SnowDeac Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 Shows another big dog ice storm for next Friday, as well. MOAR THREATS! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 18z GFS said, "No ice for you!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 3, 2018 Share Posted January 3, 2018 5 hours ago, franklin NCwx said: Great winter so far and my expectations were real low heading into this winter. It’s really been a story of great timing for you guys down there so far. The pattern hasn’t exactly been favorable at all for winter storms being a La Niña with no STJ but the 12/8 event was a perfectly timed wave with a cold push and now today’s storm develops despite what looked like a meh pattern 5-6 days ago for anything. I’ve seen El Niño winters where timing has never worked out once the entire season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
strongwxnc Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 18z GFS said, "No ice for you!"Toss it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceagewhereartthou Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 21 minutes ago, strongwxnc said: Toss it . Interesting, even though it's the GFS and if has performed poorly from this range, that map perfectly mirrors what we've seen with the first two winter storms. Precip max to our west and southwest with storm 1, and precip max to our southeast and east with storm 2. Where's the precip min for both you ask? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 It looks like we torch after our potential event next Monday. I'm becoming increasingly worried by the cold air being shown to abandon the entire continent in the LR. My biggest fear is it takes a month for us to get back to a favorable pattern and everybody knows your best events happen here before Valentines Day. We'll see but i'm afraid that CLT might get hung with yet another T. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 37 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: It looks like we torch after our potential event next Monday. I'm becoming increasingly worried by the cold air being shown to abandon the entire continent in the LR. My biggest fear is it takes a month for us to get back to a favorable pattern and everybody knows your best events happen here before Valentines Day. We'll see but i'm afraid that CLT might get hung with yet another T. JB says the January thaw is real, but winter comes roaring back in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 42 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: JB says the January thaw is real, but winter comes roaring back in February Don't quote the met you criticize all the time. Lol you following him Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, POWERSTROKE said: Don't quote the met you criticize all the time. Lol you following him I like to keep his quotes around the threads, so I can prove how wrong he is! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 17 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: I like to keep his quotes around the threads, so I can prove how wrong he is! Cold is in Russia, that’s a shame. Even in our warmest Nina’s we are good for Feb dusting. We got that going for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Enjoyed tracking this last event. Now it's time for leg 2 of the Triple Crown lol. Only 4 1/2 days out. Potential for big Ice storm way it's looking. We are having an awesome winter, hopefully it can keep it up. After being BN Nov and Dec. RDU is -20 BN so far this young month. Also they will/should have eclipsed atleast 50% of their annual snowfall avg. Multiple locations across the SE are 200-300 % AN annual snowfall. Thing I'm most interested in checking is the record for how long PTI Greensboro has gone staying below freezing. Missed rising above today and could very well be Sunday,possibly Tuesday depending on late weekend storm before we get above the 32 degree mark. We are going past day 4 I beleive. Very impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GunBlade Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 5 hours ago, Queencitywx said: This thing kicks off at the time and temperature the canadian thinks it will, the entire city is going to be a skating rink. People close to me can come have a beer with me and stay warm. Just recently got our generator converted to run off our natural gas, tested and working, and got it wired into to our electrical panel so we are good to go! If for some terrible reason the NG goes out, it still runs on gas and propane as well. This was also a temporary test connection. It’s now connected to a 50 ft NG hose to put on the side of our house with no windows and away from rooms, which is also closer to our panel and minimizes noise. And yes my grill runs on NG as well so we can grill out while ice skating! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 18z GFS doesn’t look all that bad in the LR. Won’t take a lot to build the cold back over here again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: 18z GFS doesn’t look all that bad in the LR. Won’t take a lot to build the cold back over here again. Lol! Go play in the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Lol! Go play in the snow! I tried to slide. It didn’t work out well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Thinking both GEM and GFS are gonna be a no go for Monday. edit: maybe just the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Nope, gone on the 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: Nope, gone on the 0z CMC is still icy. GFS is too at the onset, just minimal qpf on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: CMC is still icy. GFS is too at the onset, just minimal qpf on the GFS I’ll have to wait on the QPF but my guess is the CMC is also minimal. It didn’t look very impressive. Either way, it’s not the storm that’s been portrayed for the last 24-36 hours. Advisory level, at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I’ll have to wait on the QPF but my guess is the CMC is also minimal. It didn’t look very impressive. Either way, it’s not the storm that’s been portrayed for the last 24-36 hours. Advisory level, at best. As cold as it’s been and is, .10-.20 would be no bueno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: As cold as it’s been and is, .10-.20 would be no bueno. Well no, it wouldn’t be good. It’s just not a major winter storm at this point is all. Looks like it develops a secondary in the piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Well no, it wouldn’t be good. It’s just not a major winter storm at this point is all. Looks like it develops a secondary in the piedmont. Be curious as to what the Euro says. GFS wants to send the low to the gulf. CMC semi cuts and transfers I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: I like to keep his quotes around the threads, so I can prove how wrong he is! I hear ya. Hadnt been wrong on pattern but u know that. Maybe we both get ome snow or ice monday and agin late week. If not enjoy the warm up coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shahroz98 Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Ensembles have been keeping the southeast below average through the entire run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 12z EURO was very moist for western NC and east of the blue ridge. Easily warning criteria if frozen. Temps looked weird, 2meter looked like some areas (pockets) east of the mountains got stuck at freezing throughout all of the qpf. Most areas get glazed at the onset, Piedmont included. Mountains don't look good for all ice, as they are positioned too far west, but they do flip back to snow as main moisture leaves. I wouldn't be surprised to see the EURO and CMC cut back on qpf given dry air. Will have to watch the trends. Timing may also dictate on whether its more wintry or rainy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 CMC solution dumps 1-2" of heavy rain on top of frozen rivers in the NC high country into south-west Virginia. We need a warm-up before any rain event or there may be some trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 0z EURO is icy for north Georgia, upstate SC, and south-west NC as it appears timing favors that area. Still a glaze north and west of Charlotte during the day time hours, particularly several foothill counties, where some areas dont go above freezing all day with 0.4” qpf or more. Many areas see cold rain 33-34 degrees in the mountains and piedmont. Eastern blue ridge appears to be the favored area for now. If timing sped up with the event, I would think more areas would be in play for icing. Winter Storm Warning criteria is certainly on the table for a few areas, but of course, expect changes this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Red1976Red Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Snow wise, EURO tries to bring down a few inches in the mountains if the onset conditions are supportive, which may largely depend on a faster start time. It shows north-east Georgia to areas south-west of Asheville at play for 2”+. Higher peaks could really get raked if the stars allign. Snow Shoe, West Virginia may be a good place to visit if the past 3 EURO runs are even close to being right. Of course, snow cover could help keep the temps supportive of freezing rain vs rain during the day too. I really over analyzed the euro tonight, don’t take it as a forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 Bless the GFS... it's trying. Colder and more QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 4, 2018 Share Posted January 4, 2018 1 hour ago, JoshM said: Bless the GFS... it's trying. Colder and more QPF. It's over! TWC has ice on Monday in my local forecast! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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