Isopycnic Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 9 hours ago, WeatherNC said: Legit signal for the 27-28th, dominant SLP track west of the Apps would introduce SVR probs to the east this time of year with a meso transfer... You had me at SLP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 9 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: J Burns; the only bear who hibernates UNTIL winter! You have to admit though that's a pretty accurate sounding forecast. 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 10 hours ago, frazdaddy said: We await your forcast with great anticipation........ I apologize for ruffling feathers. But the way JB gets bashed on this board and that guy gets a free pass because he used to post here confused me. I can't speak for what he was like years ago, but I've read his stuff for the last few years and his record isn't that good from what I see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 33 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: I apologize for ruffling feathers. But the way JB gets bashed on this board and that guy gets a free pass because he used to post here confused me. I can't speak for what he was like years ago, but I've read his stuff for the last few years and his record isn't that good from what I see. There are many on this forum, including myself that have learned a great deal about forecasting from this man. His patient answers to questions over the years are among the things that have made him revered here. His knowledge of NC CAD and the nuances of the weather it creates give him few peers in that area. The other side of that to us that know some of his personal side is he is a great guy. He loves a good snowstorm as much as the rest of us wienies. As to the bolded, show me some one that has a good one over the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 FV3 still bringing it,inside 10 days now. Deep trough with a healthy storm coming up the coast at day 9-10.582dm height line all the way down in Miami,that's something you see in mid winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 Robert is my personal favorite forecaster. He is incredibly talented and knows the micro-climates of NC/SC/GA very well. Yes he misses badly sometimes but his forecasts put people like Brad Panovich to shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 1 hour ago, frazdaddy said: There are many on this forum, including myself that have learned a great deal about forecasting from this man. His patient answers to questions over the years are among the things that have made him revered here. His knowledge of NC CAD and the nuances of the weather it creates give him few peers in that area. The other side of that to us that know some of his personal side is he is a great guy. He loves a good snowstorm as much as the rest of us wienies. As to the bolded, show me some one that has a good one over the last few years. That's exactly my point. There isn't anyone that can do it. My only problem is people paying for forecasts that are really just an educated guess. I know people put in a lot of time and money into this. I respect that. But in my opinion there are other ways to get people to donate to your cause than outrageous headlines. And I think we know most are guilty of that at some point. I read his forecasts. Along with JB and DT and everyone else. But usually the outcome is somewhere in the middle of the conservative tv Mets and the extreme solutions put out by a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 Give this guy a follow. I'd put him against anyone. He never charges for his forecasts but all donations are greatly appreciated to help him give us the best possible info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 28 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: That's exactly my point. There isn't anyone that can do it. My only problem is people paying for forecasts that are really just an educated guess. I know people put in a lot of time and money into this. I respect that. But in my opinion there are other ways to get people to donate to your cause than outrageous headlines. And I think we know most are guilty of that at some point. I read his forecasts. Along with JB and DT and everyone else. But usually the outcome is somewhere in the middle of the conservative tv Mets and the extreme solutions put out by a few. Do you have a Doctor, A financial analyst, A Stock broker? Same thing. Either way it's their $ and they wouldn't do it if it didn't give them value. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 18, 2018 Share Posted October 18, 2018 10 hours ago, Waiting on snow said: I apologize for ruffling feathers. But the way JB gets bashed on this board and that guy gets a free pass because he used to post here confused me. I can't speak for what he was like years ago, but I've read his stuff for the last few years and his record isn't that good from what I see. I used to enjoy JB and listened to him in the AM on WSJS radio in Winston on my way to work. That was when he stuck to weather instead of politics. I've written him off due to his vehement denials of climate change. His Twitter has degenerated onto one snarky attack after another about the issue. If you want to be treated like a professional you should act like a professional. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 On 10/17/2018 at 6:44 AM, Isopycnic said: You had me at SLP. Maybe we should talk about H5 offline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 12 minutes ago, WeatherNC said: Maybe we should talk about H5 offline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 Just what we need for our mosquito problem.... .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday. Temperatures Sunday night are forecast to drop into the mid 30s across a large part of central North Carolina. This will lead to areas or patches of frost to form across most of the area by daybreak Monday. Maybe we can drop a few more degrees and get that first freeze as well; dewpoints will be in the 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a5ehren Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 On 10/17/2018 at 3:57 PM, frazdaddy said: Do you have a Doctor, A financial analyst, A Stock broker? Same thing. Either way it's their $ and they wouldn't do it if it didn't give them value. Medicine is a science. Financial analysts and stock brokers provide negative value over the long-term. Bad example :-P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 27 minutes ago, a5ehren said: Medicine is a science. Financial analysts and stock brokers provide negative value over the long-term. Bad example :-P Last time I checked so was weather. Still opinions that provide information good or bad. YOU missed the point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 I started following this board back when Robert didn’t have a paid site. Biggest thing I found was that he had ALOT of knowledge for climo in this area. At times that lead him to nail storms and other times miss. Same as everyone else out there. Unfortunately we are all humans and we all have our downfalls and shortcomings. Some choose to put them on display for others to see in their careers while others don’t. There’s a popular saying that 60% of ppl neither like or hate you, 20% like you and 20% dislike you. The same holds true for the people we like or don’t like. There are going to be ppl we don’t like no matter what and ppl we like no matter what. Is what it is, it’s a part of life and doesn’t change