Poimen Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 If we can eek out some accumulation here it would give us at least one winter event in each wintry month: Dec. Jan. Feb (Super Bowl Ice) and March. That's not a bad winter and makes up for an overall lousy February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Yeah, *IF* we got a system like that, I think you could cut those clown map totals down to 25%.. 1/2" realistically would accumulate on grassy surfaces in Wake.. Air temp, soil temps... Mike Moss on WRAL was mentioning it yesterday, which is very early for WRAL, but even he said that soil temps were a big issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 6z GEFS much improved compared to the 0z GEFS. 0z 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 6z GFS was a paste event for the foothills. It probably wouldnt be any better than 6:1 but MRN had 1.1" of snow QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 hour ago, Hvward said: 6z GEFS much improved compared to the 0z GEFS. GEFS trend loop. Davis Strait positive anomaly & Newfoundland low haven't really changed. Gulf of Alaska low & western ridging have trended west. TN Valley trough is more separated and farther south. Best case scenario is for that backside wave to close off strong and sink farther south into Dixie in the Mar '09 mold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 19 minutes ago, griteater said: GEFS trend loop. Davis Strait positive anomaly & Newfoundland low haven't really changed. Gulf of Alaska low & western ridging have trended west. TN Valley trough is more separated and farther south. Best case scenario is for that backside wave to close off strong and sink farther south into Dixie in the Mar '09 mold. You think we can avoid a coastal transfer? Be nice if it just drop down and deepen as it rolls across Dixie ots Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 GSP saying they have to watch the models very closely, just a slight shift of the low to the south could cause impressive snow amounts lower than the highest peaks. Come on Mr. Low pressure, please go south of us a little more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 51 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: You think we can avoid a coastal transfer? Be nice if it just drop down and deepen as it rolls across Dixie ots 12z NAM has your scenario...runs sfc low from S Bama to Wilmington and flips north central NC over to some snow in heavy precip...snow into southern and central VA as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 13 minutes ago, griteater said: 12z NAM has your scenario...runs sfc low from S Bama to Wilmington and flips north central NC over to some snow in heavy precip...snow into southern and central VA as well Definitely interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 12z ICON amps up the low right off the NC/VA shore similar to the 6z run. Looks like the wave digs a tad father south this run. If we can get that surface low to track along the FL Panhandle and a slightly quicker phase, many on this board would be in business. I don't think that it is out of the question, but what it all boils down to right now is that we are tracking a phasing system that will likely bomb out. I wouldn't expect any model to have this system nailed down at this point in time. Lets see what the 12z GFS and CMC throw out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mrdaddyman Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 55 minutes ago, Hvward said: 12z ICON amps up the low right off the NC/VA shore similar to the 6z run. Looks like the wave digs a tad father south this run. If we can get that surface low to track along the FL Panhandle and a slightly quicker phase, many on this board would be in business. I don't think that it is out of the question, but what it all boils down to right now is that we are tracking a phasing system that will likely bomb out. I wouldn't expect any model to have this system nailed down at this point in time. Lets see what the 12z GFS and CMC throw out. Yeah, it's not a good track for RDU and points SE. Starts out good over extreme southern Alabama but then makes a beeline for Wilmington. Needs to track about 75 - 100 miles further SE. Not much cold or dry air to work with either. Edit: I smell a 35 degree driving cold rain with this one outside of the mountains and Northern NC into VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 12z GFS closes off the wave through TN. Similar to last run, but maybe a little better. Looks good in northern mtns into SW VA...and it tries to flip to snow toward the end east of the mtns before departing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 12z CMC looks a little warmer than the GFS out front, but it also flips to some snow before the system departs (as upper wave rolls thru) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 12Z GFS looks like a cold rain for most east of the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said: 12Z GFS looks like a cold rain for most east of the mountains. Might want to look again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 1 minute ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Might want to look again. I did... I see the blues, but I'm not buying it with surface and boundary layer temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 I keep hammering this home but the evolution of this event reminds me a great deal of 3/1/09. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 3 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I keep hammering this home but the evolution of this event reminds me a great deal of 3/1/09. Being 2 weeks later is not going to help us. Cold air marginal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tramadoc Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 GFS Clown Map trying to reel me in!Don't fall for it!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 21 minutes ago, CentralNC said: Being 2 weeks later is not going to help us. Cold air marginal. It snowed two inches here last year around almost that same exact date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 24 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: I keep hammering this home but the evolution of this event reminds me a great deal of 3/1/09. Hope so. That was the last time I've experienced Thundersnow. That being said, the ULL seems to open up on most of the models as it heads southeastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 http://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_KRUQ.txt Salisburyhttp://68.226.77.253/text/1DegGFS/GFS_KHKY.txt Hickory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Ukie is further south at 72,1009 low in the Fla panhandle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
broken024 Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 This reminds me of March last year. Models showed a DC storm and it kept coming further and further south. Ended up with close to 3 inches south of charlotte. Might have even been the same day. It was around March 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Using the french UKMET maps, I dont think it's going to be cold enough but i'll reserve judgement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Here's a another view of the Canadian. This was a sizable shift southward from 0z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNC Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 33 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: It snowed two inches here last year around almost that same exact date. It can certainly happen. Would like to see model consensus before I am in on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Wow, the UKMET is REALLY south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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