lj0109 Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 1 hour ago, NattyBo said: Hi all, from the DC area...trying to figure out how badly all this rain is going to impact my only vacation of the year, in Emerald Isle. I'm already figuring the weekend to be a total washout. Any hope for the week? Sorry for the IMBY-ish type question. I wouldn't say it will be a total washout. There will certainly be some times of sun, especially in the mornings next week before the heating of the day really gets cranking and storms get going. PWATs will be 2+ inches due fetch out of the tropics most of next week so when it does rain, places will get a good soaking for sure! Enjoy vacation! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 On 7/18/2018 at 9:49 PM, yotaman said: And what exactly does that mean to the layman? The sunspot level(spotless days)and solar flux have no correlation with climate or the weather if you look at data.Where people are uninformed is you have to look at the solar wind level,EEP levels(energetic electron precipitation)where you are in the 11 year solar cycle(ascending,descending,max,min)and the QBO level. Basically a Solar/QBO signal,this has been researched and been somewhat accurate in my opinion.There's also ENSO that can influence the climate too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 21 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: The sunspot level(spotless days)and solar flux have no correlation with climate or the weather if you look at data.Where people are uninformed is you have to look at the solar wind level,EEP levels(energetic electron precipitation)where you are in the 11 year solar cycle(ascending,descending,max,min)and the QBO level. Basically a Solar/QBO signal,this has been researched and been somewhat accurate in my opinion.There's also ENSO that can influence the climate too So, if we wanted the best combo for a cold and snowy winter, what would it look like [ex: solar wind below X, EEP levels at Y, Z years into the Solar Cycle (ascending? descending? max? min?), and + or - QBO (and is the QBO rising or falling?) + what ENSO configuration]? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 44 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: So, if we wanted the best combo for a cold and snowy winter, what would it look like [ex: solar wind below X, EEP levels at Y, Z years into the Solar Cycle (ascending? descending? max? min?), and + or - QBO (and is the QBO rising or falling?) + what ENSO configuration]? Just looking at 09-10 and 10-11 winters,my best guess is you want the solar wind averaging less than 400 and EEP 5 and lower.Them 2 winters were very low in these categories.Also you want to be in solar min or the ascending phase for less solar wind and EEP.The other phases produce more coronal holes and them make a lot more solar wind and EEP.Declining phase is the worst,solar max has a weak signal. Obviously you want the QBO negative,gotta have that.It's quite negative now but these things flip every 12-18 months sometimes shorter so just have to observe. Still learning and observing myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyBo Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 2 hours ago, lj0109 said: I wouldn't say it will be a total washout. There will certainly be some times of sun, especially in the mornings next week before the heating of the day really gets cranking and storms get going. PWATs will be 2+ inches due fetch out of the tropics most of next week so when it does rain, places will get a good soaking for sure! Enjoy vacation! Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 6 hours ago, NattyBo said: Hi all, from the DC area...trying to figure out how badly all this rain is going to impact my only vacation of the year, in Emerald Isle. I'm already figuring the weekend to be a total washout. Any hope for the week? Sorry for the IMBY-ish type question. The upside is you might get a chance to see a waterspout or two.....I kinda like stormy beach weather.....with onshore flows its really hit and miss but it will be mostly cloudy and you really need to be careful if you go in the water, rip currents have killed quite a few people this summer again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 8 hours ago, Brick Tamland said: Not looking forward to a whole week of rain. Talk about spoiling summer. Back in Waycross for vacation. We’ve had storms every day since I’ve arrived on July 12th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 21, 2018 Share Posted July 21, 2018 21 hours ago, metalicwx366 said: Back in Waycross for vacation. We’ve had storms every day since I’ve arrived on July 12th. Waycross and vacation, never, ever , belong in the same sentence! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 The GFS continues to pound NC and the SE in general with rain the next few weeks.....6"+ for most of NC on almost every run for the last 7-10 runs, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 22, 2018 Share Posted July 22, 2018 32 minutes ago, downeastnc said: The GFS continues to pound NC and the SE in general with rain the next few weeks.....6"+ for most of NC on almost every run for the last 7-10 runs, That would be wonderful for areas in a drought (..like me). Also this will limit the heat. We've reached our highest average temperatures for the year. A rainy period now will keep us below the averages. **we're now heading (slowly) downwards on average temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 I still think the rain totals on the models for this week are overdone here. I know in winter everyone says cut the precip totals in half compared to what the models show. We just don't get widespread rain events here in summer. The rain mostly comes from storms and showers that are very scattered and isolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 23, 2018 Share Posted July 23, 2018 2 hours ago, Brick Tamland said: I still think the rain totals on the models for this week are overdone here. I know in winter everyone says cut the precip totals in half compared to what the models show. We just don't get widespread rain events here in summer. The rain mostly comes from storms and showers that are very scattered and isolated. Those totals are still possible, but as you stated it's from storms; in which there will be varying amounts of winners and losers. The NAM seems to show this better than the GFS. BUT the NAM cannot know exactly where these storms develop. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=seus&pkg=apcpn&runtime=2018072312&fh=84 **then switch to GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted July 26, 2018 Share Posted July 26, 2018 No 594dm death ridge at least for the next 10 days.Heighs still look low giving better chances for precip and slightly cooler temps. 