SENC Posted April 22, 2018 Share Posted April 22, 2018 KILM... Short term /Monday through Monday night/... as of 400 am Sunday...the time frame extending from the start of this period, 6am Mon, through Tuesday daylight morning, the local forecast area will see nearly a continuous shield of light to moderate stratiform type rains. Embedded in this shield of rainfall, will be a few thunderstorms. For the most part, the tstorm activity will occur over the Atlantic waters and given the trajectory of the swath of pcpn moving onshore, the coastal counties will be the 1st in line to experience a few of these storms. As the pcpn moves further inland, the lack of instability will keep tstorms from further developing or in this case, from progressing too far inland before it's demise. Models indicate an expansive area of strong uvvs across the forecast area and surroundings for a good 24 to 36 hrs. This a result of synoptic difluence aloft due to the positioning of the upper closed low as it moves from the lower Mississippi Valley Monday morning, to eastern Tennessee late Tue night before finally opening up to a S/W trof by Wed. Model soundings indicate 50+ kt east to southeast winds pumping in low level Atlantic moisture across the Carolinas. Gulf of Mexico moisture will have already been and continue to be tapped but by this time the main source will be Atlantic moisture. Forecast rainfall amounts during this 2 day period will range from 2 to 4 inches. Isolated higher amounts are possible mainly along the immediate coast due to the onshore movement of any convection before dying out as it pushes further inland into a more stable atm in the low levels. This modest rainfall amounts over a 2 day period will be extremely beneficial to farmers and local growers. Crops, plants, trees and etc, will literally act like sponges and absorb this water. And given the 2 day period of these rains, we do not expect high runoff problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 Liking the drier air coming the next few days. If anyone says anything else about a drought I'm going to puke. Looks like May to start out well above average; here we go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted April 28, 2018 Share Posted April 28, 2018 +NAO.. I think if the +NAO can hold, there will be some hurricane season hits Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 Really warm this midweek, but after that, not so much into mid May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 27 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Really warm this midweek, but after that, not so much into mid May. Good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 ^^Yep, we're fast approaching that time of year where below normal temps feel good and normal/above is warm/hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted April 30, 2018 Share Posted April 30, 2018 If we can contain sustained heat to June, July, and August, I am happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 Allan Huffman @RaleighWx 29m29 minutes ago April in 2017 was the warmest in 132 years in Raleigh. 2018 was 9 degrees colder and the 21st coldest in 132 years. Coldest since 1997 #ncwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 +NAO is max today - 5/4. Highest since Dec 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted May 1, 2018 Share Posted May 1, 2018 Looks like the doldrums of summer are about to set in for the next 5+ months. Good thing is days start getting shorter in about seven weeks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 It's hard the imagine the jet stream would be anything but north this Summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted May 2, 2018 Share Posted May 2, 2018 It's hard the imagine the jet stream would be anything but north this SummerAfter looking at those panels, I have to agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 Pretty incredible happening right now with the strength of these ridges. Strongest +NAO in 2.5 years now has 3 bursts, next being Day 5 and Day 9. By the end it's downright hot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted May 6, 2018 Share Posted May 6, 2018 GSP calling for near 90 this weekend for upstate . Need to take some Hirbernol to knock me out till mid September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 6, 2018 Share Posted May 6, 2018 Highest NAO today since 2013... 5 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted May 6, 2018 Share Posted May 6, 2018 4 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Highest NAO today since 2013... 5 years Hmmm. 2018 -2013 5 I'll be damned, you're correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 6, 2018 Share Posted May 6, 2018 Actually all the way back to 1998 there isn't one higher than +2.4 (today is ~+2.7) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted May 7, 2018 Share Posted May 7, 2018 23 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: Highest NAO today since 2013... 