Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

[kvegas-wx]

I cannot deal.  This summer hasnt been extreme in any regards.  Just overwhelmingly miserable and annoying.  And to think the models want to drag this through Sept is a bit unnerving.  What do you wanna bet we hop on the rain train in Oct with tropical wave after wave and it wipes out the best part of the year around here.  

I can hear JB talking about the rubber band snapping already.  Maybe that means we all move to Kamchatka for Dec-Feb?  One can hope.

[Orangeburgwx]

6 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

I cannot deal.  This summer hasnt been extreme in any regards.  Just overwhelmingly miserable and annoying.  And to think the models want to drag this through Sept is a bit unnerving.  What do you wanna bet we hop on the rain train in Oct with tropical wave after wave and it wipes out the best part of the year around here.  

I can hear JB talking about the rubber band snapping already.  Maybe that means we all move to Kamchatka for Dec-Feb?  One can hope.

Well, on the bright side, it's football season (and my Browns will sweep your Bengals this year)

[kvegas-wx]

1 hour ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Well, on the bright side, it's football season (and my Browns will sweep your Bengals this year)

Not even worth the banter, but in weather terms, this would be like saying a dust devil has a chance against Hurricane Katrina.  Best wishes in Week 1 though!  :-)

[Iceagewhereartthou]

On 8/29/2018 at 3:02 PM, NC_hailstorm said:

The 591-594 dm death ridge holding strong thru day 10 on the latest Euro runs.

Gotta love it.

Each of the last two GFS runs show a significant cool front pushing south from the north central part of the country down to the SE starting around the 13th. The 18z never quite gets it here, but it is definitely there. The 0z pushes lots of greens all the way to the gulf west of the apps. Darn thing doesn't make it east of the mtns with the nighttime lows, but cools daytime highs into the 60s for many. As we've said, it's the long range GFS, so specifics are pointless, but it can be good at indicating patterns or changes; let's see how it trends.

 

[NC_hailstorm]

14 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said:

Each of the last two GFS runs show a significant cool front pushing south from the north central part of the country down to the SE starting around the 13th. The 18z never quite gets it here, but it is definitely there. The 0z pushes lots of greens all the way to the gulf west of the apps. Darn thing doesn't make it east of the mtns with the nighttime lows, but cools daytime highs into the 60s for many. As we've said, it's the long range GFS, so specifics are pointless, but it can be good at indicating patterns or changes; let's see how it trends.

 

Euro has the 594dm death ridge squarely on NC/SC for the next 4-5 days.Charlotte hit 93 yesterday and Columbia hit 96,I think we can match them temps this week.Good news is the heights back off after that but not a cool pattern though,better chance for a front to get closer probably.Euro pushes the 594 death ridge out in the Atlantic and tries to steer a hurricane up the eastern seaboard at day 9-10.

[Orangeburgwx]

4 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Euro has the 594dm death ridge squarely on NC/SC for the next 4-5 days.Charlotte hit 93 yesterday and Columbia hit 96,I think we can match them temps this week.Good news is the heights back off after that but not a cool pattern though,better chance for a front to get closer probably.Euro pushes the 594 death ridge out in the Atlantic and tries to steer a hurricane up the eastern seaboard at day 9-10.

I was in Columbia for the Carolina-Coastal game... Damn temp hit 100

[SN_Lover]

The tale of 2 seasons on the GFS  

[yotaman]

70 degree dew points would be nice at this point.

[WinstonSalemArlington]

The air temperature barely touches 90 if at all, but I have rarely felt it feel so oppressive in the Triad 

[Brick Tamland]

Mowed the grass and worked in the yard for two hours this morning. It felt like a wet blanket was on my back. Nasty heat and humidity. If the rest of the month is going to be like this, I hope that was the last time I have to mow the lawn until spring.

[cbmclean]

On 9/2/2018 at 3:59 PM, NC_hailstorm said:

Euro has the 594dm death ridge squarely on NC/SC for the next 4-5 days.Charlotte hit 93 yesterday and Columbia hit 96,I think we can match them temps this week.Good news is the heights back off after that but not a cool pattern though,better chance for a front to get closer probably.Euro pushes the 594 death ridge out in the Atlantic and tries to steer a hurricane up the eastern seaboard at day 9-10.

