FallsLake Posted March 6, 2018 Share Posted March 6, 2018 From RAH: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 315 PM Tuesday... The first half of the long term forecast looks fairly quiet but certainly cool for this time of year through Saturday. Dry weather is expected with temperatures only topping out in the upper 40s to low 50s with a warmup coming on Saturday as we might get some southerly return flow around a Bermuda High ahead that will surge temps up towards 60 degrees. The next weather maker for central NC will come in the form of a low pressure system forming over the Mississippi Valley and heading due east across Tennessee and across the Appalachians. Model agreement has been hard to come by with this system because there are many factors at play including a very strong exiting low off the coast of New England, the low in the MS valley and potentially a third coming out of Canada with high pressure squeezed in between all three in addition to the Bermuda High. Any or all of these features could be a major player in how the forecast evolves over the next several days. Currently it does look like we can expect precipitation beginning on Saturday night and lasting through at least Sunday night, maybe longer if the northern low materializes. For now forecasting all liquid but will have to keep an eye on the situation as thicknesses begin to flirt with values that could potentially bring some winter P-types into play although it is very premature to say exactly what that might be. Things will generally clear out for the first part of the work week, especially heading into Tuesday but temperatures will still be belownormal with highs in the low to mid 50s and lows in the low to mid 30s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 OZ Canadian is throwing a rope at 138 and trying to lasso several folks back in for one last chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 The ICON isnt digging at 6z like it has. Sends the low through the OV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 If the UKMET was about 75 miles south, whoa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: If the UKMET was about 75 miles south, whoa. Yep it wouldn't take much over the next few days. Even a closer call big frosty. I'm begging to think the mtns at the least have the potential to have their biggest storm of the season. Espeacilly northern mtn counties. See if the euro can get on board here in a few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: Yep it wouldn't take much over the next few days. Even a closer call big frosty. I'm begging to think the mtns at the least have the potential to have their biggest storm of the season. Espeacilly northern mtn counties. See if the euro can get on board here in a few. Do have any of the precip maps for the 12z UKMET? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, NC_WX10 said: Do have any of the precip maps for the 12z UKMET? Their juicy no doubt: Heres the GFS at 12z. futher north than ukmet. Its posted in mtn thread. You want ULL to go underneath you. Obviously UKMET is prefered track and we need it a little nudge futher south. But its wrapped up no doubt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Heres the UKIE. well see where it all stands at in 24hrs: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 15 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Heres the UKIE. well see where it all stands at in 24hrs: Awesome thanks, I'll take that look. Even with the latest trends though, I'm not sold on temperatures cooperating for even us in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 12z Euro moves toward the Ukie GFS idea of a quicker phase. Euro is much farther south with the surface low, but a blend of the LP track from all 3 would bode well for a good portion of NC imo.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 12z Euro moves toward the Ukie GFS idea of a quicker phase. Euro is much farther south with the surface low, but a blend of the LP track from all 3 would bode well for a good portion of NC imo.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 SUNDAY/ MONDAY exactly 25 years ago , as I graced the hallow grounds of Cullowhee. I expeierenced my first true Blizzard and 1 foot plus snowfall. Will this Sun/ Mon event ring in the 25th yr anniversary of the great 1993 Superstorm with reminder of how great a wound up March storm can be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 11 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: SUNDAY/ MONDAY exactly 25 years ago , as I graced the hallow grounds of Cullowhee. I expeierenced my first true Blizzard and 1 foot plus snowfall. Will this Sun/ Mon event ring in the 25th yr anniversary of the great 1993 Superstorm with reminder of how great a wound up March storm can be? If so, I sure hope it's a little farther east. I got less than 2" while folks to my west were buried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 49 minutes ago, Hvward said: 12z Euro moves toward the Ukie GFS idea of a quicker phase. Euro is much farther south with the surface low, but a blend of the LP track from all 3 would bode well for a good portion of NC imo. . Really gets southside VA this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 and it's closer than it looks for places from Morganton to Winston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 13 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: and it's closer than it looks for places from Morganton to Winston. Taken verbatim, what does it show for Southside VA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 57 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: SUNDAY/ MONDAY exactly 25 years ago , as I graced the hallow grounds of Cullowhee. I expeierenced my first true Blizzard