AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 24" of rain is pretty extreme.. STJ going Strong Nino, at least Nino for the last month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 15 hours ago, No snow for you said: I got a new 3 ton unit for 2600 bc I paid cash. Remember there is a list price and a hundred dollar bill price Could you float me a few of those Bennies, if you have any laying around?! 2 hours ago, jpbart said: I had my A/C go out, it was the starting capacitor and not too expensive to fix. Good luck getting your looked at. I highly recommend getting on a maintance contract with an installer. Mine come out 2X a year to check, clean and lubricate various parts. Also with a 1993 system you going have to start thinking about a new system. That’s a whole other can of worms. Good luck. We have a contract with a home warranty service. That has been worth the money, but we are getting to the end of this unit’s lifecycle, I’m afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpbart Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 44 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: Could you float me a few of those Bennies, if you have any laying around?! We have a contract with a home warranty service. That has been worth the money, but we are getting to the end of this unit’s lifecycle, I’m afraid. I agree, I wonder if we have any HVAC installers on this list who have advice for selecting brands, seer ratings etc. oh yeah, back to weather. Damn it’s hot! Desperately painting my shed before next week rain. Damn it’s hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 2 hours ago, jpbart said: I agree, I wonder if we have any HVAC installers on this list who have advice for selecting brands, seer ratings etc. oh yeah, back to weather. Damn it’s hot! Desperately painting my shed before next week rain. Damn it’s hot. The upcoming pattern looks really interesting. Lots of rain and storm chances, with even a tropical and flooding threat. My favorite time of the year is fall and into winter, but there are things to love about the weather in every season. I’m with you on the heat, though. I don’t enjoy that very much. Hope you get that shed painted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 GSP: Afternoon AFD The concern through the period will be, of course, the amount of moisture across the area. PWs will flirt with and at times exceed record levels off and on through the period as surges of moisture spread overhead. With the tropical airmass, lapse rates will not be impressive even with the high moisture content and lower LCLs until later in the period, and some low-level shear may enter the mix Friday afternoon into Saturday. Any thunderstorms will of course just enhance convective rainfall rates. 12z GFS is giving storm total QPF (including the near/short term periods) through Monday 12z of 5-6", mostly along the I-85 corridor in GA/SC and then up the escarpment into NC. 00z ECMWF brings a max of over 8" through the same time period, concentrated in the upslope areas of the SW mountains, with widespread 3-4" elsewhere. Hopefully this will be just a good soaking rain, with decent amounts each day but not an overwhelming amount in any one 6-hr period, but as the totals continue to pile up from the short term and into the extended, we will have to monitor this closely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 8 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Could you float me a few of those Bennies, if you have any laying around?! We have a contract with a home warranty service. That has been worth the money, but we are getting to the end of this unit’s lifecycle, I’m afraid. You will have to replace the inside heat exchanger too. There has been a change in refrigerant that makes it mandatory. $$$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpbart Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 10 hours ago, jburns said: You will have to replace the inside heat exchanger too. There has been a change in refrigerant that makes it mandatory. $$$$ Jburns is correct here, it's the whole system that needs replacing. In one way it's a good thing, newer systems are more efficient and work better. Toss in a smart thermostat and you can recoup you up front cost over time. If you get this fixed I suggest you get some estimates for new systems while this one is still going. Then you can weigh what to do, what SEER rating you want to pay for etc. Shed is painted, well mostly, ran out of paint. So after the rain I have to do the touch up and finish the trim. 97+ degrees and painting a shed was hell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 14, 2018 Share Posted May 14, 2018 Regarding the GFS fantasy hurricanes, I still doubt it. This week we have a possible hybrid, more likely an upper low, coming in. If the 850 winds can gin up it might be interesting midweek. SPC does not mention it; after all, it does not exist yet. GFS 11-15 day fantasy continues. Again, I doubt a hurricane or even tropical storm. However, ECMWF and its parallel/beta both show a tropical wave in the western Caribbean day 10. Frankly day 10 is a joke on all models, but they do agree. I infer only a tropical wave or surface low (depression) at the most. If it approaches, I will hope for nothing strong. Just enough for elevated 850 winds. When the May weather pattern creates desperation... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted May 23, 2018 Share Posted May 23, 2018 Eric Webb @webberweather May 22 After a possible brief hiatus from rain/storms late this week, a firehose of very deep, rich tropical moisture on the east side of #90L will be aimed at the SE US coast & Carolinas in time for Memorial Day and could remain entrenched thru the rest of May. Time to get a boat #ncwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 24, 2018 Share Posted May 24, 2018 Looking very wet for the SE, chances increasing that the first tropical storm could hit and combined with strong southerly flow over the SE really make for another wet 7-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel17 Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 The most miserable May weather-wise I have ever experienced. No change in sight for this pattern either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 PGV has 7.10" of rain recorded so far in May, and still manages to be 5.5 degrees above normal temp wise......be nuts to top 10" of rain for May, the current max monthly total for May is 9.71 back in 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 4 hours ago, Tarheel17 said: The most miserable May weather-wise I have ever experienced. No change in sight for this pattern either. I could not agree more. Way above average temp wise, mid summer humidity levels, a yard that is never going to dry out again, mosquitoes, only a few pleasant evenings, and looks to go on forever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 1 hour ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: I could not agree more. Way above average temp wise, mid summer humidity levels, a yard that is never going to dry out again, mosquitoes, only a few pleasant evenings, and looks to go on forever! Feast or famine around here! Or just famine, with regards to snow! We probably won’t see a drop of rain July-September! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 Yikes....widespread 3-5" totals forecasted for a lot of the SE.....the river here only a few feet from flood stage and still rising slowly, if eastern NC gets 4-6" as depicted on the WPC forecast then we should see most rivers go to at least minor flood stage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 26, 2018 Share Posted May 26, 2018 5 hours ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: I could not agree more. Way above average temp wise, mid summer humidity levels, a yard that is never going to dry out again, mosquitoes, only a few pleasant evenings, and looks to go on forever! If you buy the GFS, it gets much worse from here on out once Alberto's out of the way. (granted, you guys in NC may get a more extended reprieve next weekend before the furnace really kicks in). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mjwise Posted May 27, 2018 Share Posted May 27, 2018 On 5/13/2018 at 10:59 AM, Bosswx said: Rain!Any thoughts? The GFS at 336 hrs actually seems that it was...fairly accurate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted May 27, 2018 Share Posted May 27, 2018 5 hours ago, Powerball said: If you buy the GFS, it gets much worse from here on out once Alberto's out of the way. (granted, you guys in NC may get a more extended reprieve next weekend before the furnace really kicks in). The GFS seems to sniff out trends pretty well in the summer but it always overdoes the heat. Been showing the mega heat in Texas awhile now, but keeps backing off the bleeding east. The past two runs show less heat making it east, especially the 0z, but definitely seems to keep the wet cloudy pattern going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
drfranklin Posted May 27, 2018 Share Posted May 27, 2018 shouldn't all this rain temper daytime heating this summer? (very moist soil) I've rec'd LOTS of rain in the past several weeks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Orangeburgwx Posted May 27, 2018 Share Posted May 27, 2018 36 minutes ago, drfranklin said: shouldn't all this rain temper daytime heating this summer? (very moist soil) I've rec'd LOTS of rain in the past several weeks... No, it would just make it worse. With all this water evaporating that will drive up dew points, humidity, heat index, and potentially fire off some pretty severe afternoon/evening thunderstorms... We are in for a long, hot, muggy Indian summer here in the southeast and I can't wait for winter to fire back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 28, 2018 Share Posted May 28, 2018 Here comes El Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted May 29, 2018 Share Posted May 29, 2018 No real heat in sight for Carolinas and Virginia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted May 29, 2018 Share Posted May 29, 2018 4 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: No real heat in sight for Carolinas and Virginia. Good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted May 29, 2018 Share Posted May 29, 2018 8 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: No real heat in sight for Carolinas and Virginia. Its actually worse than heat.....its called humidity! And it sucks. And it promotes weed growth in my weed lawn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 Today’s forecast, ugh, ick eeew! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 2 hours ago, Isopycnic said: Today’s forecast, ugh, ick eeew! No doubt some of the South American rain forrest critters are heading this way for summer vacation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 Is this the return of the Big Wet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 25 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Is this the return of the Big Wet? The long range models have been wavering on how much cool/dry air makes it down to our location. Some runs have shown dew points in the 40s for a couple days whereas others have it barely getting into the 50s for one day. It would be wonderful to get a few cool/dry days in June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpbart Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 39 minutes ago, FallsLake said: The long range models have been wavering on how much cool/dry air makes it down to our location. Some runs have shown dew points in the 40s for a couple days whereas others have it barely getting into the 50s for one day. It would be wonderful to get a few cool/dry days in June. Amen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted May 30, 2018 Share Posted May 30, 2018 The 12z GFS is back to the cooler look. Click future frames on the below link to see the modeled dew points: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=seus&pkg=Td2m&runtime=2018053012&fh=108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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