FallsLake Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 12 hours ago, downeastnc said: It varies quite a bit run to run.....could be a pretty nice cool shot right after the 4th.....I hope it pans out as I am at the river for the week after the 4th and mid 80's and some clouds are way better than mid 90's and sun. Anything under 90 is a win this time of year. I'm heading to the outer banks the middle of July. Hoping for some nice weather. Related to that, the GFS has been constantly showing below temps for the outer banks. (but)Other models don't show this detail. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=seus&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2018062812&fh=84 Move backwards and forwards in time to see the anomaly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 The general wet pattern over the SE has been impressive. It looks to continue. I know parts of the upper SE have not had as much rain, but after a 5-7 day stretch, chances should pick up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: The general wet pattern over the SE has been impressive. It looks to continue. I know parts of the upper SE have not had as much rain, but after a 5-7 day stretch, chances should pick up again. Hey buddy, hope all is well. We seem to be right on that imaginary line. I can hear the thunder but it's mostly wide right with the rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 1 hour ago, frazdaddy said: Hey buddy, hope all is well. We seem to be right on that imaginary line. I can hear the thunder but it's mostly wide right with the rain. Hey man, yeah things are going well. Hope you're having a good summer so far. Same here. We had a doozy a week ago. Neighbor's tree smashed our trampoline, but we got it cleaned up. Not much since then. Definitely heard a lot of thunder though! I hope we get into a pattern where we start to get some late evening/early nighttime storms. Those are the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted July 3, 2018 Share Posted July 3, 2018 Nothing really special about the rain by the way. Just really something, the whole Hemisphere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 3, 2018 Share Posted July 3, 2018 Nino-ing through the Arctic: The snow is being dispersed unequivocally. Cloud seeding and sublimation being captured rapidly.... Too deep to make it back in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted July 3, 2018 Share Posted July 3, 2018 3 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Nino-ing through the Arctic: The snow is being dispersed unequivocally. Cloud seeding and sublimation being captured rapidly.... Too deep to make it back in time. That’s what she said!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted July 4, 2018 Share Posted July 4, 2018 12 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Nino-ing through the Arctic: The snow is being dispersed unequivocally. Cloud seeding and sublimation being captured rapidly.... Too deep to make it back in time. I see what you did there. Well played. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 5, 2018 Share Posted July 5, 2018 It seems like when we get something good this time of year, we end up having to pay for it: Temperatures will be much below normal on Saturday with low-level thickness values near 1390m near the VA border, H8 temps below 15C, and a fair amount of cloudiness. Highs will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Much more sunshine on Sunday will lead to a nice weather day in most locations with highs in the lower to mid 80s and dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Highs moderate into the upper 80s to lower 90s for Monday and Tuesday. The warming trend continues for Wednesday and Thursday. Opted to stay below WPC guidance which includes a high of 100 for Thursday and stick with highs in the lower to mid 90s for now. -Blaes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 7, 2018 Share Posted July 7, 2018 On 7/5/2018 at 4:38 PM, FallsLake said: It seems like when we get something good this time of year, we end up having to pay for it: Temperatures will be much below normal on Saturday with low-level thickness values near 1390m near the VA border, H8 temps below 15C, and a fair amount of cloudiness. Highs will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Much more sunshine on Sunday will lead to a nice weather day in most locations with highs in the lower to mid 80s and dewpoints in the upper 50s to mid 60s. Highs moderate into the upper 80s to lower 90s for Monday and Tuesday. The warming trend continues for Wednesday and Thursday. Opted to stay below WPC guidance which includes a high of 100 for Thursday and stick with highs in the lower to mid 90s for now. -Blaes Quoting my own post to make the point that models are bad all year long. Just a couple days back it was looking like we could see a triple digit threat the end of this upcoming week. Now the models have backed off to the point we may see below normal temps (..lots of 80s for highs). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted July 12, 2018 Share Posted July 12, 2018 Sure hope the long range GFS is correct. It indicates that there will be a large percentage of the next two weeks at or below normal with temps. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2018071212&fh=6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted July 13, 2018 Share Posted July 13, 2018 Don't see any 594dm death ridges for the next 10 days so that's the main thing for me.Looks like some lower heights and better rainfall chances coming around day 5 -10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel17 Posted July 14, 2018 Share Posted July 14, 2018 Looks to be humid and cooler. I will gladly take the cooler weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted July 15, 2018 Share Posted July 15, 2018 Not a single day with a high of 90 or higher IMBY on the 06Z GFS, many days where upper 70's low 80's.....thats pretty crazy for mid to late July average high is 90/91 here this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted July 15, 2018 Share Posted July 15, 2018 1 hour ago, downeastnc said: Not a single day with a high of 90 or higher IMBY on the 06Z GFS, many days where upper 70's low 80's.....thats pretty crazy for mid to late July average high is 90/91 here this time of year. @DownEastnc, I watched a video that says in essence, We are entering "Phase #6" and Well be in a "cool period"? for the next 60 Days or so? Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted July 15, 2018 Share Posted July 15, 2018 5 hours ago, SENC said: @DownEastnc, I watched a video that says in essence, We are entering "Phase #6" and Well be in a "cool period"? for the next 60 Days or so? Thoughts? That would be awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 Euro day 7 totals.GFS is a bit more wetter as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted July 18, 2018 Share Posted July 18, 2018 Solar wind coming down the last 3 or 4 weeks after spiking up around 700 a few times in April and May,running around 280-450 or so lately.Big drop in the EEP levels too in the same time frame going from 9 to about 5 now. QBO still ticking negative at -28.45 Just some observations I'm watching but carry on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 3 hours ago, NC_hailstorm said: Solar wind coming down the last 3 or 4 weeks after spiking up around 700 a few times in April and May,running around 280-450 or so lately.Big drop in the EEP levels too in the same time frame going from 9 to about 5 now. QBO still ticking negative at -28.45 Just some observations I'm watching but carry on. And what exactly does that mean to the layman? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kalasea Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 41 minutes ago, yotaman said: And what exactly does that mean to the layman? Was wondering that myself. Perhaps the info on spaceweather They say this solar minimum has effects on the weather. Certainly the magnetic fields are weak with no sunspots. http://www.spaceweather.com/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 It means Carry On! Jk...the QBO seems to be pretty robustly negative. I’m thinking we don’t want to see it that low going into winter. A nice, weakly negative QBO along with a Modoki Nino and low solar wind, low sunspot combo seems like a good thing to put on the Christmas list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 11 hours ago, Cold Rain said: It means Carry On! Jk...the QBO seems to be pretty robustly negative. I’m thinking we don’t want to see it that low going into winter. A nice, weakly negative QBO along with a Modoki Nino and low solar wind, low sunspot combo seems like a good thing to put on the Christmas list. For a cold rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 Brittany Borer @wxbrit 5m5 minutes ago Looking at a LOT of rain over the next several days along the east coast. Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 And one more... Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 19m19 minutes ago 12z GFS-13km showing most areas in NC/SC getting 3+ inches of rain next 9 days. Many areas with more than that #ncwx #scwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted July 19, 2018 Share Posted July 19, 2018 Euro day 7 today.Getting there but probably a bit underdone still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 12 hours ago, No snow for you said: For a cold rain? NChailstorm says Quote Solar wind coming down the last 3 or 4 weeks after spiking up around 700 a few times in April and May, running around 280-450 or so lately. ig drop in the EEP levels too in the same time frame going from 9 to about 5 now. QBO still ticking negative at -28.45 Just some observations I'm watching but carry on. Your on too it I see NChailstorm.. (Why We've had a fairly cool Spring & decent (NOT BROILING) July..) Yotaman asks: And what exactly does that mean to the layman? I don't wanna to play into the Climate Change debate,, Please here... Look up Grand Solar Minimum .. In other words.. It's going to get COLD as _____________________ AND possibly Lotsa record SNOW! This coming up,, gasp Winter! Like that October Dump from last year X2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Looks like it may rain!! Per- Alan Huffman . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Not looking forward to a whole week of rain. Talk about spoiling summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 06z GFS goes a little crazy on amounts... 16 day TOTAL PRECIP: 9.25 " and Convective: 7.87 " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NattyBo Posted July 20, 2018 Share Posted July 20, 2018 Hi all, from the DC area...trying to figure out how badly all this rain is going to impact my only vacation of the year, in Emerald Isle. I'm already figuring the weekend to be a total washout. Any hope for the week? Sorry for the IMBY-ish type question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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