downeastnc Posted June 2, 2018 Share Posted June 2, 2018 Models keeping on the trend for a normal to below normal first half of June temp wise in NC at least......there are a few hot 90ish days but also some barely breaking 80 days with DP's in the 50's...I will take that all day long in June Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 2, 2018 Share Posted June 2, 2018 A lot of water in the Hemisphere right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 Enjoy our short lived CAD for today. It was interesting yesterday; it was warm/humid the first half but then with the frontal passage it turned cool(ish) in the afternoon. NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM Tuesday... Widespread low overcast and areas of drizzle have enveloped cntl NC this morning, related to a 1023 mb, cold air damming high along the nrn middle Atlantic coast. This ridge will continue to extend across the wrn and cntl Carolinas and VA through tonight. Meanwhile, a weak, 1014 mb area of low pressure centered about 50 miles east of CHS this morning will track newd along a coastal front that will drift into the ern Carolinas through this evening. Aloft, a nearly stationary 850 mb trough evident in regional VWP data has focused a band of elevated showers, amidst around 50-100 J/kg of MUCAPE, from near BUY to LHZ to RWI early this morning. This trough is forecast to weaken, with a probable dissipation of those showers, through 12Z. Otherwise, the flow in the mid-upr levels will remain weak and erratic, or light wly/nwly, downstream of a perturbation forecast to move sewd from OH to the srn middle Atlantic coast through this evening. The aforementioned low overcast will likely remain trapped beneath a 1500-2000 ft frontal inversion evident on the GSO and WAL 00Z/12th RAOBs, with no apparent erosion mechanism other than mixing along the periphery of the wedge that should allow the coastal front to retreat into sern NC this afternoon. Ascent along and across that boundary will provide the primary focus for measurable precipitation (showers/isolated storms) today, the wrn edge of which will likely hold east of I-95. Temperatures today will consequently remain much below average, with highs ranging from the upr 60s over the nrn Piedmont to mid to perhaps upr 70s on the sern fringe of the wedge/over the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. A small chance of a shower will remain east of I-95 tonight, in closest proximity to the coastal front and weak frontal wave forecast to track through ern NC. Otherwise, the lingering presence of the weak ridge of high pressure, and CAD, will cause the low overcast to thicken and lower, with lows mostly in the mid-upr 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 I DO NOT buy your "forecast".. not when this happens in JUNE.. WINTER STORM IN JUNE: Special weather alert issued for East Idaho calling for cold temps, frost and mountain snow https://idahostatejournal.com/news/local/winter-storm-in-june-special-weather-alert-issued-for-east/article_dc54e8ba-6b70-56ae-897d-88463857d5e3.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 12, 2018 Share Posted June 12, 2018 Today's 06z GFS for 6/20 - 2/28 Second Period TOTAL PRECIP: 6.21 " and Convective: 2.96 " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 Wow, haven't checked forecasts all day, but last I looked the 7 day was calling for upper 80s to 90 fmby. Now it says all lower to mid 90s after tomorrow; that's a terrible change! Why did you guys let this happen while I was away? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 Looking really good for Winter. Weak El Nino and huge bias for Hudson Bay-south trough/+PNA/-EPO pattern right now, the Summer through... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 53 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Looking really good for Winter. Weak El Nino and huge bias for Hudson Bay-south trough/+PNA/-EPO pattern right now, the Summer through... Get through the fire then it will all be worth it... If we don't melt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 Whoever said high soil moisture would keep heatwaves at bay, hasn’t seen the forecast for the next 10 days! Looks rough, mid 90s abound and no rain! Heading for a very Shetley 2 weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 On 6/12/2018 at 9:29 AM, Solak said: Today's 06z GFS for 6/20 - 2/28 Second Period TOTAL PRECIP: 6.21 " and Convective: 2.96 " And today's... Looks a lot more reasonable. Second Period TOTAL PRECIP: 0.81 " and Convective: 0.73 " Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 13, 2018 Share Posted June 13, 2018 No relief at any point for most of us any time soon if the GFS is correct. Can thank the SW Drought for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 I had two days near 100 (Saturday was 99, Sunday hit 96 imby, and the temp probe my dad installed is in constant shade and correctly calibrated) I was thankful for the rain but the next two weeks look down right brutal... HURRY UP WINTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted June 14, 2018 Share Posted June 14, 2018 Not looking forward to next weeks heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel17 Posted June 15, 2018 Share Posted June 15, 2018 May Uber to work next to not show up drenched from head to toe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 15, 2018 Share Posted June 15, 2018 11 hours ago, Tarheel17 