Carvers Gap Posted October 3, 2018 Share Posted October 3, 2018 42 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: This is what happens when you get the 591dm-594dm death ridge parked over you for 30 days.And this is why I always keep my eyes open for it in the summer,it also directs any hurricanes this way as well..Hot month no doubt but July and August both ran 0+2 with much lower heights and more rain chances. Sorry to say but I think we got at least 8-10 more days of it,very stubborn to move lately. Great find. Going to borrow this for the TN forum. For us in NE TN, September was hotter than August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted October 7, 2018 Share Posted October 7, 2018 Here is the latest 7-day precipitation forecast across the lower 48. There are ongoing heavy rain concerns across the middle of the nation, followed by newly named Tropical Storm Michael in the East and remnant tropical moisture into the West from Hurricane Sergio in the ePac. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 The FV3 has been adamant about bringing a pretty deep trough down in the longer range(after day 10) for about 4 or 5 runs in a row now. Be a good test to see if this model is legit or just noise.if right it might go straight to winter for a bit. Just something to observe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 Today may qualify as the first Cold Rain of the season. Gonna be a wet winter no doubt with weak el nino. Thanks to Florence and Michael already out of the gate warp speed. Sure Brick is gonna love all these cold drizzle days while we chase snow all winter lol. The leafs are runing over 2 weeks behind schedule espeacilly in mtns. Ill be up next weekend, so hopefully the cool wx this week post Monday can flip the switch real quick. We usually hit peak Halloween day into the first week of November here. Think ours will be late as well. The Mtns should already be passing their peak mid October and like all of us green, thanks to the record long lasting warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 First snow game of the season today. Broncos verse Rams. Just another sign winter isnt to far down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted October 14, 2018 Share Posted October 14, 2018 11 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said: The FV3 has been adamant about bringing a pretty deep trough down in the longer range(after day 10) for about 4 or 5 runs in a row now. Be a good test to see if this model is legit or just noise.if right it might go straight to winter for a bit. Just something to observe. Yes. I want to see a lot of this during the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 I’m starting to get anxious now. Robert throwing around 09/10 as potential analog for this winter. I’ll cash out now please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 13 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: I’m starting to get anxious now. Robert throwing around 09/10 as potential analog for this winter. I’ll cash out now please. You and me both... Got 8.5" that winter in one storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 How does winter 1995-1996 sound as an analog? This past summer has seemed to follow a pattern similar to the summer of 1995. But, again, it could be the early morning and lack of caffeine talking... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 10 hours ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: I’m starting to get anxious now. Robert throwing around 09/10 as potential analog for this winter. I’ll cash out now please. That was a good little read. Lot to look forward to where things stand now Oct 16. As the next 4-6 weeks unfold we should see the players lining up. Lets just hope the configuration ends up being in the right spots. Once the table is set, we can start passing around the entrees and eat. See if the new /soon to be GFS is onto something with this late month storm signal. Nice ice storm in the cad areas. But its not unusual to get some type of big wx event/storm on the eastern seaboard late October. Seems every 2-3 years now we are in a cycle that produces a news maker wx event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 Indices would support a cold/stormy late October. PNA - Goes positive AO - Goes negative NAO - Goes negative (could it really happen after 6 months positive?) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 38 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Indices would support a cold/stormy late October. PNA - Goes positive AO - Goes negative NAO - Goes negative (could it really happen after 6 months positive?) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml Now only if we got that to hold Dec -March . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 7 hours ago, Suncat said: How does winter 1995-1996 sound as an analog? This past summer has seemed to follow a pattern similar to the summer of 1995. But, again, it could be the early morning and lack of caffeine talking... I remember 95 summer having much more intense heat. There was a major heat wave in the Midwest that year, with Chicago having a bad one. I think there were higher heights with waves that year than this and it was a much more active tropical season, multiple major canes. Tropical storm Jerry set records in the upstate for rainfall, over 12 inches in 24 hours in late August at GSP. I remember having an early dismissal from school in early Nov from sleet, kinda early for that kind of thing in the upstate. Overall, 95-96 was my probably the best wall to wall cold in the upstate in my lifetime, and my favorite winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 Euro shows a legit gulf low with a strong wedging high in place on days 9/10, too bad its late October! