BullCityWx Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Just now, Queencitywx said: Wow, the UKMET is REALLY south. and way weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 12z Euro is south and weak like UKMet...tough combo to beat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: 12z Euro is south and weak like UKMet...tough combo to beat Yup. At least we've got surprise flurries today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Good if no snow hoping for drier weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, griteater said: 12z Euro is south and weak like UKMet...tough combo to beat South is much better than being too far north. Plus its had some issues being too far south the last few years. But all the solutions on the table are viable; including the most probably solution of cold rain. **we have nothing to lose... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 8 minutes ago, FallsLake said: South is much better than being too far north. Plus its had some issues being too far south the last few years. But all the solutions on the table are viable; including the most probably solution of cold rain. **we have nothing to lose... South is fine, but weak is not...need a strong upper level system to get the cooling. Euro has 32 deg sfc temps in south GA on the morning of Mar 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, griteater said: South is fine, but weak is not...need a strong upper level system to get the cooling. Euro has 32 deg sfc temps in south GA on the morning of Mar 15th NAVGEM would get the job done(great low placement). Just wish it wasn't March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Northern Foothills Snowman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 hour ago, FallsLake said: NAVGEM would get the job done(great low placement). Just wish it wasn't March. That 540 line is pretty far south. Look good. Robert @WXSouth talked last night about CAD with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Lawrdy Lawrdy at the 18z Nam: W/S and Gboro 9+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: Lawrdy Lawrdy at the 18z Nam: W/S and Gboro 9+. Can you share the image? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Difference between the GFS and the Euro/UKMet is quite comical. 18z GFS has a big snow in the northern mtns into SW and central VA...much stronger upper level trough dropping down into TN/NC/VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Huh...what---Who woke me? Thought it was Spring. How's this looking for the Triangle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 54 minutes ago, CaryWx said: Huh...what---Who woke me? Thought it was Spring. How's this looking for the Triangle Awful, as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 hour ago, CaryWx said: Huh...what---Who woke me? Thought it was Spring. How's this looking for the Triangle Go back to hibernation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 hour ago, CaryWx said: Huh...what---Who woke me? Thought it was Spring. How's this looking for the Triangle Unless you sleepwalked about 100 miles NW while hibernating it's going to be a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 Some more big model hits at 0z tonight. Can't discern ukie to well yet, Acc tourney. ICON will make alot of folks happy. We should be getting more definitive , cohesive forecast for our backyards by tommorow night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 8 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Some more big model hits at 0z tonight. Can't discern ukie to well yet, Acc tourney. ICON will make alot of folks happy. We should be getting more definitive , cohesive forecast for our backyards by tommorow night. Yep ICON is a beauty!! JMA ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 6Z GFS a whiff for the triangle. Maybe some deformation band flurries. That's it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 00z ICON that was mentioned and the 00z UKMET both nailed it with the stronger backside wave and secondary sfc low...impressive NAM is also digging deep with the wave at the end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 48 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: 6Z GFS a whiff for the triangle. Maybe some deformation band flurries. That's it. GFS would be a wicked heavy power outage type snowstorm for VA. I’m up in CT still and was able to witness their nor’easter they got up here and it was awesome. Going to have to monitor this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 06z RGEM Some might get lucky and have a period of wet snow at the end!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 1 hour ago, griteater said: 00z ICON that was mentioned and the 00z UKMET both nailed it with the stronger backside wave and secondary sfc low...impressive NAM is also digging deep with the wave at the end 12Z NAM will have my attn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 11 minutes ago, frazdaddy said: 12Z NAM will have my attn. Yep. As I said before, we have nothing to lose and maybe a lucky win. It will take a perfect setup (...even more than normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 My worthless 2 cents from the mtn thread. 10 minutes ago, BooneWX said: I'm feeling good about the model guidance right now, even though a spread exists. Blacksburg has a decent disco on the event and they aren't buying the gfs solution. Interesting note...they think the strength of the storm modeled by the gfs may be correct though. Now that would certainly be a dumping of snow for our area. Agree. The GFS would have to score a major coup over the higher res Euro,ICON, way better performing UKIE, and Nam. Anything can happen, but the gfs being right verse the above is highly unlikely. Today will be the day of reckoning, definitely by 0z tonight. All the pieces to the puzzle will be well sampled and loaded in. I anticipate that at some point,most likely 0z tonight hopefully right after Duke beats unc, the gfs will fall in line, adjust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 To much of a press , confluence up north for this to roll through southern KY, WVA imo. Well see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 24 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: To much of a press , confluence up north for this to roll through southern KY, WVA imo. Well see NAM did trend higher with QPF up my way, closer in line to GFS. Much weaker albeit with system and south overall however. 12K NAM gives me 7''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 12z RGEM looks ominous and more GFS like with the Miller B setup. Low over central TN at end of its run. RGEM still just a touch out of its range but I feel like it has performed very well this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 12z GFS going to be a big hit for VA northern NC mountains. Crazy spread at this timeframe, although Nam imo took a step toward GFS this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 GFS comes south and tries to come off the island it’s on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 9, 2018 Share Posted March 9, 2018 24 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: 12z GFS going to be a big hit for VA northern NC mountains. Crazy spread at this timeframe, although Nam imo took a step toward GFS this morning. 12z GFS moved away a bit from its idea of a stronger lead wave moving through TN. 12z CMC looks similar to GFS. Both look pretty good in your area Buddy. CMC has kind of been between the farther north GFS and weaker, farther south Euro/UKMet camp, and may be a good middle ground. For NC, it looks too warm on the front side of the storm, except for maybe the northern mtns...then there could be some changeover for some areas depending on how the backside wave evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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