said: May Uber to work next to not show up drenched from head to toe. *Breaking out secret decoder ring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted June 15, 2018 Share Posted June 15, 2018 Hello strangers. I posted some long range thoughts on El Nino here: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/51207-weak-el-nino-2018/?do=findComment&comment=4947953 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 15, 2018 Share Posted June 15, 2018 20 hours ago, Tarheel17 said: May Uber to work next to not show up drenched from head to toe. The green dog barks at midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel17 Posted June 15, 2018 Share Posted June 15, 2018 11 hours ago, Solak said: *Breaking out secret decoder ring 1 hour ago, jburns said: The green dog barks at midnight. Proof this heat has made me woozy. I meant to say that I might Uber to work instead of walk next week. Even just a 15 minute walk is enough to make me drenched in sweat when it's 78 degrees at 8 am in business clothes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobbyC Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 I think this Summer will be more front-loaded. The year so far, weather-wise, has played out more like 2014 with March thru April being cooler than average and May being warmer than average. In 2014, June was warmer than average, and initially, I thought we would have a a bit of a hot Summer, Then we turned cooler in July, and August went on to be below average as well. That Summer ended up below normal temperature-wise. We also had an El Nino developing that year. The following pics are temperature anomalies for June 2014 as well as that overall Summer. Also included is the temperature rank compared to other years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 16, 2018 Share Posted June 16, 2018 Looks like the "heatwave" will be transient though middle of next week ought to be pretty tough with highs mid to upper 90's.....still after 3-4 hot days its back to normal or even below normal temp wise for a lot of the Carolina's at least. Days like yesterday and today I can deal with all summer long... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted June 17, 2018 Share Posted June 17, 2018 1 hour ago, downeastnc said: Looks like the "heatwave" will be transient though middle of next week ought to be pretty tough with highs mid to upper 90's.....still after 3-4 hot days its back to normal or even below normal temp wise for a lot of the Carolina's at least. Days like yesterday and today I can deal with all summer long... Yeah, it's going to get hot but nothing we're not used to. Summer Solstice is near and heat is a reality in the Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 17, 2018 Share Posted June 17, 2018 13 minutes ago, FallsLake said: Yeah, it's going to get hot but nothing we're not used to. Summer Solstice is near and heat is a reality in the Southeast. Yep. Pretty soon, the days will be getting shorter. I can’t wait! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 17, 2018 Share Posted June 17, 2018 Check it out, I wonder what's going on? This is last year-like and a definite trend in the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 17, 2018 Share Posted June 17, 2018 6 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Check it out, I wonder what's going on? This is last year-like and a definite trend in the last few days. What do you mean? Like it’s abnormal to see AN, N, and AN configured like that? Or that it’s abnormal to basically see the whole US AOA normal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted June 17, 2018 Share Posted June 17, 2018 Atlantic SSTs are cold, El Nino conditions since April, basically really above average precip. I'm just pointing out a pretty significant pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 18, 2018 Share Posted June 18, 2018 NWS Raleigh threw a new word into my vocabulary overnight I had to Google it! A tertiary cold front looks to push through on Saturday, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted June 18, 2018 Share Posted June 18, 2018 7 hours ago, Solak said: NWS Raleigh threw a new word into my vocabulary overnight I had to Google it! A tertiary cold front looks to push through on Saturday, Well I know what "tertiary" is but I have no idea what a cold front is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted June 26, 2018 Share Posted June 26, 2018 Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago The coming heat wave is likely to have few record highs but is still a big deal. Its just that the hysteria whipped up yesterday by GFS does not look to be the case Its backed off and much more like Euro ensembles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 With the amount of rain I've received over the last month (~half inch), I absolutely believe the latest GFS: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 28, 2018 Share Posted June 28, 2018 2 hours ago, FallsLake said: With the amount of rain I've received over the last month (~half inch), I absolutely believe the latest GFS: It varies quite a bit run to run.....could be a pretty nice cool shot right after the 4th.....I hope it pans out as I am at the river for the week after the 4th and mid 80's and some clouds are way better than mid 90's and sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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