Trying to look on the bright side, think of how miserable it would be if this ridge had set up shop in July.  Likewise I would rather this happen now rather than in October.  Going to the farm to pick out a pumpkin was less fun last year in the mid 80's with high humidity.

[FallsLake]

The LR models are depressing if you're looking for a break in the heat and humidity. All the major models show a huge ridge holding over the eastern US for at least the next 10 days. If you like tropical storms this pattern is what you want. But I'll take cool/dry weather over an incoming hurricane any day.       

[NC_hailstorm]

Euro model still dominates the forecast performance with the Ukie 2nd as usual.  http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS_vsdb/      (click height on the left}

The new FV3GFS is actually running 2nd but its still in experimental mode.Starting early next year the GFS will get this upgrade and should be a lot better.

"The next generation of GFS, FV3 GFS, is currently undergoing evaluation and the plan is to put it into production in Q2FY19 (January to March, 2019) as GFS v15.0. This next version of GFS represents a major change from the existing version."

 

 

[NC_hailstorm]

Charlotte hit 94 today,Columbia hit 97.Forecasts were off 3-5 degrees too cool as the death ridge hammers down.

Today was probably the hottest,tomorrow might get warm but heights ease back on the Euro with better precip chances.Still no cool pattern but it's better than this death ridge parked right over us.

Carry on.

[Iceagewhereartthou]

5 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Charlotte hit 94 today,Columbia hit 97.Forecasts were off 3-5 degrees too cool as the death ridge hammers down.

Today was probably the hottest,tomorrow might get warm but heights ease back on the Euro with better precip chances.Still no cool pattern but it's better than this death ridge parked right over us.

Carry on.

Yeah, GSP hit 88 today. It was 89 yesterday, breaking 10 consecutive days of 90+ , by far the longest streak this summer. This weather sucks royally! I can take it better now I guess, just knowing it won't last forever but lingering summers are hard to take; all those visions of fall in my head! GFS cool down keeps getting pushed back (of course), now it looks like a small cool down after tomorrow, but after the 20th until we resemble normal, let alone any bona fide fall front. That front we had in August may be the weather we see till sometime in October.

Just hope accuweather isn't right; won't see my first 40s until 10/12, and second until 11/7, and no hard freeze until 12/3. 

BTW, both CAE and CLT continue to have a noticeably hotter summer than GSP. CAE normally does but CLT is usually closer to GSP.

[Iceagewhereartthou]

GFS continues to show a cool down around 24/25th, even showing some 50s and even 40s at night. I don't believe it for a sec, it's been showing 12 day cool downs all month and not one has even come close to happening. If it doesn't, this may go down as the first September I ever remember without even a hint of Fall. How miserable that would be! Surely there is at least one day of 70s/50s for non mtns, somewhere!

[Powerball]

The 12z GFS doesn't show 850mb temps getting below 16*C the entire run. 

[NC_hailstorm]

Maybe the light at the end of the tunnel today,Euro has lower heights,trough setting up over the east at day 8 lasting through day 10.591dm death ridge hangs tough through day 7 before it gets here  though.

The trough trended a bit stronger today vs yesterday so we'll see.

[Met1985]

1 hour ago, NC_hailstorm said:

Maybe the light at the end of the tunnel today,Euro has lower heights,trough setting up over the east at day 8 lasting through day 10.591dm death ridge hangs tough through day 7 before it gets here  though.

The trough trended a bit stronger today vs yesterday so we'll see.

Yeah the Euro has been bumping up heights in the West the past few runs and digging the trough a bit more in the east. Let's get that look under 5 days and see how it goes.

[NCSNOW]

12 hours ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah the Euro has been bumping up heights in the West the past few runs and digging the trough a bit more in the east. Let's get that look under 5 days and see how it goes.

