Buddy1987 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, griteater said: 12z GFS moved away a bit from its idea of a stronger lead wave moving through TN. 12z CMC looks similar to GFS. Both look pretty good in your area Buddy. CMC has kind of been between the farther north GFS and weaker, farther south Euro/UKMet camp, and may be a good middle ground. For NC, it looks too warm on the front side of the storm, except for maybe the northern mtns...then there could be some changeover for some areas depending on how the backside wave evolves. I’m thinking it may be hard to get it to accumulate however, given sun angle and time of year. Would really have to pour down. I do like where I sit at present though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 12z UKMet looks similar to GFS and CMC on the early maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 12z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 2 minutes ago, griteater said: 12z GFS moved away a bit from its idea of a stronger lead wave moving through TN. 12z CMC looks similar to GFS. Both look pretty good in your area Buddy. CMC has kind of been between the farther north GFS and weaker, farther south Euro/UKMet camp, and may be a good middle ground. For NC, it looks too warm on the front side of the storm, except for maybe the northern mtns...then there could be some changeover for some areas depending on how the backside wave evolves. I’m thinking it may be hard to get it to accumulate however, given sun angle and time of year. Would really have to pour down. I do like where I sit at present though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Good hit on the Euro today roughly N of I 40 in NW N.Carolina up toward the border counties at hour 78. 3'-'6 with 10'' in the N mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 That's swanky looking---wish it were about a month earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 The soundings don't really support snow until lunch/afternoon and that's when the system is moving out... Cold rain until the cold air is established at which point most of the QPF is gone. I should clarify this is for the Raleigh area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ajr Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 25 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: The soundings don't really support snow until lunch/afternoon and that's when the system is moving out... Cold rain until the cold air is established at which point most of the QPF is gone. I should clarify this is for the Raleigh area. ...and it will always switch over later than expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Guess we'll take the Euro and ICON FTW...... Sloppy flakes at the end!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Surprised this isn't getting more talk. I just saw on twitter that the latest GEFS members almost all had snow for RDU with 13/20 more than 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 7 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: Surprised this isn't getting more talk. I just saw on twitter that the latest GEFS members almost all had snow for RDU with 13/20 more than 2" Euro has been going crazy today with storm totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PGAWx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 I saw that too and was thinking the same thing. Everyone checked out 3 weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StoneColdWeatherAustin Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 I think everyone may be stuck to the tv watching the tourney. That said, the euro has been looking beefy today.Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Well I think having low expectations is warranted. It's a rain to backside snow scenario which is fraught with question marks. Upper wave on the Euro has a nice track for parts of NC, but would prefer it to trend stronger. GFS and CMC have been improving some as well with the wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Anyone have the euro snow map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 1 minute ago, SN_Lover said: Anyone have the euro snow map? Here's the Kuchera Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 00z GFS is on the north side of the guidance with the wave track, but does have some light accumulations roll through parts of NC (mainly northern 1/2)...more thru S VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Dangit, which one of you didnt stop doing the snow dance at the end of Feb?? This is seriously messing up my yardwork efforts. Looks like cold chasing moisture for the Triad but my point and click now says 2". Rates could overcome ground temps as they have cooled quite a bit from last week. But this isnt a heavy hitter. Doesnt look to be an overnight event so daytime heating and sun angle work against accums. And the temps look borderline as well until you get into S VA. So I'll vote against anything more than a snow shower and hope Buddy gets in one last hurrah. Enjoy Buddy! Now back to spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 flurries here in Todd for the past 2 