who we are or who the other person is. The weather will still be there no matter what and that’s why this board is here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 19, 2018 Share Posted October 19, 2018 On 10/19/2018 at 3:38 PM, GunBlade said: I started following this board back when Robert didn’t have a paid site. Biggest thing I found was that he had ALOT of knowledge for climo in this area. At times that lead him to nail storms and other times miss. Same as everyone else out there. Unfortunately we are all humans and we all have our downfalls and shortcomings. Some choose to put them on display for others to see in their careers while others don’t. There’s a popular saying that 60% of ppl neither like or hate you, 20% like you and 20% dislike you. The same holds true for the people we like or don’t like. There are going to be ppl we don’t like no matter what and ppl we like no matter what. Is what it is, it’s a part of life and doesn’t change who we are or who the other person is. The weather will still be there no matter what and that’s why this board is here. I agree, Robert Gamble is one of the best meteorologist in the area and a big snow wienie. He from time to time may be a bit too excited about he possibilities for the next "Big one". But hey he's human like the rest of us. Let's take this disco to banter before Mr. Burns makes us dust the erasers. 8^) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KChuck Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 17 hours ago, frazdaddy said: Last time I checked so was weather. Still opinions that provide information good or bad. YOU missed the point. Let's face it. When the rubber meets the road, all of this falls into a form of basic statistical analysis. You determine a problem or a desired positive result and look for a cause. In medicine, you have a disease and search for something you see over and over and you determine if there's a connection, and if so, the causation of the repeating observation. Same with finances, science, behavior, fishing and weather. If the fish tend to be biting more when it's cloudy, you'll fish when it's cloudy. If you get spanked for hitting your sister, you'll quit hitting your sister. If it snowed in the past when certain conditions occur, we go weany mode when we see these conditions. None of this results in a perfect prognosis, else cancer would have been cured aa long time ago. And as for Robert, I really appreciate his insights into our weather patterns! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 There's a banter thread for this off-topic chit-chat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Possible (..possible) freeze on Sunday night. I would say the best chances will be those normally cold places like Roxboro and Sanford. .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 350 PM Saturday... Winds will stay up through the morning as the cold dense high pressure builds in from the W. Expect strong subsidence and generally clear skies. Thicknesses start the day nearly 50 m below normal, so despite the sunshine, we should see much below normal highs in the mid 50s to near 60. The surface high settling over the W Piedmont under clear skies with decoupling and diminishing winds Sun night will create ideal radiational cooling conditions, bringing about a concern for a frost or freeze. The low end of statistical guidance does indicate that outlying areas of the Piedmont could see an hour or two of 32-34F, but some modification of the air mass will have taken place by then, and such a duration would not be enough to threaten a killing freeze. Will maintain a mention of patchy frost over much of the Piedmont and adjacent Sandhills, but will hold off on any sort of freeze watch at this time, given the uncertainty and that the cold temps are still 36 hours away. -GIH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 We need whatever we can get Falls to kill these 'skeeters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 49 minutes ago, CaryWx said: We need whatever we can get Falls to kill these 'skeeters. We'll get it eventually. A good frost will also do the job as well. Lets see how tomorrow night goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 Forecast for me tomorrow is 64/40... Holy crap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 20, 2018 Share Posted October 20, 2018 On 10/16/2018 at 9:26 PM, WeatherNC said: Legit signal for the 27-28th, dominant SLP track west of the Apps would introduce SVR probs to the east this time of year with a meso transfer... The system is still there, but in recent model runs it appears to be a coastal runner instead of inland/Apps track, lessening the severe threat. Still a week out, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 There's a banter thread for this off-topic chit-chat. No joke. Hard to weed through the back and back. Take it to the banter. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted October 21, 2018 Share Posted October 21, 2018 Euro and EPS going with the deep trough the FV3 has been showing for a week,starting day 6-7.Don't know about a storm mixed signals on that. 582 dm line in the Miami area again,someone better go chop a load of firewood soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 If this were winter, that would be so sexy Looks to be in the low 40s for most of us Friday, if the setup holds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 9 minutes ago, JoshM said: If this were winter, that would be so sexy Looks to be in the low 40s for most of us Friday, if the setup holds. HOW MUCH FOR RDU???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 6 hours ago, JoshM said: If this were winter, that would be so sexy Looks to be in the low 40s for most of us Friday, if the setup holds. Models are underestimating the strength of the wedge! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 22, 2018 Share Posted October 22, 2018 From RAH : .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 355 AM Monday... A Cold Air Damming (CAD) event along with an east coast storm system appears likely by late week into next weekend. The polar and subtropical jets are forecast to generally phase late week along the eastern United States. This allows the potential for a storm to develop along the SE Coast as the parent mid/upper level shortwave trough deepens, with a negative tilt trough noted in some models. The most recent suite of guidance is coming into better agreement in the phasing of the jets, allowing a stronger east coast system to take shape off the SC/NC coast late Friday or Friday night, yet still having timing issues on the low deepening off the SC/NC coast. Since there continues to be spread of track and timing differences, we will continue a rather low confidence forecast for timing of rain. Although it appears likely a system will affect the region with a chilly rain sometime Friday into Saturday or Sunday. With a chilly parent surface high pressure expected to build down the eastern seaboard ahead of the developing storm late week, the system will have a winter look and feel to it! Expect CAD to occur with rain, drizzle, and fog and a chilly NE wind - which will likely keep daytime highs in the 40s for some areas in the CAD region Friday or Saturday, or both days. These readings would be 15- 25 degrees colder than normal (if this occurs) - a stark contrast to the hot early part of October. Man, straight from AC to heat this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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