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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018


Cary_Snow95

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1 minute ago, Poimen said:

Keep in mind, as modeled this is a bonafide CAD event, which normally trends colder as we get closer. But then again, this is late March we're talking about so who knows. 

Crazy weather we're having. In late February I thought we were heading for a record early bloomage. Now I'm thinking the opposite. A lot of the flowering trees have blooms but all the others nothing.

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RAH this morning:

 The GFS and ECMWF are coming
into better agreement on timing, focusing precip from late Sat
afternoon through mid to late morning Sun, and partial thicknesses
from both models support a trend to broad corridors of mixed ptypes,
mainly along/north of 64 through Sat night, finishing off as mostly
light snow Sun as cold air rushes in on the back side of the
secondary low tracking away from the Southeast coast. Given the high
uncertainty of specific ptypes at this time range, however, have
opted for a rain/snow mix, mainly across the north, with mostly rain
south, for the time being.
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Still snowing decent here at GSO airport. Sticking to everything but the roads. Trees look awesome.

Stick another feather in the overperformer headpiece as far as I'm concerned. I can't remember an event this winter , where its underperformed here locally compared to what models forecast where spitting out in advance. Hopefully Sunday we can knockout one more paste bomb to close out the season. Hard to beleive this is the 3rd time weve seen snow this March.

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2 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

The latest 12K NAM is quite a bit further north with the snowfall this weekend than is the GFS or ICON.  Buddy is going to be in heaven, after last night's heavy snow and then this upcoming event.

 

image.thumb.png.9254a067ffa8baac5d4015e394ad23d6.png

But that's only through Saturday evening. The GFS was showing the brunt of the snow in NC overnight and into Sunday. 

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