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 Look over rowan county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 2 hours ago, Queencitywx said: Look over rowan county. And so it begins... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 21 hours ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: I’m starting to get anxious now. Robert throwing around 09/10 as potential analog for this winter. I’ll cash out now please. Of course he is. He has to get paid subscribers. He seems to be a favorite here in the south but he uses up more diapers than Joe Bustardi in the winter! But eventually he has to be right, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckethead Posted October 16, 2018 Share Posted October 16, 2018 40 minutes ago, Waiting on snow said: Of course he is. He has to get paid subscribers. He seems to be a favorite here in the south but he uses up more diapers than Joe Bustardi in the winter! But eventually he has to be right, right? Robert was one of the best posters on here for years and developed a reputation that allows him to charge for his forecasting. I've seen him have far more great calls than busts over the years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueRidgeFolklore Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 33 minutes ago, Buckethead said: Robert was one of the best posters on here for years and developed a reputation that allows him to charge for his forecasting. I've seen him have far more great calls than busts over the years. Exactly my thoughts. There are plenty of guys that someone could go after but Robert isn't of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 Here is my first winter forecast for the Piedmont. 60 days of bitching 30 days of model excitement Less than 24 hours total with snow actually falling. A snowfall rate of 1" per six hours if it is steady, which it will not be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 1 hour ago, jburns said: Here is my first winter forecast for the Piedmont. 60 days of bitching 30 days of model excitement Less than 24 hours total with snow actually falling. A snowfall rate of 1" per six hours if it is steady, which it will not be. Minimum 64 “ rates will overcome “ comments, per winter month! (D,J,F) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 2 hours ago, Waiting on snow said: Of course he is. He has to get paid subscribers. He seems to be a favorite here in the south but he uses up more diapers than Joe Bustardi in the winter! But eventually he has to be right, right? Whoa, wait a minute. Robert is a legend on this board and many of us still value his thoughts. I take offence to anyone who puts him down. If you knew his story, you would never have said those ugly words. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherNC Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 Legit signal for the 27-28th, dominant SLP track west of the Apps would introduce SVR probs to the east this time of year with a meso transfer... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Waiting on snow Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 51 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said: Whoa, wait a minute. Robert is a legend on this board and many of us still value his thoughts. I take offence to anyone who puts him down. If you knew his story, you would never have said those ugly words. I didn't say he wasn't good. Long range weather forecasting is nowhere close to being accurate and to hype it to get paying subscribers who don't know better is not right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 4 hours ago, Waiting on snow said: Of course he is. He has to get paid subscribers. He seems to be a favorite here in the south but he uses up more diapers than Joe Bustardi in the winter! But eventually he has to be right, right? We await your forcast with great anticipation........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 1 hour ago, WeatherNC said: Legit signal for the 27-28th, dominant SLP track west of the Apps would introduce SVR probs to the east this time of year with a meso transfer... Stop teasing me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 2 hours ago, jburns said: Here is my first winter forecast for the Piedmont. 60 days of bitching 30 days of model excitement Less than 24 hours total with snow actually falling. A snowfall rate of 1" per six hours if it is steady, which it will not be. Well hello grumpy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 35 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: Well hello grumpy J Burns; the only bear who hibernates UNTIL winter! You have to admit though that's a pretty accurate sounding forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 3 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: Minimum 64 “ rates will overcome “ comments, per winter month! (D,J,F) That is true so I didn't think it needed to be said. The problem around these parts is we rarely get those kind of rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted October 17, 2018 Share Posted October 17, 2018 Almost model hugging time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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