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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95

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Enjoy our short lived CAD for today. It was interesting yesterday; it was warm/humid the first half but then with the frontal passage it turned cool(ish) in the afternoon. 

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 400 AM Tuesday... Widespread low overcast and areas of drizzle have enveloped cntl NC this morning, related to a 1023 mb, cold air damming high along the nrn middle Atlantic coast. This ridge will continue to extend across the wrn and cntl Carolinas and VA through tonight. Meanwhile, a weak, 1014 mb area of low pressure centered about 50 miles east of CHS this morning will track newd along a coastal front that will drift into the ern Carolinas through this evening. Aloft, a nearly stationary 850 mb trough evident in regional VWP data has focused a band of elevated showers, amidst around 50-100 J/kg of MUCAPE, from near BUY to LHZ to RWI early this morning. This trough is forecast to weaken, with a probable dissipation of those showers, through 12Z. Otherwise, the flow in the mid-upr levels will remain weak and erratic, or light wly/nwly, downstream of a perturbation forecast to move sewd from OH to the srn middle Atlantic coast through this evening. The aforementioned low overcast will likely remain trapped beneath a 1500-2000 ft frontal inversion evident on the GSO and WAL 00Z/12th RAOBs, with no apparent erosion mechanism other than mixing along the periphery of the wedge that should allow the coastal front to retreat into sern NC this afternoon. Ascent along and across that boundary will provide the primary focus for measurable precipitation (showers/isolated storms) today, the wrn edge of which will likely hold east of I-95. Temperatures today will consequently remain much below average, with highs ranging from the upr 60s over the nrn Piedmont to mid to perhaps upr 70s on the sern fringe of the wedge/over the Sandhills and Coastal Plain. A small chance of a shower will remain east of I-95 tonight, in closest proximity to the coastal front and weak frontal wave forecast to track through ern NC. Otherwise, the lingering presence of the weak ridge of high pressure, and CAD, will cause the low overcast to thicken and lower, with lows mostly in the mid-upr 60s.

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I DO NOT buy your "forecast".. not when this happens in JUNE..

WINTER STORM IN JUNE: Special weather alert issued for East Idaho calling for cold temps, frost and mountain snow https://idahostatejournal.com/news/local/winter-storm-in-june-special-weather-alert-issued-for-east/article_dc54e8ba-6b70-56ae-897d-88463857d5e3.html

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On 6/12/2018 at 9:29 AM, Solak said:

Today's 06z GFS for 6/20 - 2/28

Second Period TOTAL PRECIP: 6.21 " and Convective: 2.96 "

And today's... Looks a lot more reasonable.

Second Period TOTAL PRECIP: 0.81 " and Convective: 0.73 "

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11 hours ago, Solak said:

*Breaking out secret decoder ring

 

1 hour ago, jburns said:

The green dog barks at midnight.

Proof this heat has made me woozy.

I meant to say that I might Uber to work instead of walk next week. Even just a 15 minute walk is enough to make me drenched in sweat when it's 78 degrees at 8 am in business clothes.

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I think this Summer will be more front-loaded.

The year so far, weather-wise, has played out more like 2014 with March thru April being cooler than average and May being warmer than average.

In 2014, June was warmer than average, and initially, I thought we would have a a bit of a hot Summer, Then we turned cooler in July, and August went on to be below average as well. That Summer ended up below normal temperature-wise. We also had an El Nino developing that year.

The following pics are temperature anomalies for June 2014 as well as that overall Summer. Also included is the temperature rank compared to other years. 

June 2014_temp.png

Summer 2014_temp.png

Summer 2014_temp rank.png

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Looks like the "heatwave" will be transient though middle of next week ought to be pretty tough with highs mid to upper 90's.....still after 3-4 hot days its back to normal or even below normal temp wise for a lot of the Carolina's at least.  Days like yesterday and today I can deal with all summer long...

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1 hour ago, downeastnc said:

Looks like the "heatwave" will be transient though middle of next week ought to be pretty tough with highs mid to upper 90's.....still after 3-4 hot days its back to normal or even below normal temp wise for a lot of the Carolina's at least.  Days like yesterday and today I can deal with all summer long...

Yeah, it's going to get hot but nothing we're not used to. Summer Solstice is near and heat is a reality in the Southeast. 

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6 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

Check it out, I wonder what's going on? This is last year-like and a definite trend in the last few days. 

814temp.new.gif

What do you mean?  Like it’s abnormal to see AN, N, and AN configured like that?  Or that it’s abnormal to basically see the whole US AOA normal?

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2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

With the amount of rain I've received over the last month (~half inch), I absolutely believe the latest GFS:

It varies quite a bit run to run.....could be a pretty nice cool shot right after the 4th.....I hope it pans out as I am at the river for the week after the 4th and mid 80's and some clouds are way better than mid 90's and sun.

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