and 1 foot plus snowfall. Will this Sun/ Mon event ring in the 25th yr anniversary of the great 1993 Superstorm with reminder of how great a wound up March storm can be? yes sir I remember it well. Was 21 years old plowing on a tractor with no cab LOL. Came a long way since then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 1 hour ago, POWERSTROKE said: yes sir I remember it well. Was 21 years old plowing on a tractor with no cab LOL. Came a long way since then Amazing how time flies as I keep counting the B-Days. Seems like yesterday in my mind along with alot of other things. Cant imagine our wx boards during a superstorm1993 or Carolina crusher event. Heck even all those late 90's cat 3 LFs on our coast. Anyway we need some more wiggling and luck outside mtns in NC, buts its just as doable as it is undoable. next 2 to 3 (12hr) model cycles will be telling. Maybe we can all get one more bump from winter before the sweat season locks in for 6 months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Happy Hour GFS delivers. Its way futher south than it was 12z. Need this thing to rev up UKIE like. Not worried about it climbing North as the confluence should keep it suppressed. But we need it to amp big time so we can cool the column. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 2 hours ago, NCSNOW said: SUNDAY/ MONDAY exactly 25 years ago , as I graced the hallow grounds of Cullowhee. I expeierenced my first true Blizzard and 1 foot plus snowfall. Will this Sun/ Mon event ring in the 25th yr anniversary of the great 1993 Superstorm with reminder of how great a wound up March storm can be? Like NJ banging out 15-20" in just a few hours today? Yeah, I want one of those March storms.....not. Not here in the Triad anyway. It would be lights out, tree destruction, flower slaughtering mayhem given how warm it has been. Agreed that March storms can sometimes wind up to beast mode. I would just prefer that happen on a winter that has been chilly thru Feb to keep the buds dormant. Thank God I cancelled my trip to NYC today. Hammer time up there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 Cold rain,Maybe some snow at the end, As of now!! .SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight. Lows in the mid 30s. Chance of rain 60 percent. .SUNDAY...Rain. Highs in the mid 40s. Chance of rain 80 percent. .SUNDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with a chance of snow. Rain, mainly in the evening. Lows around 30. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. .MONDAY...Partly sunny. A chance of snow in the morning. Highs in the upper 40s. Chance of snow 50 percent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted March 7, 2018 Share Posted March 7, 2018 33 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Happy Hour GFS delivers. Its way futher south than it was 12z. Need this thing to rev up UKIE like. Not worried about it climbing North as the confluence should keep it suppressed. But we need it to amp big time so we can cool the column. Yeah, 18z was a central/northern mtn special right there. A deep diving upper wave makes sense with the western ridge spike and cutoff low east of Maine. -NAO and a south trend...we've seen it before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 Sad that we had to waste last month to finally get a good pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 4 hours ago, NCSNOW said: Amazing how time flies as I keep counting the B-Days. Seems like yesterday in my mind along with alot of other things. Cant imagine our wx boards during a superstorm1993 or Carolina crusher event. Heck even all those late 90's cat 3 LFs on our coast. Anyway we need some more wiggling and luck outside mtns in NC, buts its just as doable as it is undoable. next 2 to 3 (12hr) model cycles will be telling. Maybe we can all get one more bump from winter before the sweat season locks in for 6 months. I won't say who called this several weeks ago. They mentioned the possibility when everybody laughed. We shall see if they are right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherHawk Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 5 hours ago, NCSNOW said: Happy Hour GFS delivers. Its way futher south than it was 12z. Need this thing to rev up UKIE like. Not worried about it climbing North as the confluence should keep it suppressed. But we need it to amp big time so we can cool the column. 18z further south than the 12z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tarheelwx Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 00z NAM over Gainesville at 84 hrs. TW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 10 minutes ago, WeatherHawk said: 18z further south than the 12z? MA thread is currently pooping their pants at the thought of this being suppressed to the south of them. I would kind of hate that, though. Outside the Mountains, it's too late for us to do anything with this except get some cold rain, with maybe some wet flakes mixed in. I would almost rather throw it to them so they can actually do something with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 0z ukmet has a 994 sitting 20 miles off Atlantic Beach in 100 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 GFS Clown Map trying to reel me in! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted March 8, 2018 Share Posted March 8, 2018 23 minutes ago, JoshM said: GFS Clown Map trying to reel me in! yeah just saw that. This is very interesting, but even if we can get the snow line (storm) south there will be all the normal issues (air temp, surface temp, etc.). I would say for folks outside the mountains a win would be just seeing snow fall from the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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