BornAgain13 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 0z NAM ends up being to warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 41 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said: 0z NAM ends up being to warm. Yep Va. Special, BUT Brad P. just posted this!! 1 min · Twitter · Retweeted Brad Panovich (@wxbrad): #NASCAR should be fun this weekend in @MartinsvilleSwy #snOMGhttps://t.co/PYJvXFNnRi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Well the GFS is finally giving NC the bird on this winter.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 00Z runs still keep the general trend alive, totals a bit lower and less coverage on the GFS with lower totals for MBY, but the ICON actually gave MBY more this time around.... just seeing it snow decent this late in March is a win really... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 00Z Euro so painful in the Triangle...... Edit: just watch the local news early edition and their futurecast 9 in house model shows snow NE of a line that runs SW of RDU and Greenville a bit and she didn't even mention snow said rain and didn't even allude to the dark blues over a lot of NC on the model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Pretty good shift on the NAM finally......brings light accumulations further into NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 1 hour ago, downeastnc said: Pretty good shift on the NAM finally......brings light accumulations further into NC. This will be a case where you want to be as far northeast as possible (it's usually NW). Durham or Wake Forest could get more than Greensboro. Model runs will be interesting today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 1 minute ago, FallsLake said: This will be a case where you want to be as far northeast as possible (it's usually NW). Durham or Wake Forest could get more than Greensboro. Model runs will be interesting today. Man I’m surprised by NWS Blacksburg on this one. Very conservative thus far and only issuing winter storm watches up this way for the mountains only. Almost every short and long term model I have reviewed this morning shows 6” or more potentially for my area and even to the southwest. Still plenty of time I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Man I’m surprised by NWS Blacksburg on this one. Very conservative thus far and only issuing winter storm watches up this way for the mountains only. Almost every short and long term model I have reviewed this morning shows 6” or more potentially for my area and even to the southwest. Still plenty of time I guess. There's definitely a lot of positives on a potential winter storm. But there are also negatives; chiefly the time of year. High elevations can score in late March, but folks "off the mountain" have to get the perfect setup. **I'm tracking this storm but I have no expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Buddy, keep in mind it’s still pretty far out and will get to the mountains first. So, lack of a watch may have to do with the fact that warning conditions may still be too far out. Just my thinking as it seems obvious a watch is coming. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 Eric Webb: This CAD wedge in the medium range is absolutely absurd especially coming from the GFS which is notorious for underestimating CAD domes. #ncwx https://t.co/bZTeFZsoaX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 The UK is quite cold as precip moves in, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 I think it's time for a thread.. The event is only 2 or 2 and a half days away and is on every model to varying degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 1 minute ago, wncsnow said: I think it's time for a thread.. The event is only 2 or 2 and a half days away and is on every model to varying degrees. I nominate you since you will be in the crosshairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 This is what you get when the solar/QBO is favorable,which leads to strong and persistent SSW's also.Pattern is trying to produce even this late into late March. Other than the 3-4 week stretch in Feb,it was quite good this year,solar should be even better next winter but that QBO could flip which wouldn't be good.ENSO should be better though . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Upstate Tiger Posted March 22, 2018 Share Posted March 22, 2018 If we had the pattern we're having now back in January or February, we 'd be talking one epic month for many on this board! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao_index_mrf.shtml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 NAO is being subborn now on medium term models (meaning no neg NAO). Stratosphere warmings are followed by 2 -NAO bursts. This could be a sign for long regime +NAO phase still.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted March 24, 2018 Share Posted March 24, 2018 Seems to be less run to run consistency in the NAO forecast recently; perhaps the pattern is finally breaking down. In the mountains, still think we have a shot at seeing a few more flakes of snow the first week or so of April then Spring may finally set it; maybe... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted March 25, 2018 Share Posted March 25, 2018 WFMY Tim Buckley: The lesson for all NC forecasters this winter should be, "High snowfall rates will overcome your warm air and warm ground" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted March 26, 2018 Share Posted March 26, 2018 7 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: WFMY Tim Buckley: The lesson for all NC forecasters this winter should be, "High snowfall rates will overcome your warm air and warm ground" Always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted March 26, 2018 Share Posted March 26, 2018 Joe Bastardi: GEFS every run bolder on the colder and in line with ideas from Feb on winter not leaving till well into April. Latest GEFS 5 day ending April 8 getting closer to extreme case on April 1982 https://t.co/gusgUrTtBQ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted March 26, 2018 Share Posted March 26, 2018 6 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Joe Bastardi: GEFS every run bolder on the colder and in line with ideas from Feb on winter not leaving till well into April. Latest GEFS 5 day ending April 8 getting closer to extreme case on April 1982 https://t.co/gusgUrTtBQ Yes, looking like the NAO doing a negative dive about the first of April; looks like the same pattern persisting until at least April 8. Fantasy positive NAO after that; we will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted March 26, 2018 Share Posted March 26, 2018 Don't underestimate Winter Overtime this Year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted March 26, 2018 Share Posted March 26, 2018 Matthew East @eastwx 1h1 hour ago I am off this morning, so no video. However, what's next? Looks like a nice warm-up later this week, but I feel that will just be a brief island of warmth. I feel a colder pattern will return Easter weekend and could stay into the second week of April. #ncwx #scwx #cltwx #triadwx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarmNose Posted March 26, 2018 Share Posted March 26, 2018 7 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: Don't underestimate Winter Overtime this Year. 6 weeks too late.. One day we will time things just right. One day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 26, 2018 Share Posted March 26, 2018 Just looking at averages (low elevations), during the next couple of weeks most will experience their last freeze until Fall. It seems the first week of April is a prim time. The GFS has a cold look ~ day 13, Canadian for the day 9/10, and the Euro ~ day 10. Hot weather is a couple of months away... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 26, 2018 Share Posted March 26, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinstonSalemArlington Posted March 26, 2018 Share Posted March 26, 2018 The latest total snowfall accumulation in NC this season (so far). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted March 26, 2018 Share Posted March 26, 2018 8 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said: The latest total snowfall accumulation in NC this season (so far). That map matches up perfectly with observations IMBY, but I can't speak for other areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted March 26, 2018 Share Posted March 26, 2018 8 minutes ago, calculus1 said: That map matches up perfectly with observations IMBY, but I can't speak for other areas. Mine too. Not bad this year, not bad at all. On to severe tracking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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