Still steady as she goes. Looks like by the end of next week into the weekend we can all turn off the ACs and enjoy some specatucular weather. low 70s/50 with crashing dewpoints is gonna feel great. The guys west of apps should feel it first of course, so they are approaching the 5 day benchmark. Euro is great around 120 mark as far as consistency usually. I start watching it day 7 and if it holds a look till day 5, then it s usually very dependable espeacilly at 5H.

 

A good exercise is to watch the NEW GFS from day 4 to 7 and see if its improved over the garbage we use now. I know for Florence track it was way better than the current gfs mid range. day 4-7. Be great to get another dependable mid range model

[Solak]

Could be a pretty soggy Thursday, per RAH:

A wave of low pressure is 
expected to track ENE across NC, along the front Thursday into 
Thursday night. This will bring a widespread soaking with numerous 
showers and scattered thunderstorms across central NC Thursday into 
Thursday night, with QPF on the order of 1 to locally 2 inches. 

[NC_hailstorm]

Well the Euro and FV3 look pretty close at day 9-10 but hoping this isn't another false start though.

Strong heights north of Alaska moving over the arctic to go along with a decent Aleutian low,if that's right things will eventually shuffle but it might take a while.

[NCSNOW]

I hope this is the last week we have to report on the world famous "NC_hailstorm" 594 death ridge. If its on its way out after this week,its going out with a bang. October thru March are undoubtedly the best 6 month stretch of weather for most of us when compared to the other 6 month stretch. So lets hope we dont loose more than 1 week of it to a summer hangover that doesnt want to go away. Amazed to see the hot weather grasses around here still flush. The crab and bermuda usually are in warp speed mode toward dormancy by now. 

[cbmclean]

Meanwhile, the flipside to our eternal ridge/warmth is eternal trough/cold in the upper Midwest/Canadian prairies.

 

https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blogs/anderson/weekly-update-on-the-long-range-weather-pattern/70006203

[Orangeburgwx]

Winter will be brutal for us if this pattern repeats... Hot (for winter standards) and dry 

[Solak]

Another backdoor cold front this coming weekend!

The passage of the front will however 
provide a modest cool down, making it not quite as hot, decreasing 
temperature departures to +6 to + 10 degrees F, still well above 
normal! 

[FallsLake]

33 minutes ago, Solak said:

Another backdoor cold front this coming weekend!

The passage of the front will however 
provide a modest cool down, making it not quite as hot, decreasing 
temperature departures to +6 to + 10 degrees F, still well above 
normal! 

Sad. Our average high is 77 and the low 56. After a cold front we can't even get to average. 

[Solak]

Cold front cancel.

Given the 
strength of the mid and upper level ridge across the area, would be 
highly suspicious of any forecast guidance that readily pushes the 
front south through the area, with the front much more likely to 
stall out and eventually wash out invof the forecast area over the 
course of the weekend. 

[Powerball]

3 hours ago, Solak said:

Cold front cancel.

Given the 
strength of the mid and upper level ridge across the area, would be 
highly suspicious of any forecast guidance that readily pushes the 
front south through the area, with the front much more likely to 
stall out and eventually wash out invof the forecast area over the 
course of the weekend. 

Was there ever a chance? 

[NC_hailstorm]

On ‎9‎/‎29‎/‎2018 at 9:31 AM, NCSNOW said:

I hope this is the last week we have to report on the world famous "NC_hailstorm" 594 death ridge. If its on its way out after this week,its going out with a bang. October thru March are undoubtedly the best 6 month stretch of weather for most of us when compared to the other 6 month stretch. So lets hope we dont loose more than 1 week of it to a summer hangover that doesnt want to go away. Amazed to see the hot weather grasses around here still flush. The crab and bermuda usually are in warp speed mode toward dormancy by now. 

This is what happens when you get the 591dm-594dm death ridge parked over you for 30 days.And this is why I always keep my eyes open for it in the summer,it also directs any hurricanes this way as well..Hot month no doubt but July and August both ran 0+2 with much lower heights and more rain chances.

Sorry to say but I think we got at least 8-10 more days of it,very stubborn to move lately.