5 years 2013 was a good summer for the arctic sea ice. Lets hope the pattern up there this melt season will be similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gman Posted May 8, 2018 Share Posted May 8, 2018 We got 2.10” of rain last night at my house, giving me hope for a positive change in the weather pattern (more rain shower chances). The WXSouth Facebook post this morning dashed my hope. “Well there's major changes to the forecast since the last update. Models made a massive switch aloft in the flow pattern, and now instead of having a deep penetrating front come through next weekend, with widespread showers, instead a HEAT WAVE is on the way. The European and GFS both leave that western trough in tact well out west, and that allows a Southeast ridge to build in starting Thursday and it grows this weekend and through much of next week. A ridge in this location with this kind of strength simply means HEAT and HUMIDITY. Get your AC's ready. Full breakdown of daily details is at my premium blog. The Euro and GFS has 90s prety widespread in GA and the Carolinas (as well as west Texas) then merges the heat dome to encompass the entire Southern US by Sunday, Monday and Tuesday of next week, and they show impressive numbers for middle of May. This will be a first time I can recall having so many lilies still not open yet, and plenty of Irises, and Azaleas and a few other perennials in bloom while there are this many consecutive days in the 90's. I for one am not ready for this kind of heat, but then again, we seem to go from Winter to Summer a lot more now. The delayed Spring was nice while it lasted.” Image valid Sunday , map from PivotalWeather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted May 11, 2018 Share Posted May 11, 2018 Next 4 days gonna be torture, GSP showing 90 each day, with 94 on Sunday for Greenville proper. That would be close to a record, and the high for all of last summer was only 96 I think. At least after that it goes back to normal, but not liking the above normal May and start to the hot season. Can't help but wonder if the mid 90s forecast are bit too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 11, 2018 Share Posted May 11, 2018 1 hour ago, Iceagewhereartthou said: Next 4 days gonna be torture, GSP showing 90 each day, with 94 on Sunday for Greenville proper. That would be close to a record, and the high for all of last summer was only 96 I think. At least after that it goes back to normal, but not liking the above normal May and start to the hot season. Can't help but wonder if the mid 90s forecast are bit too high. The GFS is almost always warmer than all the other models in the summer sometimes ridiculously so....the NAMS keep temps in the 90-92 range with DP's in the low to mid 60's so while this weekend will be warm it wont be that bad when compared to mid summer when our actual average highs are 90-92 and DP hang out in the 70's. Still I wouldnt be surprised to see a few 92-94's in the typically warmer spots this weekend. The models all have a weak "low" forming in the eastern GOM and have that drift up over the SE mid next week leading to a extended period of shower/stormy weather and higher DP's, I would rather have 90-92 with DP's in the low 60's versus the 85-88 and DP's in the mid 70's we will have mid to late next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 This looks fairly damp. Don’t show Shetley. My AC went out last night. Blowing mild air. Ug. Always waits till it gets super hot and always does it on a Friday night so we can wait maximum time until someone can come out. Won’t be until Monday before we even get it scheduled. Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 I think this is the most important image in long range forecasting El Nino incoming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 3 hours ago, Cold Rain said: This looks fairly damp. Don’t show Shetley. My AC went out last night. Blowing mild air. Ug. Always waits till it gets super hot and always does it on a Friday night so we can wait maximum time until someone can come out. Won’t be until Monday before we even get it scheduled. Awesome. Rains good. I always worry this time of year about possible drought development. Buy yourself a window unit. Even after you get the central air fixed, it's good to have a backup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 slopgyre low over the eastern GOM and the SER should provide plenty of strong S/SW flow over the SE and that usually equals lots of daytime showers and storms coverage..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted May 12, 2018 Share Posted May 12, 2018 4 hours ago, FallsLake said: Rains good. I always worry this time of year about possible drought development. Buy yourself a window unit. Even after you get the central air fixed, it's good to have a backup. Yep that’s not a bad idea. We have a 1993 unit, so we’re lucky if it works at all, guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 5 hours ago, Cold Rain said: Yep that’s not a bad idea. We have a 1993 unit, so we’re lucky if it works at all, guess. I got a new 3 ton unit for 2600 bc I paid cash. Remember there is a list price and a hundred dollar bill price Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jpbart Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 I had my A/C go out, it was the starting capacitor and not too expensive to fix. Good luck getting your looked at. I highly recommend getting on a maintance contract with an installer. Mine come out 2X a year to check, clean and lubricate various parts. Also with a 1993 system you going have to start thinking about a new system. That’s a whole other can of worms. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bosswx Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 Rain!Any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 13, 2018 Share Posted May 13, 2018 16 minutes ago, Bosswx said: Rain!Any thoughts? You may like it now, but I'm thinking just wait until all of that starts evaporating under the June sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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