event coming Thursday! Models showing around 1” for the Upstate I'll pass, had more than enough rain for awhile. Looks like first half of November to be a little above normal. Not only no freeze, but not even seeing any 30s. Hope the winter does not remember that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 5 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: I'll pass, had more than enough rain for awhile. Looks like first half of November to be a little above normal. Not only no freeze, but not even seeing any 30s. Hope the winter does not remember that! I'll take above average in Nov. instead of Jan. Although I'm sure I'll take it then too though. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted October 29, 2018 Share Posted October 29, 2018 10 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: I'll pass, had more than enough rain for awhile. Looks like first half of November to be a little above normal. Not only no freeze, but not even seeing any 30s. Hope the winter does not remember that! Nino Novembers are usually above normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 11 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: I'll pass, had more than enough rain for awhile. Looks like first half of November to be a little above normal. Not only no freeze, but not even seeing any 30s. Hope the winter does not remember that! Good timing. Rubber bands and sloshing bath water type of stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 28 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Good timing. Rubber bands and sloshing bath water type of stuff. Yeah, and those are such reliable theories too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 Book it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 2 hours ago, Poimen said: Book it! Since when did the EURO become the 384GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 Looks like we might get our -NAO after all https://mobile.twitter.com/jhomenuk/status/1057259343199064064 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersNotComing Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 5 hours ago, Orangeburgwx said: Since when did the EURO become the 384GFS? The 576 Euro is the new 384 GFS. Its going to be a Thanksgiving to remember! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 30, 2018 Share Posted October 30, 2018 1 hour ago, WintersNotComing said: The 576 Euro is the new 384 GFS. Its going to be a Thanksgiving to remember! Where did you even find the 576 EURO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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