10 day Euro precip,most of this falls after day 4 in central/western parts of NC/SC/GA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 NWS RaleighVerified account @NWSRaleigh 4m4 minutes ago Another wet pattern is shaping up over the next week across central #NCwx. With daily chances for showers/storms, rainfall accumulation amounts will likely average 2 - 4" over the next 7 days, with higher amounts likely closer to the #SCwx state boundary. http://www.weather.gov/rah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted July 27, 2018 Share Posted July 27, 2018 So ,, Monsoon Season thus continues? Synopsis... a front will remain west of the area through the weekend into early next week. As a result, humid and unstable conditions will continue with a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. The coverage of storms will likely increase the first part of next week as upper level impulses move across the area. Flow through much of the column is from the SW, which is keeping pwats over 2 inches, highest near the coast, which combined with latest rap analyzed MLCAPE of 2500-3000 j/kg has allowed scattered tstms to develop across the area well into next week. Welcome to the SouthEastern States Rainy Season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel17 Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 GFS shows no break in these oppressive dew points through the middle of next month. Oh, what I would do for some fall air this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 NWS RaleighVerified account @NWSRaleigh 1h1 hour ago The @NWSWPC is forecasting a general average of 2 to 3 inches of rain across central NC for today through Friday night. Much greater localized amounts can be expected. #ncwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted July 30, 2018 Share Posted July 30, 2018 11 hours ago, Solak said: NWS RaleighVerified account @NWSRaleigh 1h1 hour ago The @NWSWPC is forecasting a general average of 2 to 3 inches of rain across central NC for today through Friday night. Much greater localized amounts can be expected. #ncwx Been Huffin & puffin to blow some of this off the Coast up ya'lls way! J/K.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted August 9, 2018 Share Posted August 9, 2018 Still no 594dm death ridges for at least 10 days heights still look low.Precip chances won't go away but there will be 2-3 day breaks with lesser chances.High humidity will be the main issue with all this water in the ground. All drought in NC and SC gone except for a very small spot SE of CLT which is hard to believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 I'm starting to look for any signs of a cool down in the LR models. Don't see any right now (for the SE), but this is really early; basically like looking for snow storms in mid November. But, there is signs of a cool down in the NW US and SW Canada. Places like Montana are usually the first to see ligament Fall cold fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 6 minutes ago, FallsLake said: I'm starting to look for any signs of a cool down in the LR models. Don't see any right now (for the SE), but this is really early; basically like looking for snow storms in mid November. But, there is signs of a cool down in the NW US and SW Canada. Places like Montana are usually the first to see ligament Fall cold fronts. Unfortunately, those ligament early fall fronts, have a tendon to get stuck in the mountains, leaving us inflamed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 3 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Unfortunately, those ligament early fall fronts, have a tendon to get stuck in the mountains, leaving us inflamed. Lol...yeah I need to watch my spelling during quick post between meetings. Well actually, I need to watch it every time I post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted August 13, 2018 Share Posted August 13, 2018 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: Lol...yeah I need to watch my spelling during quick post between meetings. Well actually, I need to watch it every time I post. Oh I don't know, most of our snow chances are more ligament than legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 14, 2018 Share Posted August 14, 2018 7 hours ago, frazdaddy said: Oh I don't know, most of our snow chances are more ligament than legit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted August 14, 2018 Share Posted August 14, 2018 Looking at the gfs Verbatim, no snow for at least 5 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel17 Posted August 14, 2018 Share Posted August 14, 2018 First signs on the models of drier air making it over the mountains. I would take dew points in the 50s for the end of August or early September and be happy with it. Unfortunately only appears to be fleeting and I expect it to not quite make it a week from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted August 14, 2018 Share Posted August 14, 2018 The long range GFS runs have been showing a lot of extremes lately. Obviously that's normal but it seems even more than normal; like lower 80s one run and then 102 the next run for the same time frame. I imagine this high variability, aside from being the long range GFS, is due to the first real changes in air masses for the season. It has been pretty consistent with bringing those colder dryer numbers to the NW (even some readings in the 20s), but it is struggling mightily with how far east and south it gets. That will be the case for awhile yet, but summer's days are numbered! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 14, 2018 Share Posted August 14, 2018 23 hours ago, frazdaddy said: Oh I don't know, most of our snow chances are more ligament than legit I hope we don't have another torn NAO this winter. That is a season-ending condition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted August 14, 2018 Share Posted August 14, 2018 1 hour ago, jburns said: I hope we don't have another torn NAO this winter. That is a season-ending condition. lol, I see what you did there. It was cold enough last year that we lost all of the big old Pampas grass clumps that lined the driveway entrance. Not sure I've ever seen that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted August 16, 2018 Share Posted August 16, 2018 Looks like widespread 50s for lows in North Carolina/Virginia by the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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