hours...BTW I peeked in to the mid-atlantic forum and they're cliff jumping and kinda hectic...admitting my sins...hope we get a nice event before spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 00z CMC is farther south with the focus of the backside changeover to some snow (more like the NAM trajectory)...it flips over to some snow in SE TN, NE Bama, N GA, SW NC. Backside precip looks decent there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Ukie bombs the storm out. 980mb and deepening, sitting between Duck and EC nice and snug Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 44 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Ukie bombs the storm out. 980mb and deepening, sitting between Duck and EC nice and snug It looked similar to the morning Euro with the wave. The backside precip blossoms nicely as it rolls thru the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 Euro looks similar to last run but with maybe a little less backside precip as the colder air filters in...it looks best in parts of northwest NC, and parts of southwest and south central VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 It looked similar to the morning Euro with the wave. The backside precip blossoms nicely as it rolls thru the Carolinas.What’s temps like on UKMET?. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 5 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said: What’s temps like on UKMET? Not the best. Definitely a cold chasing precip deal, but maybe a flip before ending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 2 hours ago, griteater said: Here's the Kuchera Here's 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 KGSP AFD 12” possible... FOR SUNDAY NIGHT, AS THE MILLER-A LOW SHAPES UP, LOW-LEVEL CAA WILL PICK UP ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS, AND IT'LL BE A BIT OF A RACE TO SEE HOW FAR INTO THE PIEDMONT THE COLD AIR SPREADS BEFORE THE DEEP MOISTURE EXITS. ONE THING WE CAN BE FAIRLY CERTAIN OF IS THAT THIS IS A PRETTY GOOD SETUP FOR DECENT ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS, ESPECIALLY AS THE COLD AIR REALLY PUSHES IN ALOFT. THE COLDER THE AIRMASS, THE HIGHER THE SNOW RATIOS GO, BUT ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS IT LOOKS LIKE IT MIGHT AVERAGE OUT AROUND 12:1 OR SO. AS THE MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER LOW RAMS INTO THE APPALACHIANS, THIS IS WHEN WE COULD REALLY SEE SOME SNOWFALL TOTALS PILING UP AT THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WE PUSH TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY. CURRENT QPF AND EXPECTED INCREASING SNOW RATIOS LEAD TO SOME HEFTY AMOUNTS, AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT QPF HAVE TONED THIS DOWN A LITTLE, BUT IN GENERAL HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO ASSUME WE'LL LIKELY HAVE WARNING CRITERIA *AT LEAST* ACROSS THE NORTHERN THREE, AND POSSIBLY FARTHER SW ALONG THE TN LINE INTO THE SMOKIES. FOR NOW, HAVE OPTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR YANCEY/MITCHELL/AVERY; GENERALLY THE 4" CRITERION SHOULD BE MET (WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST) LOOKS LIKE ABOVE 3KFT, BUT ONCE YOU GET UP TO 5KFT AND HIGHER, WOULD NOT BE A BIT SURPRISED IF WE END UP SEEING SOME TOTALS APPROACHING OR EVEN EXCEEDING A FOOT. HAVE KEPT THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS ABOUT 9-10" AND THAT'S PRETTY ISOLATED. LATER SHIFTS WILL HAVE TO REEVALUATE POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SMOKIES (ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE NUTTY NAM WHICH IS PAINTING >15" THERE). WOULD LIKE TO NOTE THAT THE WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT FROM 00Z-18Z MONDAY; BY ISSUING TODAY IT'LL BE ISSUED IN EST BUT VALID DURING EDT SUNDAY NIGHT SO A LITTLE DST CONFUSION THROWN IN THERE WITH THE REST OF THE MESS. AS FOR THE PIEDMONT, OF COURSE THE NC PIEDMONT HAS THE BEST CHANCES OF SEEING ACCUMULATING SNOW, BUT THOUGH 850-700MB THICKNESSES WILL BE COLD ENOUGH, SURFACE TEMPS AND LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES JUST DON'T CUT IT FOR MUCH IN THE WAY OF ACCUMULATION. CURRENT FORECAST REMAINS PRETTY CLOSE TO WHAT WE'VE BEEN ADVERTISING. AS WE MOVE INTO MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, AT THIS POINT IT JUST SORT OF DEPENDS ON IF THE MOISTURE WITH THE UPPER LOW GETS ALL SNOWED OUT IN THE MOUNTAINS OR IF THERE'S ENOUGH TO BREAK CONTAINMENT AND SPREAD INTO THE PIEDMONT; GFS MOST EXCITED ABOUT THIS BUT LOOKS A LITTLE OVERDONE FOR NOW. TYPICAL POST-CAD/POST-COLDFRONTAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY SHOULD BE PRETTY SIMILAR TO IN-CAD/PRE-COLDFRONTAL TEMPS ON SUNDAY, AND AT OR BELOW FREEZING EVERYWHERE FOR MONDAY NIGHT, SO UNLESS THE DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN COMBINED WITH WINDS STRONG ENOUGH TO DRY THE AREA OUT (CERTAINLY MIGHT BE), WE COULD SEE SOME BLACK ICE ISSUES ON TUESDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 10, 2018 Share Posted March 10, 2018 I'll take the ICON for $500 Alex Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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